Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[BuckeyeNut]

This will be a VERY low turn-out election. Turner will be the front runner in a fractured field, and the establishment lane sure looks like it will be crowded.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

I’m saying Akron isn’t gonna decide this thing, Cuyahoga County will.

20% of primary voters are going to be in Akron and there are already 3 Cuyahoga County candidates in this thing. Summit County will matter, and until a Summit County candidate gets in, Tuner should be considered the frontrunner as the one with statewide name ID and a national fundraising apparatus.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

I’m saying Akron isn’t gonna decide this thing, Cuyahoga County will.

20% of primary voters are going to be in Akron and there are already 3 Cuyahoga County candidates in this thing. Summit County will matter, and until a Summit County candidate gets in, Tuner should be considered the frontrunner as the one with statewide name ID and a national fundraising apparatus.

1) Jeff Johnson is a joke

2) Bold of you to assume Samples speaks for the Summit County Democratic machine.

1) Jeff Johnson is pretty close to Marcia Fudge. She recruited him to run against Sandra Willians in the 2018 state senate primary. He lost, but Johnson has a base, which will be a super low turnout affair. Every vote matters in this election, and the establishment can't afford a "joke" stealing jokes from Shontel Brown.

2) Samples is pretty popular in Akron! Even if she doesn't speak for the Summit County machine, they're only liable to get seriously invested if a Summit County candidate runs. In their absence, Samples is a strong surrogate to have for a portion of the district that none of the candidates can afford to ignore.

Like her or no, it's delusional to deny that Nina Turner is the front runner at this point.

[BuckeyeNut]

DNS registrations indicating former State Representative John Barnes plans to enter the race for OH-11 have popped up. Barnes was a DINO in the legislature, never formally caucusing with the Republicans, but he might as well have. Barnes is essentially Cleveland's Ruben Diaz Sr. and won't win over any establishment support in the primary. Still, he has a loyal following that never bucked him despite multiple attempts to have him primaried by more liberal, mainstream Democrats.

Turner endorsed by a transphobe:

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1339321772638867457?s=20

She also endorsed Joe Biden back in March. Didn't see any concern trolling then.

Tulsi hadn't outed herself as a pro-life TERF in March.

[BuckeyeNut]

DNS registrations indicating former State Representative John Barnes plans to enter the race for OH-11 have popped up. Barnes was a DINO in the legislature, never formally caucusing with the Republicans, but he might as well have. Barnes is essentially Cleveland's Ruben Diaz Sr. and won't win over any establishment support in the primary. Still, he has a loyal following that never bucked him despite multiple attempts to have him primaried by more liberal, mainstream Democrats.

Turner endorsed by a transphobe:

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1339321772638867457?s=20

She also endorsed Joe Biden back in March. Didn't see any concern trolling then.

Tulsi hadn't outed herself as a pro-life TERF in March.

She's neither, as far as I can tell.

She's pro life but the terf label is not fair.

I believe she has always been in favor of abortion being legal (i.e. pro-choice).

It's getting off-topic, but Tusli Gabbard is transphobic (TERF does mean a bit more than that, so perhaps not the right word) and is pro-life. Of course, her endorsement doesn't matter. Nor does Marianne Williamson's. Neither is popular in Northeast Ohio, and neither is in a position to leverage any resources for Tuner's aid. Bernie Sanders isn't particularly popular in this district either, but his support has already been a boon to Tuner's fundraising.

[BuckeyeNut]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

[BuckeyeNut]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

Governor, someday. Sykes might take a detour to Congress, but it would make sense to hold out for the lines to be redrawn if she does. It is moderately likely there will be a Summit County-based U.S. House seat in 2022, and there hasn't really one of those since the 1990s.

[BuckeyeNut]

Said house seat can also be Safe R

That's doubtful. It would be tough to split Summit County twice and have both seats be safe for Republicans.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

Governor, someday. Sykes might take a detour to Congress, but it would make sense to hold out for the lines to be redrawn if she does. It is moderately likely there will be a Summit County-based U.S. House seat in 2022, and there hasn't really one of those since the 1990s.

Sykes has no chance at Governor

Not saying she's likely to win, but it's what she wants most. Sykes styles herself the next Stacey Abrams for a reason.

[BuckeyeNut]

Nina Turner's son is a police officer, and her husband is a retired police officer.

Will that disqualify her?

She'll be seen as part of the corrupt system. Once you are a part of the "family", you are complicit.

The Democratic Party has a strain of anti-police sentiment baked in with the leftwing movements.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/7/18/my_heart_aches_sen_nina_turner

bronz, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent statement were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, & may God have mercy on your soul.

It's not dumb what I said, it is the truth. When people find out that she is connected to cops, she could lose her leftwing base.

No, caricaturing the left as a group that will cancel somebody because their relatives are police officers is indeed dumb.

I see it happen all the time, even in New Jersey. A lot of people have been canceled because they are associated to cops, etc.

I had a friend unfriend someone because her daughter is a cop.

I don't know how to say this any more politely, but your sense of scale is off.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Turner does win, which seems increasingly likely to me, I am very doubtful she would run for President in 2024. Maybe someday, there's a strong tradition of left-wing U.S. Representatives from Cleveland making pointless Presidential bids, but not in 2024.

[BuckeyeNut]

Obviously I was never one of the people who thought Turner was noncompetitive but one must wonder wtf the Cuyahoga Democrats are thinking. There are now four non-Turner Democrats running for this seat, which does nothing but split the moderate/establishment vote and risk a MI-13 scenario, plus there have been no high profile endorsements of anyone besides Nina Turner, plus she has way more money than everyone else combined. They might as well roll out the red carpet at this point.

Barnes isn't really a Democrat, so CCDP had no leverage in keeping him out. He was elected to four consecutive terms in the Ohio House of Representatives from 2010 - 2018 and always caucuses with the Republicans. He is the Ruben Diaz Sr. of this election.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why it takes a year to full a vacant seat.

It won't. It will take eight months. As for why? It's Ohio law. As was said above, there are only three valid special election dates in Ohio: the first Monday after the first Tuesday in May, August, and November. It's also Ohio law that the special election can only be scheduled once a seat is vacant. County Boards of Election are mailing overseas ballots for this year's May primary this week, so the seat is being filled as soon as legally possible.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why it takes a year to full a vacant seat.

It won't. It will take eight months. As for why? It's Ohio law. As was said above, there are only three valid special election dates in Ohio: the first Monday after the first Tuesday in May, August, and November. It's also Ohio law that the special election can only be scheduled once a seat is vacant. County Boards of Election are mailing overseas ballots for this year's May primary this week, so the seat is being filled as soon as legally possible.

Fudge resigned 11 days ago, though, so were those ballots already being printed & mailed out by Mar. 10th? Because if not, then it seems to me that they could've just stuck to the original May/Aug. timetable without many (if any) headaches.

Again, the election can't be called until there is an actual vacancy. It would be absurd to allow County Boards of Election to print ballots for a hypothetical election for numerous reasons.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/SethARichardson/status/1376920893730004992

Ngl, this is actually a pretty surprising endorsement, as Griffin is very much a member of the establishment wing: he was literally just a Biden delegate last year. He should've been one of the surest gets for Brown, who's obviously much more connected to the Cuyahoga County Dems. Maybe Griffin just sees the writing on the wall & wants to curry favor with his constituents' next member of Congress so he can more easily be able to work with her in the future?

Yeah, I'm convinced of the bolded now, given the mayor's endorsement.

The Mayor is probably trying to save his own ass, TBH. He's not exactly popular, and some of his allies recently teased that the Mayor plans to run for an unprecedented 5th term.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why do some people dislike Turner?  It's because of who she actually was from 2015 up through about six weeks ago when she needed to clean up her image to get elected to Congress.

In 2016 she and Tulsi Gabbard were Bernie's two henchwomen who relentlessly promoted conspiracy theories, especially about the DNC.  They would go say all these crazy things while Bernie kept his hands clean and pretended not to know what they were saying.  She was openly encouraging all the crazy s--t at the DNC convention when people were protesting about the rigged election and spreading all sorts of wild conspiracy theories.  She refused to endorse Clinton and kept promoting the Green Party, to the point where she was even offered the Green Party VP nomination which she teased for a while but eventually turned down.

She cleaned up her act a little between 2016 and 2020 because she was trying to become a more mainstream figure, appearing on CNN and such.  But she was still doing a lot of the conspiracy-mongering.  Like when she led that march to the DNC HQ.  Like it's so embarrassing.  Also she's been involved in fringe-y third party movements like the People's Party.  (contrast with Tulsi who ran on an anti-DNC conspiracy theory platform in 2020 like it was still 2016).

During the 2020 election she again functioned as Bernie's attack dog and would go on TV to promote all the smears against Biden, once again including the smears that Bernie didn't want to use himself.  And then after it was all over and Biden won, she famously said that voting for Biden was "like eating a bowl of s--t", once again using her platform to undermine the Democratic nominee just like in 2016.



So that's a pretty quick summary of why people don't like her.  I'm not sure what her actual redeeming qualities are.  In my eyes she's always just been cringey, over-the-top, and hyperaggressive in her demeanor, but I guess some people see that as "passionate" and "energizing."  Even if that were true though, she's spent the last 5 years using that passion/energy for one primary purpose, that purpose being to attack the DNC, Democratic candidates and the Democratic Party.

I'm sure someone will roll in here with a clip of where she used her passion/energy to promote M4A or some other part of the Bernie platform, yes she does also do some things besides attack Democrats but it's mostly just attacking Democrats.  Even 2017-2019 when there was no Bernie to promote, she was on CNN just tearing down Democrats all the time and getting into shouting matches with other pundits.

If she wanted to run on her record and her actual personality, and she won an election anyway, then I would be pretty surprised but hey good for the Bernie win that the voters bought their conspiracy-theory anti-DNC BS.  But that's not what she's doing -- instead she's lying to everyone and pretending she's a good, loyal Democrat.  And spending an enormous amount of money, raised through the Sanders network (not from Cleveland), to hammer home that lie.  So it's doubly insulting because first of all we're getting this lunatic in Congress and second of all she's basically tricking the voters into electing her.

To the Nina fans on here... aren't you embarrassed that she's running by pretending to be someone she's not?  What does it say about her that she basically has to disown everything she's done for the last 5 years, the stuff you loved her for?

What a bunch of nonsense.

Turner's always been much friendlier with the Democratic establishment here in Ohio than the national party. Very little has changed. (She performed terribly in the election for Secretary of State in 2014, but of the five statewide candidates, she was the base's choice, bar none.) Also, the plurality of Turner's fundraising came from in-state. Not what you've seen from Justice Democrats elsewhere.

I guess what I'm saying here is: stay mad. You don't get the dynamic at play in this election.

[BuckeyeNut]

Watch DeWine schedule the special election for this seat earlier than the OH-11 special

He legally cannot.

There could be snowball’s chance that democrats pick this up, or atleast come close a la SC-05

Democrats are not picking up a seat that is 60% rural. This seat is like VA-05 - relatively “close” but not at all winnable for Dems.

Eh. Athens and Ohio University are a substantial part of that rural population. With a good candidate in a special election environment, it could be winnable. Have to see who gets in.

I also imagine this seat recedes significantly into the Columbus area going into 2022.

EDIT: the 60% rural number also comes from the 2010 census, which is outdated. Taking a look at OH-15 in DRA, we can see it's over-populated by 35,000. That's going to be almost entirely Franklin County, with some Fairfield County mixed in.

[BuckeyeNut]

Athens Mayor John Patterson is considering a run for OH-15. He would probably be the strongest recruit for Democrats. Patterson is both liberal enough to play in Columbus and folksy enough to play in the rural counties you still need to hit 40% in. (I find his speaking style is remarkably similar to that of Tom Hanks.) All of the other Democratic candidates under consideration live in Franklin County, which is unideal.

State Sen. Stephanie Kunze would be a good candidate here. She won re-election by about 100 votes as Trump was losing her district by double digits.

If she gets the nomination, I think Kunze would be unbeatable. I find it unlikely she could win the Republican nomination, though. Kunze held on in her Biden+15% district because she is exceptionally moderate, and while Franklin County makes up about 1/3rd of OH-15, far fewer than 1 in 3 Republican primary voters live in Franklin County.

[BuckeyeNut]

If I looked correctly, in 2018 Stivers beat the Democrat by 1 point in Franklin County’s part of the district, and by 5 in 2020. Im guessing this is the suburbs of Columbus and not the city itself, right?

Predominately, yes. A few precincts in the city proper, but overwhelmingly suburban. You also have the few rural(ish) townships within Franklin County in its southeast corner.

[BuckeyeNut]

(She performed terribly in the election for Secretary of State in 2014, but of the five statewide candidates, she was the base's choice, bar none.)

What does that even mean lol - she got the lowest vote share of any Dem running statewide in Ohio in 2014. Are you arguing that among the people who did vote straight ticket Dem, they were most excited about Nina? That feels pretty hard to prove.

Edit: sorry, she slightly outperformed scandal-plagued FitzGerald but underperformed the rest. Think my point / question stands.

It isn't. I was at ODP in the summer of 2014. People who volunteered overwhelmingly did so because Nina Turner was running. They couldn't have cared less about Ed FitzGerald, and there was only mild enthusiasm for David Pepper, Connie Pillich, and John Carney.

All of this is to say that, in an election decided by the base of the party, as this election will be, Turner won't have any problems getting the support she needs, even from more "normal" Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

The election for this seat will share dates with the special election for Fudge's seat.

Primary in August, general in November.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kunze is so #elitist it’s hilarious. She’s pro-choice and anti-gun but has a 100% from the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Her winning the primary would be Atlas memes come true, lol.

How is someone pro-choice and anti-gun supposed to win a GOP primary in a Trump + 14 district?

She won't. Let's look at the primary for OH-12 in the 2018 special election for comparison, shall we?

In OH-12, 30% of all voters live in Franklin County. The percentage of the Republican primary voters living in the county was far fewer, just 24%. There were two serious Franklin County Republicans who ran for the seat. While they were able to get a combined 48% of the vote in Franklin County, they got killed outside of it, which doomed both of their candidacies. Balderson was able to win by getting 29% in a field of nine candidates. He did that by getting 40% of the vote in Licking County, which cast 25% of the vote, and 21% of the vote in Delaware County, which cast 30% of the vote.

In OH-15, 35% of all voters live in Franklin County, but as with OH-12, only 24% of Republican primary voters live in Franklin County. Republicans outside Franklin County will not support Kunze in a primary, and there aren't the votes within it to get her over. Of the candidates currently running, I'd suspect State Representative Jeff LaRe is favored for two reasons. One, he is the only candidate whose whole district is within OH-15, and two, he represents Fairfield County, which will cast the plurality of Republican primary votes.

[BuckeyeNut]

To DTC's point about being pro-choice and anti-gun, Kunze has a 42% rating from the NRA and a 64% rating from both NARAL and Planned Parenthood. I just don't see how she makes it through.

[BuckeyeNut]

State Representative Jeff LaRe (R-Violet Township) is the first candidate to have won formal endorsements in the race, having picked up the support of 10 of his statehouse colleagues. Notable names on the list include Majority Floor Leader Bill Seitz and Assistant Majority Whip Cindy Abrams. None of LaRe's announced endorsements come from the district, but Seitz and Abrams' backing indicates he will have strong financial support.

[BuckeyeNut]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

Yeah I was really wrong about this race.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

It doesn't really work as a "burn" when the people you're talking about owned up to getting the race wrong over a month ago without prompting, but thanks for playing

While we're on the subject of predictions that didn't age well though, how did that Trump will win re-election prediction work out for you?  

I just find it pretty hilarious that many people can assert like a fact early on how a primary is going to go, and you guys definitely let your dislike of Turner get in control of that. However, that's cool that you admitted you were wrong.

Pretty well, if you actually judge on the margins and details, and not on a binary win/loss method. But I'll say it again in case anyone wants to keep lying about me: I was wrong, and I don't have any problem admitting that. I still have my predictions right below my avatar too. But I'm also not going to say I was more wrong than the people predicting a Biden landslide, that's just disingenuous.

In my case, I think it was more that I foolishly assumed the Cuyahoga County Dems might have there act together for once and that I didn’t anticipate Turner reinventing herself as an establishmentarian (props to her for pulling that off btw

I’m not lying, I genuinely didn’t know you’d admitted you were wrong before.

That is where you f***ed up. If the CCDP were competent, Cleveland would have topped 56% turnout in 2016. If the CCDP were competent, David Greenspan would have lost in 2018. If the CCDP were competent, Matt Dolan would have lost in 2020.