Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[LimoLiberal]

A 20% gap in turnout between Columbia and Rensselaer does not pass the smell test.

Edit: Delaware is all done according to their website, which is pretty great for Ryan.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, more Columbia dropped.

15.7K votes. Ryan +15 and that's now *46%* of 2020 turnout!

I imagine Ulster has some left then, since it's still at 40% turnout.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No call tonight?

I think it's mostly due to confusion on what's actually out. The way DDHQ and NYT report these things is still pretty terrible where their %'s are always changing

If the NYT results left are accurate, I'd be pretty confident in declaring Ryan the winner. However, we've seen several examples where they've been way off.

[S019]

How the hell is Molinaro going to win the November version of this regardless of the final votes? He is losing his Dutchess base and getting Tompkins county....based on tonight that won't make it 3% more Dem, more like 5-6%.

Well Ryan is winning right now only because he's from Ulster County and is outperforming pretty significantly there. Democrats have also totally bombed candidate recruitment in that seat. Though after tonight, it's no better than a Tossup for Republicans.

Also this 100%, Ryan Ithaca awaits you in November!

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1562276447825395712?s=20&t=KUtiBCr...

Well Ryan's seat does not have Ithaca, what is does have is more blue downstate New York territory, Molinaro's seat is the one that will have Ithaca, and it is clearly going to be a tough fight for him. I'd say Ryan's race is Lean D and Molinaro's is a Tossup (I would say Tilt D after tonight, but Democratic candidates in the seat seem unimpressive)

[wbrocks67]

A 20% gap in turnout between Columbia and Rensselaer does not pass the smell test.

Renss likely has some still left, but not sure why it's hard to believe. A lot of the red areas are only seeing 30%-ish turnout.

[Gass3268]

How the hell is Molinaro going to win the November version of this regardless of the final votes? He is losing his Dutchess base and getting Tompkins county....based on tonight that won't make it 3% more Dem, more like 5-6%.

Well Ryan is winning right now only because he's from Ulster County and is outperforming pretty significantly there. Democrats have also totally bombed candidate recruitment in that seat. Though after tonight, it's no better than a Tossup for Republicans.

Also this 100%, Ryan Ithaca awaits you in November!

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1562276447825395712?s=20&t=KUtiBCr...

Well Ryan's seat does not have Ithaca, what is does have is more blue downstate New York territory, Molinaro's seat is the one that will have Ithaca, and it is clearly going to be a tough fight for him. I'd say Ryan's race is Lean D and Molinaro's is a Tossup (I would say Tilt D after tonight, but Democratic candidates in the seat seem unimpressive)

Whoops got that messed up.

[prag_prog]

The key thing here is the huge difference in turnout % so far in Biden counties..2-3 swings towards Molinaro won't matter if Biden counties have much higher turnout % than Trump Counties when you compare it vs 2020

[wbrocks67]

Broom for example literally only has 28-29% of 2020 turnout and its the reddest area.

[LimoLiberal]

A 20% gap in turnout between Columbia and Rensselaer does not pass the smell test.

Renss likely has some still left, but not sure why it's hard to believe. A lot of the red areas are only seeing 30%-ish turnout.

Delgado won the Rensselaer portion in 2020 and it borders Columbia. It's hard for me to believe it would have 24% of 2020 turnout while Columbia had 46%. I could be wrong though!

[GALeftist]

Forumlurker where u at dawg I was promised an R+9 red tsunami

[It’s so Joever]

Forumlurker where u at dawg I was promised an R+9 red tsunami

Right here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Win or lose, Malinaro was expected to win this race comfortably. If he’s struggling to win a Biden +1 district…

[Minnesota Mike]

NYT percentage in keeps ticking down. Down to 88%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh wait now we’re at 119.3K on DDHQ and Ryan is still up by 4.2K votes, 51.7 - 48.3%.

That was Rensselaer County reporting most of its vote. Otsego is the main one outstanding now. Then there should be only a few stragglers here and there, favoring Molinaro but there are just not that many votes once Otsego finishes. I think Ryan finishes the night up around 2k votes, which should get padded slightly by late absentees and affidavit ballots.

This is what I am beginning to think as well, either candidate by the tiniest of hairs at the end of the night and then then weekend unprocessed votes give it to Ryan. Which begs the question...why? Molinaro is outperforming Trump and most benchmarks where he needs to.

 The reason why Ryan is ahead is basically all down to Ulster and Columbia having higher turnout than the rest of the district to a substantial degree. Which matches with both previous specials and our overall expectations: Dem areas are punching above their weight in strongholds and suburbs even though they are slightly losing ground in marginal regions and GOP ones. Essentially, the environment is would still be tilting towards the GOP, but the situation in the past few months - mainly thanks to the Court - has activated partisans who might not usually have participated in midterm elections.

Seriously, a universal theme through MN-01, NE-01, NY-23, and NY-19 has been a further increase in partisanship from 2020 which kind of concerns me as historically special elections tend to see a slight decrease. What is notable though is that MN-01, NE-01, NY-23, and NY-19 are all remarkably similar districts from several standpoints. I really wish we could've gotten a more diverse slate of special elections post-dobbs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sean T has declared Dems the moral winner, lol

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1562276217222569986?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6vDv...

Still I never understood why Molinaro was an "A+" recruit. It just seems like he was given that label because he wasn't a complete dumpster wreck (like many GOP candidates have been) and he's fairly young, charismatic, and attractive. That doesn't inherently make him an A+ recruit.

This tells you about Ryan v Vance race Ryan can beat Vance just like Ryan beat Molinari

[Devils30]

NY-18 should be lean D now.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A 20% gap in turnout between Columbia and Rensselaer does not pass the smell test.

Renss likely has some still left, but not sure why it's hard to believe. A lot of the red areas are only seeing 30%-ish turnout.

Delgado won the Rensselaer portion in 2020 and it borders Columbia. It's hard for me to believe it would have 24% of 2020 turnout while Columbia had 46%. I could be wrong though!

I mean, this is happening on the night of a weird, rescheduled primary after the gubernatorial primary has already happened. Unusual turnout swings could be more likely in that sort of environment.

[wbrocks67]

apparently they're at least 7 precincts in Ulster left to count

[Holmes]

NYT percentage in keeps ticking down. Down to 88%.

Yeah no one knows how many votes are left.

[wbrocks67]

A 20% gap in turnout between Columbia and Rensselaer does not pass the smell test.

Renss likely has some still left, but not sure why it's hard to believe. A lot of the red areas are only seeing 30%-ish turnout.

Delgado won the Rensselaer portion in 2020 and it borders Columbia. It's hard for me to believe it would have 24% of 2020 turnout while Columbia had 46%. I could be wrong though!

Delgado only won it by 0.4%. He lost it by 8 in 2018, so this is not really a D area. Molinaro is winning by 10, so fits with more red areas seeing lower turnout.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Virgin ElectionsGuy
The Virgin Politician
THE CHAD DARK BRANDON

[walleye26]

I keep thinking we have to be close to all counted…NE-1 was 61K for GOP and 54K for Dem and MN-1 was 60K GOP and 55K Dem…We have passed those numbers here

[politicallefty]

Otsego vote drop. Molinaro+3

Ryan up by 3285 districtwide.

[Gass3268]

Otsego County looks to be done, 30% of 2020 vote.

Molinaro won by 51.52-48.26

[Sestak]

If that's final from Otsego, it's over. D hold.