Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

Yes, and I am waiting for the January race to make more firm predictions.

I have a hard time deciding between 50, 51, and 52 Dem.. 53 D and 49 D are possible but very unlikely.

The HOD may be disproportionally awful for the GOP if 2025, 2027, or 2029 or Dem waves.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

Yes, and I am waiting for the January race to make more firm predictions.

I have a hard time deciding between 50, 51, and 52 Dem.. 53 D and 49 D are possible but very unlikely.

The HOD may be disproportionally awful for the GOP if 2025, 2027, or 2029 or Dem waves.

The State Senate is at least Lean D.  The scenario where it would flip would involve a Dem collapse in Hampton Roads/Richmond.  They are likely losing a seat in the mountains that was formerly gerrymandered to pick up college towns, but there is a new double digit Biden district in the Richmond suburbs for them. 

The HOD comes down to several outer NOVA Biden->Youngkin districts that were either narrowly won by Spanberger or narrowly lost by Wexton this year.  Getting to 50/50 looks fairly easy, but Dems need at least one downballot Republican NOVA seat for control.

Yea.. despite Luria's loss (which was to be expected to be honest).. I do not see a dem collapse occurring in Hampton Roads or Richmond area.

Democrats are holding up in those two regions better than you would have expected considering everything that has happened since the 2020 election. Every jurisdiction in Hampton Roads swung Dem in 2022 from 2021 even.

[jamestroll]

This result is not surprising to me given that McClellan locked up virtually all of the establishment support in a state like Virginia which has a lot of establishment-oriented voters (and a firehouse primary only makes this more pronounced).

I like McClellan and believe she will make a great addition to congress.

Statewide she would be weaker. Likely would defeat a hard conservative, but would lose to youngkin types. Mainstream conservative would depend on the climate.

But she can pretty much have that richmond/ southside VA  area seat for life.

[jamestroll]

This result is not surprising to me given that McClellan locked up virtually all of the establishment support in a state like Virginia which has a lot of establishment-oriented voters (and a firehouse primary only makes this more pronounced).

I like McClellan and believe she will make a great addition to congress.

Statewide she would be weaker. Likely would defeat a hard conservative, but would lose to youngkin types. Mainstream conservative would depend on the climate.

But she can pretty much have that richmond/ southside VA  area seat for life.

If VA-04 is hypothetically condensed to just metro Richmond one day (and hence less black), could she become vulnerable to a primary from a "white liberal" type? She seems pretty inoffensive so my guess would be no.

Highly unlikely.. and the commission would probably always want a black plurality or majority district in Virginia even though it is not necessary for a district to be majority black for a black candidate to win.

She is about as inoffensive and establishment as you can get for that area. She is safe.

I am just glad she wasn't the gubernatorial nominee in 2021... she would have lost by 5 to 6 points. Her comments on schools and covid would have wrote themselves in ads. lol. Though, the HOD results would have probably been the same.. higher black turn out may have saved a few seats.

But that is all the past.

Richmond/henrico/chesterfield do not seem like the type of jurisdictions who would prefer a white liberal over a black female really.

[jamestroll]

Since specials are weird:
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1628207661123620866?cxt=HHwWhMC-3bePx5gtA...

Ah I remember Gainesville. Quite Republican area

[jamestroll]

Damn, these results are wild. I know that low turnout special elections can give strange outcomes, but it's nice to see that Democratic voters continue to be engaged and energetic.

Yes, also this is not the kind of district where you would expect Dems to overperform in a special.  Could be a very good sign for VA legislative Dems, because there are several swing seats in both chambers that are all or mostly within this CD.

Everything I have seen recently suggests to me that Northern VA remains solid Dem but it is clear the anti-trump people only people have largely reverted back to the GOP, but Hampton Roads and Richmond area are moving left very consistently.

I do not know if mcclellan could have won statewide in 2021, but may have saved a few southern state legislative seats.

JCF, despite being declared an unbeatable titan by the online left, would have lost by at least five.

But the issues in 2021 would have been challenging for any Democrat in VA.