Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1541963606996172801

[walleye26]

This is a weird side note, but it's weird to think about how theoretically NE Rs wanting to unpack NE-02 could lead to a 2D-1R delegation at some point this decade, even if NE stays pretty firmly R overall. NE-03 is a very effective pack.

Anyways it's good to see Dems appear to be matching Biden in this special election. Again though these can have weird dynamics.

Yeah, Lincoln, while no Madison, is growing decently and is clearly moving left. A shift left in the Sarpy County portion could flip this district. Sarpy + Lancaster is 71% of this districts population.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm seeing a lot of different %s for the vote in in NE-01; CNN says 72% (which seems unlikely) vs NYT's more realistic 42%; buisness insider says 26% lol.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1541965187200188416

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OK-SEN Special R will be a RUNOFF between Mullin and Shannon!

[Brittain33]

Flood takes a narrow lead on NYT

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Flood takes the lead with 80% in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1541965187200188416

Uh, what? Brooks is at 62.3, Biden got 52.3.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1541965187200188416

Uh, what? Brooks is at 62.3, Biden got 52.3.

Did he mean Lancaster early vote in 2020?

[Brittain33]

Big drop from Lancaster puts Brooks slightly ahead again. I doubt it holds.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updated 3m ago
61% REPORTED
Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.   
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat   34,450   +50.4%50.4%   
Mike Flood
Republican   33,942   +49.6%49.6   
Total reported
68,392   

[Devils30]

This seat is staying red but the margin is what I am looking at.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Flood is out to a bit of a lead now, but NYT is still expecting 19,000 more votes from Lancaster. 5,000 votes still out from Sarpy which could go either way.

[Brittain33]

Flood is out to a bit of a lead now, but NYT is still expecting 19,000 more votes from Lancaster. 5,000 votes still out from Sarpy which could go either way.

How did those estimates do in the Texas race? I thought they turned out to be a mirage.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SunBeltPolitics/status/1541974694735187968

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh wow, ok. This is interesting.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Based upon the rural counties nearly entirely in so far, Brooks appears to be doing best and Lancaster where she overperformed Biden in Seward County quite a bit. Flood appears to be overperforming in rural counties in the Northern and Western parts of the district

[walleye26]

Based upon the rural counties nearly entirely in so far, Brooks appears to be doing best and Lancaster where she overperformed Biden in Seward County quite a bit. Flood appears to be overperforming in rural counties in the Northern and Western parts of the district

Don’t you mean Sarpy? She’s only down there by 4, Trump won it by 12.

[Roll Roons]

Based upon the rural counties nearly entirely in so far, Brooks appears to be doing best and Lancaster where she overperformed Biden in Seward County quite a bit. Flood appears to be overperforming in rural counties in the Northern and Western parts of the district

Don’t you mean Sarpy? She’s only down there by 4, Trump won it by 12.

Sarpy is split between NE-01 and NE-02. I'm not sure how Trump did in NE-01's share of it.

[lfromnj]

Based upon the rural counties nearly entirely in so far, Brooks appears to be doing best and Lancaster where she overperformed Biden in Seward County quite a bit. Flood appears to be overperforming in rural counties in the Northern and Western parts of the district

Don’t you mean Sarpy? She’s only down there by 4, Trump won it by 12.

FYI The portion of Sarpy in the district was Trump +7.5

[Minnesota Mike]

What's left is election day vote which should run more Republican BUT several of the smaller counties have 100% precincts completed while Lancaster and Sarpy have none. I don't want to get my hopes up but maybe there is a chance...

[walleye26]

What's left is election day vote which should run more Republican BUT several of the smaller counties have 100% precincts completed while Lancaster and Sarpy have none. I don't want to get my hopes up but maybe there is a chance...

It looks like a few votes remain in Flood’s home base. If she really really runs up the score in Lancaster she might have a miracle shot, but this is pretty much over.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny that this special has turned out to be the race of the night.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Remaining Votes:

19,000 in Lancaster (Dem)
1,000 in Sarpy (unclear)
600 in Dodge (R)
1,800 in Cass (R)
5,400 in Madison (R)
3,300 in Platte (R)

So 19,000 in D areas to 11,100 in R areas. Obviously won't be 100% D/R in either but overall what's left favors Brooks, however Sarpy goes.

Flood lead is 3,901....

[Devils30]

What's left is election day vote which should run more Republican BUT several of the smaller counties have 100% precincts completed while Lancaster and Sarpy have none. I don't want to get my hopes up but maybe there is a chance...

No chance for the Dems but this was not an especially inspiring performance if you are an R, unless something unexpected comes from Lancaster.