Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)
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Author Topic: Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)  (Read 142637 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1400 on: August 09, 2022, 08:40:37 PM »
Quote from: Only you can prevent Bidenpox! on August 09, 2022, 08:37:45 PM
Quote from: The sun fell down again last night on my anger on August 09, 2022, 08:34:56 PM
Quote from: Only you can prevent Bidenpox! on August 09, 2022, 08:33:58 PM
Just looking at turnout differences in the primaries for MN-01 RIP Ettinger lmao
He's obviously probably not going to win, but there's zero in from Olmsted, Blue Earth or Winona counties so this isn't a representative sample at all to put it mildly.
Its literally Nicollet LMAO
Everything reporting from there is rural, nothing in from North Mankato or St. Peter.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1401 on: August 09, 2022, 09:04:30 PM »
All of Rock County now reporting supposedly and it’s a 3 point swing LEFT compared to 2020 President result.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #1402 on: August 09, 2022, 09:06:26 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 09, 2022, 09:04:30 PM
All of Rock County now reporting supposedly and it’s a 3 point swing LEFT compared to 2020 President result.


Just ignore the other county lol
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Shilly
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« Reply #1403 on: August 09, 2022, 09:09:06 PM »
Finstad is up 19 in Rice County. Trump won the MN-01 part of the county by 23.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1404 on: August 09, 2022, 09:09:47 PM »
Quote from: Only you can prevent Bidenpox! on August 09, 2022, 09:06:26 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 09, 2022, 09:04:30 PM
All of Rock County now reporting supposedly and it’s a 3 point swing LEFT compared to 2020 President result.


Just ignore the other county lol

The other county shows a similar Democratic swing.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1405 on: August 09, 2022, 09:11:11 PM »
Quote from: Only you can prevent Bidenpox! on August 09, 2022, 08:37:45 PM
Quote from: The sun fell down again last night on my anger on August 09, 2022, 08:34:56 PM
Quote from: Only you can prevent Bidenpox! on August 09, 2022, 08:33:58 PM
Just looking at turnout differences in the primaries for MN-01 RIP Ettinger lmao
He's obviously probably not going to win, but there's zero in from Olmsted, Blue Earth or Winona counties so this isn't a representative sample at all to put it mildly.
Its literally Nicollet LMAO
Look at Nicollet now LMAO.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1406 on: August 09, 2022, 09:16:13 PM »
BASED DARK BRANDON!!!!!!1
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1407 on: August 09, 2022, 09:18:06 PM »
The Rice county portion was a 23 point Trump win.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1408 on: August 09, 2022, 09:18:29 PM »
It would be nice to get some more data so I can go to sleep
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1409 on: August 09, 2022, 09:21:49 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 09, 2022, 09:18:29 PM
It would be nice to get some more data so I can go to sleep
at just 10:21PM your time?
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #1410 on: August 09, 2022, 09:22:56 PM »
It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1411 on: August 09, 2022, 09:23:20 PM »
It looks like around a 7% overperformance in Rice vs 4% in Rock.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1412 on: August 09, 2022, 09:23:44 PM »

I get up at 6:30 and need some downtime without my iPad before I can fall asleep.

Steele County reported partially with results exactly matching 2020 Pres.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1413 on: August 09, 2022, 09:24:18 PM »
No overperformance in Steele!
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Sestak
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« Reply #1414 on: August 09, 2022, 09:25:44 PM »
Very early obviously but all three counties so far have fallen in between Trump and Hagedorn's numbers.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1415 on: August 09, 2022, 09:26:00 PM »
It's about 50% in, and only one precinct is in from Owatonna (which while pretty Republican is much less so than the rest of the county.)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1416 on: August 09, 2022, 09:26:22 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on August 09, 2022, 09:22:56 PM
It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1417 on: August 09, 2022, 09:26:28 PM »
Finstad is improving over Hagedorn in the rurals we're getting, but in the only urban area so far - dodge city - Ettinger is doing far better than Feehan. This looks tight.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1418 on: August 09, 2022, 09:27:22 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 09, 2022, 09:26:22 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on August 09, 2022, 09:22:56 PM
It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.
None of the ancestrally D areas are in really. That's mostly Freeborn and Mower counties.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #1419 on: August 09, 2022, 09:28:40 PM »
Where are you finding out which precincts have reported?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1420 on: August 09, 2022, 09:29:41 PM »
Rochester numbers will be important
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1421 on: August 09, 2022, 09:34:13 PM »
Quote from: Only you can prevent Bidenpox! on August 09, 2022, 09:28:40 PM
Where are you finding out which precincts have reported?
The MN SoS site. It only has the special results in that Excel file but shows the primary results statewide, so you can see what areas in which counties have reported.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1422 on: August 09, 2022, 09:44:17 PM »
Blue Earth's special election results aren't in yet but a lot of the primary ones are and...yikes. Check out the Mankato turnout differentials. This is BRUTAL for the GOP.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1423 on: August 09, 2022, 09:45:13 PM »
So it is looking increasingly likely that Ettinger outperforms Biden, right? Pretty unambiguously bullish for Democrats if he does imo. Even if you completely throw the presidential topline out the window anything less than Finstad+10 suggests a roof of R+3 for the HPV in November.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1424 on: August 09, 2022, 09:47:10 PM »
Quote from: GALeftist on August 09, 2022, 09:45:13 PM
So it is looking increasingly likely that Ettinger outperforms Biden, right? Pretty unambiguously bullish for Democrats if he does imo. Even if you completely throw the presidential topline out the window anything less than Finstad+10 suggests a roof of R+3 for the HPV in November.

The Rs are already preparing the copium (probably that Dan Feehan almost won in 2020, but that was as a more well-known candidate against a worse R).
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