Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 62,994 (51.73%)
MOLINARO: 58,772 (48.27%)

SEMPOLINSKI: 33,212 (51.55%)
DELLA PIA: 31,219 (48.45%)

[It’s so Joever]

Imagine if a kid’s sticker saved Ryan. Yes I know its for November but I still wanna meme.

[Gass3268]

Rensselaer is done and Columbia County is essentially done.

[wbrocks67]

Oh wait now we’re at 119.3K on DDHQ and Ryan is still up by 4.2K votes, 51.7 - 48.3%.

That was Rensselaer County reporting most of its vote. Otsego is the main one outstanding now. Then there should be only a few stragglers here and there, favoring Molinaro but there are just not that many votes once Otsego finishes. I think Ryan finishes the night up around 2k votes, which should get padded slightly by late absentees and affidavit ballots.

Yeah, Otsego I don't imagine can make up the 4K for Molinaro and given that most of the stragglers are likely Ryan at this point with late absentees, it seems he's likely to stay up here by a small margin..

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1562270598604226560

Ulster County I am in awe

Edit: Apparently these are for the November election, but I am in awe nonetheless

I want this sticker.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Most of the remaining votes are in Otsego and Rensselaer Counties. I think people are overfocused on the places that have already mostly reported. Both counties should flip to Molinaro in the final result, but not by huge margins, and I don't think he can make up 5,400 votes from them alone, though there are of course other votes scattered around elsewhere as well. We'll see.

At best he can make up about 3k votes from those 2 counties alone which is being extremely generous. The counties (in NY-19) collectively net Trump 5k votes in 2020 but obviously lower turnout won't allow for that. Molinaro will need to net a few extra votes from some scattered unreported precincts (late absentees will almost surely break Ryan).

[wbrocks67]

Rensselaer is done and Columbia County is essentially done.

If it's truly done then awful turnout in Renss with only 25%. That's on the lower end of turnout for R areas.

[Gass3268]

Sean T has declared Dems the moral winner, lol

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1562276217222569986?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6vDv...

[LimoLiberal]

Be careful - very very good chance there are more election day votes in Rensselaer. Only at 25% of 2020 turnout.

[Devils30]

How the hell is Molinaro going to win the November version of this regardless of the final votes? He is losing his Dutchess base and getting Tompkins county....based on tonight that won't make it 3% more Dem, more like 5-6%.

[wbrocks67]

We are now up to 122K votes and Ryan maintains his 4.2K (3.4%) lead

[Gass3268]

Also this 100%, Ryan Ithaca awaits you in November!

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1562276447825395712?s=20&t=KUtiBCr...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I haven't seen enough, but I'm starting to be cautiously optimistic that Ryan is going to eke this out.

[Gass3268]

Be careful - very very good chance there are more election day votes in Rensselaer. Only at 25% of 2020 turnout.

The county is saying 100% (click the link on this page)

[It’s so Joever]

Be careful - very very good chance there are more election day votes in Rensselaer. Only at 25% of 2020 turnout.

The county is saying 100% (click the link on this page)

Why did I think I was going to get rickrolled?

[Person Man]

No call tonight?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sean T has declared Dems the moral winner, lol

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1562276217222569986?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6vDv...

Still I never understood why Molinaro was an "A+" recruit. It just seems like he was given that label because he wasn't a complete dumpster wreck (like many GOP candidates have been) and he's fairly young, charismatic, and attractive. That doesn't inherently make him an A+ recruit.

[GALeftist]

I agree with Trende. Remember, anything less than Molinaro+3 was supposed to be bad for Republicans. Doesn't seem like there's any conceivable way for Molinaro to get that kind of lead.

[wbrocks67]

Renss has changed to 89% on NYT so they must think there's a few extra votes left

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 63,308 (51.68%)
MOLINARO: 59,196 (48.32%)

SEMPOLINSKI: 33,212 (51.55%)
DELLA PIA: 31,219 (48.45%)

[It’s so Joever]

Also don’t forget about Sullivan.

[wbrocks67]

No call tonight?

I think it's mostly due to confusion on what's actually out. The way DDHQ and NYT report these things is still pretty terrible where their %'s are always changing

[Person Man]

No call tonight?

I think it's mostly due to confusion on what's actually out. The way DDHQ and NYT report these things is still pretty terrible where their %'s are always changing

What else is out?

[GALeftist]

Still I never understood why Molinaro was an "A+" recruit. It just seems like he was given that label because he wasn't a complete dumpster wreck (like many GOP candidates have been) and he's fairly young, charismatic, and attractive. That doesn't inherently make him an A+ recruit.

I have been beating this drum for quite a while but Molinaro legit was super overrated. He is certainly better than Generic R – he's carrying Dutchess after all – but Ryan is probably about as good a candidate. People just lazily looked at his carrying the district by 11 in 2018 and concluded that he was an electoral God when obviously Cuomo was largely to blame.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh wait now we’re at 119.3K on DDHQ and Ryan is still up by 4.2K votes, 51.7 - 48.3%.

That was Rensselaer County reporting most of its vote. Otsego is the main one outstanding now. Then there should be only a few stragglers here and there, favoring Molinaro but there are just not that many votes once Otsego finishes. I think Ryan finishes the night up around 2k votes, which should get padded slightly by late absentees and affidavit ballots.

This is what I am beginning to think as well, either candidate by the tiniest of hairs at the end of the night and then then weekend unprocessed votes give it to Ryan. Which begs the question...why? Molinaro is outperforming Trump and most benchmarks where he needs to.

 The reason why Ryan is ahead is basically all down to Ulster and Columbia having higher turnout than the rest of the district to a substantial degree. Which matches with both previous specials and our overall expectations: Dem areas are punching above their weight in strongholds and suburbs even though they are slightly losing ground in marginal regions and GOP ones. Essentially, the environment is would still be tilting towards the GOP, but the situation in the past few months - mainly thanks to the Court - has activated partisans who might not usually have participated in midterm elections.