Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[YL]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

144 seems way too low for the total number of votes in Ithaca proper.  The Tompkins County official results have (Della Pia first)

"City of Ithaca 1-1" 298 - 18
"City of Ithaca 1-2, 2-2" 285 - 21
"City of Ithaca 1-3" 283 - 20
"City of Ithaca 2-1, 2-3" 466 - 21
"City of Ithaca 2-4" 144 - 0
"City of Ithaca 3-1, 3-3, 4-1, 5-3" 157 - 7
"City of Ithaca 3-2" 397 - 17
"City of Ithaca 5-1, 5-2" 635 - 8
giving 2665 - 112 across the city as a whole.  So the 144 - 0 is just for one precinct, which looks to be the downtown area.

The surrounding Town of Ithaca was 2626 - 196.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

144 seems way too low for the total number of votes in Ithaca proper.  The Tompkins County official results have (Della Pia first)

"City of Ithaca 1-1" 298 - 18
"City of Ithaca 1-2, 2-2" 285 - 21
"City of Ithaca 1-3" 283 - 20
"City of Ithaca 2-1, 2-3" 466 - 21
"City of Ithaca 2-4" 144 - 0
"City of Ithaca 3-1, 3-3, 4-1, 5-3" 157 - 7
"City of Ithaca 3-2" 397 - 17
"City of Ithaca 5-1, 5-2" 635 - 8
giving 2665 - 112 across the city as a whole.  So the 144 - 0 is just for one precinct, which looks to be the downtown area.

The surrounding Town of Ithaca was 2626 - 196.

Still, those are worse-than-DC numbers.

[Mr. Matt]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

Sounds like a college precinct if you ask me...

Ithaca is the textbook definition of a college town.

Still you'd think there'd be bound to be that one student who came from a conservative religious family and votes reliably R or smtg.

Considering the vote was held in the summer, the minute number of College Repubs going there maybe didn't want to bother with requesting an absentee ballot for what they may have thought would a a win for the GOP in the whole district anyway. (FTR: don't know the class start for Ithaca or NY's absentee ballot laws)

Alt.(-right) response: Like those supermajority black precincts in Philly that went 100%-0% Obama-Romney, voter fraud.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Alaska Survey Research guy's analysis after the last update has the race on a knife edge.  Click to read the whole thread.

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1563518077664251907

[Brittain33]

The zombie OH-11 poll is gone thanks to Virginia showing me how to remove it.

[wesmoorenerd]

The zombie OH-11 poll is gone thanks to Virginia showing me how to remove it.

The end of an era

[GeorgiaModerate]

The zombie OH-11 poll is gone thanks to Virginia showing me how to remove it.

The end of an era

More like the end of an error.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another interesting thread from Alaska Survey Research:

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1563714786235273216

[patzer]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

[Ferguson97]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

[Roll Roons]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

Peltola only has a chance because Palin is so unpopular. Why would Republicans support her?

[JMT]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

I disagree. I think if Peltola wins the special, Republicans will view Palin as being unelectable and will unite around Begich for the regular election in hopes of defeating Peltola.

[Dani Rose]

I don't care if we immediately drop this seat to Begich in November. Make Palin Irrelevant Again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't care if we immediately drop this seat to Begich in November. Make Palin Irrelevant Again.

That's kind of where I'm at too. Some people deserve second chances, Palin is not one of them.

[Ferguson97]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

I disagree. I think if Peltola wins the special, Republicans will view Palin as being unelectable and will unite around Begich for the regular election in hopes of defeating Peltola.

This would require Palin's cooperation.

[Smash255]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

I disagree. I think if Peltola wins the special, Republicans will view Palin as being unelectable and will unite around Begich for the regular election in hopes of defeating Peltola.

This would require Palin's cooperation.

Maybe, maybe not.  I don't think there is any question that far fewer Palin voters would rank Peltola over Begich, compared to Begich voters ranking Peltola over Palin. The bigger question if Palin loses is will Palin be able to pull the same 30% of voters or will enough jump ship that Begich takes 2nd. 

[JMT]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

I disagree. I think if Peltola wins the special, Republicans will view Palin as being unelectable and will unite around Begich for the regular election in hopes of defeating Peltola.

This would require Palin's cooperation.

Maybe, maybe not.  I don't think there is any question that far fewer Palin voters would rank Peltola over Begich, compared to Begich voters ranking Peltola over Palin. The bigger question if Palin loses is will Palin be able to pull the same 30% of voters or will enough jump ship that Begich takes 2nd. 

I totally agree with this. I don’t really think it requires Palin’s cooperation. In fact, I think Palin will stay in the race for the regular election regardless of what happens in the special. If Palin wins the special election, I think she’ll be in a good position to win again in November. But if she loses, I think enough voters who had Palin as their first choice in the special would defect to Begich for the regular election, which would allow him to take the 2nd spot in the first round and defeat Peltola in the final round in November. While Palin has a loyal group of supporters who will vote for her no matter what, Begich only finished around 3-4 points behind Palin. I think he could pull at least that amount of support from Palin (if she loses the special) to get the second spot in November.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

You know, it's actualy incredibly ironic but the second congressional RCV election is demonstrating the fact that RCV is not Condorcet compliant given that Begich would probably win head to head with either Palin or Peltola

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_method

[wbrocks67]

I guess New York is just gonna update their tallies when they get all the votes by the 8/30 deadline? Because they've made virtually no updates all week

[Tintrlvr]

I think we've finally gotten to the point where I'd definitively rather be Peltola than Palin. While I'm unfamiliar with who those last outstanding ballots should favor in Alaska, it's not hard to imagine that Alaska's "questioned ballots" - like North Carolina's "provisional ballots" - will generally match the rest of the votes in the state (or maybe even favor the Democrat).

Right now, Peltola's up 16,347 votes and Begich has 52,320 that can be transferred under the instant runoff. Palin will need to get ~66% of those votes to overtake Peltola, and that's without any ballot exhaustion. The two polls conducted after Gross dropped out by Alaska Survey Research showed Palin getting between 65% and 67% of the redistributed votes and both of those polls showed near identical first round numbers to what has occurred so far. Only a 7% ballot exhaustion puts Palin on the wrong side of those polls.

Even under the hypothetical where the Write-in votes break down in the same way as Begich's, that exhaustion only needs to go up to about 12%, which is in-line with regular exhaustion numbers in places that have been using ranked choice voting already.

It's still well within a tossup range - bad assumptions about who's favored in outstanding ballots or a minor polling error within the acceptable MoE could throw these estimates off - but I would rather be Peltola right now based on what data we do have.

Does anyone recall what the ballot exhaustion rate was in ME-02? I thought it was much higher than the ranges being cited, as much as 20-25%. Certainly the NYC mayoral primary had exhaustion rates that high, although it may not be as comparable a race. Certainly possible that Alaska voters are particularly good at figuring out ranked choice, but experience I thought had been that exhaustion was quite common, at least in the first election using the system.

[soundchaser]

I think we've finally gotten to the point where I'd definitively rather be Peltola than Palin. While I'm unfamiliar with who those last outstanding ballots should favor in Alaska, it's not hard to imagine that Alaska's "questioned ballots" - like North Carolina's "provisional ballots" - will generally match the rest of the votes in the state (or maybe even favor the Democrat).

Right now, Peltola's up 16,347 votes and Begich has 52,320 that can be transferred under the instant runoff. Palin will need to get ~66% of those votes to overtake Peltola, and that's without any ballot exhaustion. The two polls conducted after Gross dropped out by Alaska Survey Research showed Palin getting between 65% and 67% of the redistributed votes and both of those polls showed near identical first round numbers to what has occurred so far. Only a 7% ballot exhaustion puts Palin on the wrong side of those polls.

Even under the hypothetical where the Write-in votes break down in the same way as Begich's, that exhaustion only needs to go up to about 12%, which is in-line with regular exhaustion numbers in places that have been using ranked choice voting already.

It's still well within a tossup range - bad assumptions about who's favored in outstanding ballots or a minor polling error within the acceptable MoE could throw these estimates off - but I would rather be Peltola right now based on what data we do have.

Does anyone recall what the ballot exhaustion rate was in ME-02? I thought it was much higher than the ranges being cited, as much as 20-25%. Certainly the NYC mayoral primary had exhaustion rates that high, although it may not be as comparable a race. Certainly possible that Alaska voters are particularly good at figuring out ranked choice, but experience I thought had been that exhaustion was quite common, at least in the first election using the system.

This article suggests it was much, much higher than the 5-10% the AK-AL election is being modeled on. 62% of Poliquin supporters only ranked one candidate.

[2016]

Sarah Palin has IMO been pretty unfairly treated by the Media in 2008 and this year as well. Hope she wins. She has even gotten the Endorsement from Nikki Haley.

I think without the Mar-a-Lago Raid Palin would have finished third.

Alaska Election Officials said that this year August Primary has eclipsed the Record Turnout they had in a Primary previously in 2014.

Trump factor was in play yet again. Whether you like or hate the guy he brings out the Voters on both Sides.

The Alaska Polls were done before the FBI Raid. Alaska is also notoriously a difficult State to poll.

[Tintrlvr]

I think we've finally gotten to the point where I'd definitively rather be Peltola than Palin. While I'm unfamiliar with who those last outstanding ballots should favor in Alaska, it's not hard to imagine that Alaska's "questioned ballots" - like North Carolina's "provisional ballots" - will generally match the rest of the votes in the state (or maybe even favor the Democrat).

Right now, Peltola's up 16,347 votes and Begich has 52,320 that can be transferred under the instant runoff. Palin will need to get ~66% of those votes to overtake Peltola, and that's without any ballot exhaustion. The two polls conducted after Gross dropped out by Alaska Survey Research showed Palin getting between 65% and 67% of the redistributed votes and both of those polls showed near identical first round numbers to what has occurred so far. Only a 7% ballot exhaustion puts Palin on the wrong side of those polls.

Even under the hypothetical where the Write-in votes break down in the same way as Begich's, that exhaustion only needs to go up to about 12%, which is in-line with regular exhaustion numbers in places that have been using ranked choice voting already.

It's still well within a tossup range - bad assumptions about who's favored in outstanding ballots or a minor polling error within the acceptable MoE could throw these estimates off - but I would rather be Peltola right now based on what data we do have.

Does anyone recall what the ballot exhaustion rate was in ME-02? I thought it was much higher than the ranges being cited, as much as 20-25%. Certainly the NYC mayoral primary had exhaustion rates that high, although it may not be as comparable a race. Certainly possible that Alaska voters are particularly good at figuring out ranked choice, but experience I thought had been that exhaustion was quite common, at least in the first election using the system.

This article suggests it was much, much higher than the 5-10% the AK-AL election is being modeled on. 62% of Poliquin supporters only ranked one candidate.

Right - I see it has 51% of ballots in 2018 having ranked only one candidate, with around 25% each from the independents (the only ones that were actually transferred in practice, so overall exhaustion was about 25%) and even higher for partisan voters. Now, here with two Republicans maybe exhaustion is a bit lower, but I have to imagine the ranges cited are far too low. (On the other hand, I'm also a little skeptical that there will be as many Begich-Peltola votes as some of the pollsters are indicating, so maybe Palin could still be competitive on a 15-20% exhaustion rate.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

144 seems way too low for the total number of votes in Ithaca proper.  The Tompkins County official results have (Della Pia first)

"City of Ithaca 1-1" 298 - 18
"City of Ithaca 1-2, 2-2" 285 - 21
"City of Ithaca 1-3" 283 - 20
"City of Ithaca 2-1, 2-3" 466 - 21
"City of Ithaca 2-4" 144 - 0
"City of Ithaca 3-1, 3-3, 4-1, 5-3" 157 - 7
"City of Ithaca 3-2" 397 - 17
"City of Ithaca 5-1, 5-2" 635 - 8
giving 2665 - 112 across the city as a whole.  So the 144 - 0 is just for one precinct, which looks to be the downtown area.

The surrounding Town of Ithaca was 2626 - 196.

Still, those are worse-than-DC numbers.

Well, the city of Ithaca is still more Republican than Detroit and Berkeley.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

144 seems way too low for the total number of votes in Ithaca proper.  The Tompkins County official results have (Della Pia first)

"City of Ithaca 1-1" 298 - 18
"City of Ithaca 1-2, 2-2" 285 - 21
"City of Ithaca 1-3" 283 - 20
"City of Ithaca 2-1, 2-3" 466 - 21
"City of Ithaca 2-4" 144 - 0
"City of Ithaca 3-1, 3-3, 4-1, 5-3" 157 - 7
"City of Ithaca 3-2" 397 - 17
"City of Ithaca 5-1, 5-2" 635 - 8
giving 2665 - 112 across the city as a whole.  So the 144 - 0 is just for one precinct, which looks to be the downtown area.

The surrounding Town of Ithaca was 2626 - 196.

Still, those are worse-than-DC numbers.

Still more Republican than Detroit and Berkeley.

Wasn't there a pretty large precinct in Berkeley where Trump came in like 5th?