Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

thrown away your vote on a fringe nutjob.

Why would she have thrown away her vote unless she abstained? She probably didn't vote for Gary Johnson, who isn't a fringe candidate as he was the Governor of New Mexico, and she probably voted for Jill Stein, who got over a million votes, and that's a lot of votes.

And is also a fringe nutjob who panders to anti-vaxxers and people who think wifi causes brain cancer, who Nina Turner stumped and obviously voted for but isn't willing to own.

[wbrocks67]

thrown away your vote on a fringe nutjob.

Why would she have thrown away her vote unless she abstained? She probably didn't vote for Gary Johnson, who isn't a fringe candidate as he was the Governor of New Mexico, and she probably voted for Jill Stein, who got over a million votes, and that's a lot of votes.

And I'm not sure why Turner should be judged for not having voted for Clinton and gone third-party. It's as if people forget that Clinton was disliked by many left-leaning and Democratic voters, and that virtually all those people came back to the Party for Biden last year.

Why should you get a seat in Congress for the Democratic Primary when you couldn't even for the partys 2016 nominee, which then led to Donald Trump winning? Seems pretty easy to me

[Gracile]

Some (very early) turnout figures-

https://twitter.com/KosichJohn/status/1422537282037366800

[wbrocks67]

This is going to be what it comes down to. Turner may have the edge in theory but her voter base is more susceptible to not consistently showing up

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1422580805428256774

[GeneralMacArthur]

This is going to be what it comes down to. Turner may have the edge in theory but her voter base is more susceptible to not consistently showing up

I wouldn't read too much into this, I've been following this race closely and even I couldn't tell you who the mayor of North Randall is and whether or not he/she endorsed Brown.

I didn't even know some of these places like Highland Hills and Shaker Heights had separate mayors, I thought they were just neighborhoods and covered by the Cleveland government -- whose mayor endorsed Turner.  I know East Cleveland has a separate mayor.

Anyway, Brown is moving up on PredictIt so clearly markets are interpreting the early returns as favorable to Brown.  We'll see if it is enough to overcome Nina's advantage in money, organization, and media coverage.

[GALeftist]

PredictIt's OH-11 margin of victory has Brown's margin of victory being over 6% at 33 cents, and all margins of victory with Brown winning cumulatively at 67 cents. Now, I do favor Nina Turner, so bear that in mind as I write this, but even if Brown does win she will not win by 6 points or more. It's just not going to happen.

[wbrocks67]

This is going to be what it comes down to. Turner may have the edge in theory but her voter base is more susceptible to not consistently showing up

I wouldn't read too much into this, I've been following this race closely and even I couldn't tell you who the mayor of North Randall is and whether or not he/she endorsed Brown.

I didn't even know some of these places like Highland Hills and Shaker Heights had separate mayors, I thought they were just neighborhoods and covered by the Cleveland government -- whose mayor endorsed Turner.  I know East Cleveland has a separate mayor.

Anyway, Brown is moving up on PredictIt so clearly markets are interpreting the early returns as favorable to Brown.  We'll see if it is enough to overcome Nina's advantage in money, organization, and media coverage.

Another correlation here, where wards where Brown was endorsed have higher turnout too. But you're right, it depends if this info had gotten out to voters or its just purely coincidence

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1422582158003249158

[wbrocks67]

From NPR report today:

Brown's campaign officials told NPR that their internal polling as of a week ago put her 3 percentage points ahead of Turner and that they expect it to be a close race. Turner's campaign declined to provide polling.

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/03/1023943187/voters-are-set-to-decide-a-hard-fought-democratic-primary-in-ohio

[_.]

From James Jerome Bell's Facebook:

Having been born June 1966 in the midst of the Hough riots when myself and my cousin FANNIE Lewis grandson and my godmother and Carl Stokes work quelling the Hough area from bombardment of three days of looting and gunfire excetera excetera moving forward to a life of excellence and achievement, along with the pitfalls of just being a black man I have survived I have thrived and I have struggle so I know the difference between being hungry and being full like the Apostle Paul said in all things self-sufficiency I will be your next Congressman to lead them to a better life first reparations II Universal basic income environmental sustainability With God all things are possible.

[Ferguson97]

Unfortunately, Turner will probably win.

[GALeftist]

You'd think people on this board would have learned about wild extrapolations from early unofficial turnout reports by now. We're not learning anything new until 7:30, y'all, go read a book or watch a movie or something until then

[Gass3268]

Really don’t like either candidate, but I’m probably leaning towards Brown. Turner’s unwillingness to get behind Biden when the alternative is four more years of Trump is unforgivable.

[Real Texan Politics]

PI has Brown at 59 cents, Turner at 42.

Something must've happened and it ain't good for Turner.

[GALeftist]

PI has Brown at 59 cents, Turner at 42.

Something must've happened and it ain't good for Turner.

Look at the comments and you'll see what happened. Hint: it has nothing to do with anything in the real world and everything to do with weird Twitter cliques. The market seems to also think Brown is going to win by at least upwards of 3 points and very possibly more than 6 lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PI has Brown at 59 cents, Turner at 42.

Something must've happened and it ain't good for Turner.

PI has been moving back and forth as fake polls drop throughout the day.

[Real Texan Politics]

Also a stupid question but doesn't Turner support defunding or abolishing the police? If that's the case then that may not be doing her any favors.

[wbrocks67]

PI has Brown at 59 cents, Turner at 42.

Something must've happened and it ain't good for Turner.

Look at the comments and you'll see what happened. Hint: it has nothing to do with anything in the real world and everything to do with weird Twitter cliques. The market seems to also think Brown is going to win by at least upwards of 3 points and very possibly more than 6 lol

I wouldn't say it's based on nothing. I think a lot is based on the NPR report about Brown's internal having her up 3.

[_.]

PredictIt? Gurrrrrrrrrl!

[GALeftist]

PI has Brown at 59 cents, Turner at 42.

Something must've happened and it ain't good for Turner.

Look at the comments and you'll see what happened. Hint: it has nothing to do with anything in the real world and everything to do with weird Twitter cliques. The market seems to also think Brown is going to win by at least upwards of 3 points and very possibly more than 6 lol

I wouldn't say it's based on nothing. I think a lot is based on the NPR report about Brown's internal having her up 3.

Brown's spike happened before that, I think. That being said, if that polling is legit (big if), it's not nothing, though it certainly wouldn't justify the current 60/40 odds in favor of Brown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You'd think people on this board would have learned about wild extrapolations from early unofficial turnout reports by now. We're not learning anything new until 7:30, y'all, go read a book or watch a movie or something until then

If this ever happens, it will be the end of the world as we know it.

[Adam Griffin]

Unfortunately, turnout reports from earlier are probably not as useful as some think. This primary hasn't been a battle of race or ideology so much as it has been a generational battle.

Now, just ask yourself: what are older people on a Tuesday doing, and what are younger people on a Tuesday doing? Who has a tendency to vote before Election Day, and who has a tendency to vote on Election Day?

Just some food for thought.

[Adam Griffin]

You'd think people on this board would have learned about wild extrapolations from early unofficial turnout reports by now. We're not learning anything new until 7:30, y'all, go read a book or watch a movie or something until then

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Really don’t like either candidate, but I’m probably leaning towards Brown. Turner’s unwillingness to get behind Biden when the alternative is four more years of Trump is unforgivable.

This is where I’m at basically. I would like another progressive in Congress, but Turner is just kinda toxic.

[Stuart98]

Hoping Turner wins, but really an atrociously bad pair of frontrunners all around. Whichever of the two loses, they'll have no one to blame for it but themselves.

[wbrocks67]

Brown is still pretty progressive.