Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW Ettinger is from Mower County and he's an executive of the top employer there. Still... quite impressive.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557227453512310785

[philly09]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 31,802 (53.8%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 26,026 (44.0%)

Olmsted hasn't even started yet.

Or Blue Earth for that matter.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm assuming Ettinger winning Jackson County by a 20 point margin with all the vote in on NYT is an error.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/bob_vols/status/1557229002355458049

[philly09]

I'm assuming Ettinger winning Jackson County by a 20 point margin with all the vote in on NYT is an error.

Probably not, as it's what the WaPo is showing as well.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Jackson result looks weird. A 61% Hagedorn County going 61% Ettinger?!?

[Lief 🗽]

I'm assuming Ettinger winning Jackson County by a 20 point margin with all the vote in on NYT is an error.

They probably flipped the numbers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm assuming Ettinger winning Jackson County by a 20 point margin with all the vote in on NYT is an error.

Probably not, as it's what the WaPo is showing as well.

It could be a reporting error. The result seems very unlikely, especially since Finstad is barely underperforming Trump in the neighboring counties.

[Minnesota Mike]

In Mower county about 4% of voters voted in the Republican primary and then voted for Ettinger in the special.

[It’s so Joever]

This is def a mistake but even if numbers flipped still an overperformance for Ettinger.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The Jackson result looks weird. A 61% Hagedorn County going 61% Ettinger?!?

Is it fully reported? Ettinger was leading in one of the 60-40 counties earlier.

[philly09]

The Jackson result looks weird. A 61% Hagedorn County going 61% Ettinger?!?

Is it fully reported? Ettinger was leading in one of the 60-40 counties earlier.

99%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Jackson result looks weird. A 61% Hagedorn County going 61% Ettinger?!?

Is it fully reported? Ettinger was leading in one of the 60-40 counties earlier.

it's apparently over 95% reported and the amount of total votes in makes sense. my guess is they flipped the numbers as someone else said earlier.

[Minnesota Mike]

All but 2 precincts of the Olmsted County primary vote is in and Dems lead 58-42, a little over 5,000 votes.

[Lief 🗽]

All but 2 precincts of the Olmsted County primary vote is in and Dems lead 58-42, a little over 5,000 votes.

I was thinking it could be close to 60% with how the rest of the district was swinging. Wow!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All but 2 precincts of the Olmsted County primary vote is in and Dems lead 58-42, a little over 5,000 votes.

I was thinking it could be close to 60% with how the rest of the district was swinging. Wow!

5,000 is the current lead difference.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even if it ends up not being indicative of the national result come Nov 2022, this is still a bad sign for the state GOP. In order to win statewide in MN at this point they really need to put up a solid performance in MN-01 but it seems like even as Dems have collapsed in the rural parts they've found newfound strength in some of these smaller counties, mainly Rochester, Rochester, and Winoa.

The way I like to think about statewide races in MN is that in order for the GOP to win, MN-01, MN-06, MN-07, and MN-08 all have to collectively outvote the 4 MSP seats. If Dems are still able to remain competitive in MN-01, that makes the GOP's task quite difficult to outvote the other 4, especially since MN-04 nad MN-05 are VERY Democratic districts and basically all of MN-06, 7, and 8 has to go to cancelling out those 2 in a normal election or even GOP friendly election. And while the GOP may be able to narrowly win in MN-02, it won't net them many votes, and MN-03 is basically gone for them.

(this basic logic applies on both the new and old lines)

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557230507225743360

[Minnesota Mike]

All of Blue Earth primary vote is in, D 55 - R 45. 1,000 votes.

[Devils30]

Hot take: With GOP's underperformance even compared to 2020 in suburbs, is NC a more likely Senate flip than WI?

[ProgressiveModerate]

All of Blue Earth primary vote is in, D 55 - R 45. 1,000 votes.

I'm certain there are more than 1000 votes to come out of Blue Earth

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ettinger wins Blue Earth County 55-43%. Big over performance from Biden (51-46%).

[Minnesota Mike]

All of Blue Earth primary vote is in, D 55 - R 45. 1,000 votes.

I'm certain there are more than 1000 votes to come out of Blue Earth

D net votes

[NewYorkExpress]

Hot take: With GOP's underperformance even compared to 2020 in suburbs, is NC a more likely Senate flip than WI?

No, but I think there's now a very realistic chance that all three of Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin flip.