Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[GALeftist]

You know I'm just not going to argue with cons coping about how great this MN-01 result is for them anymore. All I'm gonna say is that I truly hope that the NRCC agrees with you that there are no warning signs here because if they do I'm going to have a very fun November.

No "con" is saying that this is a "great" result for Republicans, but there have been many contradictory signs this cycle. I’m still trying to make sense of it, but one suspicion which I’ve had for quite some time is that people are seriously underestimating how much the party coalitions are actually shifting and how reliable the GOP has become on high turnout (this is hard for many to accept because the media has been equating high turnout with Democratic strength for over two decades, including whenever the subject of "voter suppression" comes up). There are two consistent patterns here: (a) Democrats surpassing expectations in special election after special election; (b) Republicans winning the turnout race handily in virtually all swing state primaries (by margins which cannot be explained away by there being fewer competitive primaries on the R side or voters somehow being sufficiently tuned in to know which primary is "important" or which general election is "truly competitive").

The big problem with all the analyses which place great emphasis on special elections in general and highlight the 2020-PRES -> 2021/2022-SE swing in particular is that they implicitly assume that the electorate that tends to turn out for these special elections actually reflects the November electorate. If that’s the case, then yes, November is going to be very disappointing for the GOP. If that’s not the case, however, I suspect we may be looking at yet another traditional indicator (ground game, fundraising, polling, etc.) which has been shattered in the Trump era.

But Democrats aren't surpassing expectations in special after special. They are surpassing expectations specifically in elections after Dobbs. Have we all forgotten about TX-34 so soon? It's not like Dems were doing great in CA-22 or OH-15 or anything either.

Anyway the obsession with "Republicans winning the turnout race handily in virtually all swing state primaries" is odd to me, especially because it, too, is a "traditional indicator," and a historically less reliable one than specials or top two primaries at that, which might have "been shattered in the Trump era." If we're just tossing one of two inconsistent indicators arbitrarily I'd sooner toss primary turnout than specials or top-two primaries.

To be clear I'm not saying here that I'm anticipating a 2022 that is bluer than 2020, which is what these results indicate if you take them at face value. What I am saying is that they are straight up inconsistent with an R+4-6 nation, especially given that these have all had pretty historically high turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

Whew, Ettinger is down 2500 votes total now (and Finstad below 50) with Olmsted. Obviously Finstad will recover, but:

MN-1 Current Results:
18/21 Counties Reporting
666/726 Precincts Reporting

54820 - 49.86% - Finstad (R)
52335 - 47.60% - Ettinger (D)
2284 - 2.08% - Others (LMN & GLC)
512 - 0.46% - Write-ins

[Minnesota Mike]

Finstad
50.1%   
54,820
2,485 ahead
Ettinger
47.8%   
52,335

%95 of the votes are in

Just Brown and Houston counties out and both will go to Finstad. Final margin will be 4,000 - 5,000 votes.

[philly09]

Brad Finstad GOP   54,820   50.1%
Jeff Ettinger DEM   52,335   47.8

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WOW!

[GALeftist]

I recall having been reliably informed by the good blue avatars of this wonderful forum that the NE-01 underperformance was solely due to Fortenberry's scandal carrying over to the next special election somehow. I wonder what the excuse will be this time. Perhaps this time, too, voters confused Finstad with the old representative and thought he was dead.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I recall having been reliably informed by the good blue avatars of this wonderful forum that the NE-01 underperformance was solely due to Fortenberry's scandal carrying over to the next special election somehow. I wonder what the excuse will be this time. Perhaps this time, too, voters confused Finstad with the old representative and thought he was dead.

It’ll be that this district voted for Obama and this is just downballot lag even though by detailed county and precinct results if anything this shows an acceleration of polarization within the district.

[Gass3268]

Good stuff here

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1557219433814319105?s=20&t=tluAsLYFRzFA8xc...

I'm going to guess a strong Dem overperformance in Houston based on this map.

[philly09]

Houston is in, Finstad wins by 10 54-44.

Brad Finstad GOP   56,569   50.2%
Jeff Ettinger DEM   53,762   47.7

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What was the 2020 house margins ?

[philly09]

A quick reminder that Trump won Brown County by just under 33 points.

[Adam Griffin]

Houston in - weaker than would be expected given what Martin did. Sestak and I are thinking a 3700-vote margin for Finstad after Brown reports.

[Gass3268]

Houston is in, Finstad wins by 10 54-44.

Brad Finstad GOP   56,569   50.2%
Jeff Ettinger DEM   53,762   47.7

I was off lol

[Gracile]

What was the 2020 house margins ?

Hagedorn won it by 3%, which was a considerable underperformance (given the national House picture that year) from Trump who won the district by 10% at the presidential level.

[GALeftist]

Also given how close this ended up being I probably would've waited longer than Dave to call it lol.

[philly09]

Houston is in, Finstad wins by 10 54-44.

Brad Finstad GOP   56,569   50.2%
Jeff Ettinger DEM   53,762   47.7

I was off lol

Trump won it by 13.

[Gass3268]

Houston is in, Finstad wins by 10 54-44.

Brad Finstad GOP   56,569   50.2%
Jeff Ettinger DEM   53,762   47.7

I was off lol

Trump won it by 13.

Its's good, but I wouldn't consider it strong.

[Minnesota Mike]

Moral victories suck. This is 3 straight Dem losses in my home district. On to November when MN-01 gets 1% more blue and the college kids are back in Mankato and Winona.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder how the NY-19 special will go. If Rs win it it’d be a pretty stark change in dynamics but special elections can be strange. I rate it as a slight tilt D and tonight’s result only reinforce that.

[Adam Griffin]

SOS showing all counties/precincts reporting: not sure if Brown's margin was much bigger than expected but Finstad's margin widened by quite a bit.

MN-1 Current Results:
21/21 Counties Reporting
726/726 Precincts Reporting

60261 - 50.83% - Finstad (R)
55341 - 46.68% - Ettinger (D)
2416 - 2.04% - Others (LMN & GLC)
547 - 0.45% - Write-ins

[philly09]

Moral victories suck. This is 3 straight Dem losses in my home district. On to November when MN-01 gets 1% more blue and the college kids are back in Mankato and Winona.

Hopefully, the DCCC will pour some money into this race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Something to add to the Calendar: A Special Election for Indiana's 2nd district will be held concurrently with the November regular election: https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/09/indiana-gov-holcomb-special-election-jackie-warloski-seat-congresswoman-death/65397613007/ . There will be no primaries, instead state parties will select their nominees via conventions. Whoever wins the Special will serve only for the duration of the 2022 lame duck session, with the winner of the regular election taking office in January.

[Sestak]

Houston in - weaker than would be expected given what Martin did. Sestak and I are thinking a 3700-vote margin for Finstad after Brown reports.

A bit bigger in the end; Brown slightly overperformed in turnout and Finstad overperformed Trump as well - unless some of the last group of votes added were from elsewhere. Looks like 4 points flat margin in the end.

[Lief 🗽]

SOS showing all counties/precincts reporting: not sure if Brown's margin was much bigger than expected but Finstad's margin widened by quite a bit.

MN-1 Current Results:
21/21 Counties Reporting
726/726 Precincts Reporting

60261 - 50.83% - Finstad (R)
55341 - 46.68% - Ettinger (D)
2416 - 2.04% - Others (LMN & GLC)
547 - 0.45% - Write-ins

Apparently Brown is his home county, so it makes sense that he'd do better than expected.

[Adam Griffin]

Finstad +4.15 with write-ins included; +4.17 w/o write-ins. It was Hagedorn +3.07 & Trump +10.1 in 2020.