Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

source

Explains a lot, I think.

Other than why Ron Hood still only managed an effective tie for second, technically third place.

The answer is, too many people actually know Ron Hood.

I will also comment that this race is a prime example of how lawn signs are a piss poor indicator of polling strength. I had driven through Perry County a couple times in the last few weeks and saw Bunches of cooperrider signs. I swear his ratio of votes to lawn signs was only about 15 to 1. Likewise I traveled through Jeff larae District Affair bit and saw massive numbers of signs for him. Even in those areas though, Carey signs were relatively rare even compared to those four say Bob Peterson and some of the others who've finished well back in the pack.

This was a weird race in that basically every non-Carey serious candidate had a clear base of support. You can see this in the results below Carey, with the legislators margins overwhelmingly coming from their districts and Ruth Edmonds obviously doing better in Franklin. Kunze for example won negligible votes outside of Franklin. Carey's support was relatively evenly distributed. This means you will see lots of lawn signs for the base candidates in their base areas, outnumbering Carey in a particular area but maybe not overall.

[Pyro]

Disappointing to say the least. Another huge loss for the polling industry.

It's interesting to contrast this race and its result with NY-16 last year. Bowman, like Turner, upheld a progressive program, had the animosity of Clinton, Clyburn and the CBC, and was outspent by outside groups incl. DMFI donating millions to the opposing candidate. Bowman was also criticized by Engel and his surrogates for controversial statements about Israel, and rallied endorsements from Sanders and AOC. Yet Bowman crushed Engel by 15 points. Why then did Turner have such an uphill battle? Did it simply come down to perceived loyalty to Biden and the Democrats, and the DMFI/Third Way ads repeating attack ads? Or do we just need to find more out-of-touch incumbents?

Regardless, it's undoubtedly a painful L for progressives. Hopefully we see some primary wins in 2022.

Impression I got was that Engel was a lot more unpopular and it’s much easier to run as a progressive against an incumbent with a sh**t record compared to against some random state legislator.

Fair enough, though Engel never struck me as an unpopular incumbent until that election.

[Badger]

SNIP

source

Explains a lot, I think.

Other than why Ron Hood still only managed an effective tie for second, technically third place.

The answer is, too many people actually know Ron Hood.

I will also comment that this race is a prime example of how lawn signs are a piss poor indicator of polling strength. I had driven through Perry County a couple times in the last few weeks and saw Bunches of cooperrider signs. I swear his ratio of votes to lawn signs was only about 15 to 1. Likewise I traveled through Jeff larae District Affair bit and saw massive numbers of signs for him. Even in those areas though, Carey signs were relatively rare even compared to those four say Bob Peterson and some of the others who've finished well back in the pack.

This was a weird race in that basically every non-Carey serious candidate had a clear base of support. You can see this in the results below Carey, with the legislators margins overwhelmingly coming from their districts and Ruth Edmonds obviously doing better in Franklin. Kunze for example won negligible votes outside of Franklin. Carey's support was relatively evenly distributed. This means you will see lots of lawn signs for the base candidates in their base areas, outnumbering Carey in a particular area but maybe not overall.

Good analysis. The weird thing is though that Mike Carey did extraordinary well and winning every pocket of the district other than the southern half of Fayette County going for Peterson. He won Fairfield County for example despite Lancaster in the northern half being Jeff larae district, and the southern half being part of Ron hoods old District. He won Perry County despite cooperrider having been a county commissioner there. Carey signs in the former were occasional but not common at all, even less than Peterson signs, and were completely absent in Perry County.

I wouldn't have been all surprised if Mike Carey had one by running competitively / second place in most other candidates home basis, while perhaps winning the vote in Franklin County where he's from. But again he almost universally beat every other candidate on their home turf. Though perhaps in Jeff lauray's District hiiraan second but far enough above Hood and the others, and in hoods part of the county hiiraan second there but far enough against Loray and the others, to win the county overall.

And yes, I know my voice to text app sucks

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Disappointing to say the least. Another huge loss for the polling industry.

It's interesting to contrast this race and its result with NY-16 last year. Bowman, like Turner, upheld a progressive program, had the animosity of Clinton, Clyburn and the CBC, and was outspent by outside groups incl. DMFI donating millions to the opposing candidate. Bowman was also criticized by Engel and his surrogates for controversial statements about Israel, and rallied endorsements from Sanders and AOC. Yet Bowman crushed Engel by 15 points. Why then did Turner have such an uphill battle? Did it simply come down to perceived loyalty to Biden and the Democrats, and the DMFI/Third Way ads repeating attack ads? Or do we just need to find more out-of-touch incumbents?

Regardless, it's undoubtedly a painful L for progressives. Hopefully we see some primary wins in 2022.

Impression I got was that Engel was a lot more unpopular and it’s much easier to run as a progressive against an incumbent with a sh**t record compared to against some random state legislator.

Fair enough, though Engel never struck me as an unpopular incumbent until that election.

Engel’s primary happened when BLM was taking off and he made the “If I didn’t have a primary, I wouldn’t care,” gaffe.

It is notable that a lot of primary upsets/near upsets happened in NY in 2020.

[Torie]

SNIP

source

Explains a lot, I think.

Other than why Ron Hood still only managed an effective tie for second, technically third place.

The answer is, too many people actually know Ron Hood.

I will also comment that this race is a prime example of how lawn signs are a piss poor indicator of polling strength. I had driven through Perry County a couple times in the last few weeks and saw Bunches of cooperrider signs. I swear his ratio of votes to lawn signs was only about 15 to 1. Likewise I traveled through Jeff larae District Affair bit and saw massive numbers of signs for him. Even in those areas though, Carey signs were relatively rare even compared to those four say Bob Peterson and some of the others who've finished well back in the pack.

This was a weird race in that basically every non-Carey serious candidate had a clear base of support. You can see this in the results below Carey, with the legislators margins overwhelmingly coming from their districts and Ruth Edmonds obviously doing better in Franklin. Kunze for example won negligible votes outside of Franklin. Carey's support was relatively evenly distributed. This means you will see lots of lawn signs for the base candidates in their base areas, outnumbering Carey in a particular area but maybe not overall.

Good analysis. The weird thing is though that Mike Carey did extraordinary well and winning every pocket of the district other than the southern half of Fayette County going for Peterson. He won Fairfield County for example despite Lancaster in the northern half being Jeff larae district, and the southern half being part of Ron hoods old District. He won Perry County despite cooperrider having been a county commissioner there. Carey signs in the former were occasional but not common at all, even less than Peterson signs, and were completely absent in Perry County.

I wouldn't have been all surprised if Mike Carey had one by running competitively / second place in most other candidates home basis, while perhaps winning the vote in Franklin County where he's from. But again he almost universally beat every other candidate on their home turf. Though perhaps in Jeff lauray's District hiiraan second but far enough above Hood and the others, and in hoods part of the county hiiraan second there but far enough against Loray and the others, to win the county overall.

And yes, I know my voice to text app sucks

I assume that Ohio does not have open primaries. Correct?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MaxNordau/status/1422902561783308295

[Comrade Funk]

Nina Turner is antisemitic

[pppolitics]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

[Brittain33]

For most districts like this, it is obvious that any victory for a progressive involves running against a damaged incumbent and not setting off too many alarm bells (i.e. massive fundraising numbers or Big Online Followings) until the end of the campaign. Bush, AOC and Bowman all managed to pull this off to varying degrees.

Again, I just want to make clear that your argument is that Brown was always going to win, it was obvious Turner could not make it competitive, and Clyburn was reflecting the conventional wisdom of Brown’s preordained victory by deciding to get involved. Is that accurate? Because I have a hard time squaring that with a 5-point win with few polls.

[Torie]

Interesting maps and analysis of the election available below for those interested.

https://twitter.com/xenocryptsite

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IDK if anyone posted this yet, but apparently both campaigns’ internal polls near the end of the race showed Brown was winning:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1422948401419849739?s=21

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

I've noticed that a decent amount (not all) of the "squad" has learned this. You'll notice some criticisms yes but it's usually directed towards the most moderate members, not the "establishment". AOC for example has a lot less foot-in-mouth moments than she did before.

Nina Turner didn't learn that lesson and it cost her.

Once again I didn't even like her so I don't really care that she lost.

[wbrocks67]

IDK if anyone posted this yet, but apparently both campaigns’ internal polls near the end of the race showed Brown was winning:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1422948401419849739?s=21

actually yeah, I forgot about the NPR report from yesterday about Shontel's internal. Looks like her internal was on point then

[smoltchanov]

Solid, but non-extremist, liberal won. Good...

[Oryxslayer]

IDK if anyone posted this yet, but apparently both campaigns’ internal polls near the end of the race showed Brown was winning:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1422948401419849739?s=21

This also is probably why DFP never released a poll despite their track record. I figured yesterday that the fact they never released one while under contract for Turner was a big hint that Brown was ahead - which is why I predicted a confident Brown win yesterday.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Solid, but non-extremist, liberal won. Good...

[Oryxslayer]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

I've noticed that a decent amount (not all) of the "squad" has learned this. You'll notice some criticisms yes but it's usually directed towards the most moderate members, not the "establishment". AOC for example has a lot less foot-in-mouth moments than she did before.

Nina Turner didn't learn that lesson and it cost her.

Once again I didn't even like her so I don't really care that she lost.

It definitely feels like there is a contingent within the Progressive movement who think burning it all down to build on top is more important than achieving any progressive goals presently. Bernie kinda cultivated this faction in the latter days of the 2016 campaign, which brought them to the forefront. However, as noted, the elected progressives mostly have shunned these commentators - so much so that people like Shawn King and Brianna Joy Grey now seem to be on the outside looking in at the Progressive discussion rather than the other way around. And that is a good thing.

[Benjamin Frank]

I wouldn't make too much of this, but it still might be interesting:

Votes in special election primaries and run-offs for Trump backed candidates:

Texas 6th: 18,279
Ohio 15th: 18,655

I wonder if the ceiling for Trump endorsements in a Congressional district is around 20,000 votes.

That's up to around 9 million votes nationally.

[wbrocks67]

Solid, but non-extremist, liberal won. Good...

This. Which is also why the coverage of this race is ridiculous. Brown is moderate next to Turner i guess, but she's still very liberal. So it's not like this was a liberal vs. conserva-dem situation. But that's what it's being painted as, just because Turner is so extreme.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

I've noticed that a decent amount (not all) of the "squad" has learned this. You'll notice some criticisms yes but it's usually directed towards the most moderate members, not the "establishment". AOC for example has a lot less foot-in-mouth moments than she did before.

Nina Turner didn't learn that lesson and it cost her.

Once again I didn't even like her so I don't really care that she lost.

It definitely feels like there is a contingent within the Progressive movement who think burning it all down to build on top is more important than achieving any progressive goals presently. Bernie kinda cultivated this faction in the latter days of the 2016 campaign, which brought them to the forefront. However, as noted, the elected progressives mostly have shunned these commentators - so much so that people like Shawn King and Brianna Joy Grey now seem to be on the outside looking in at the Progressive discussion rather than the other way around. And that is a good thing.

This is why I don't like calling people like Turner "progressive". There is nothing progressive about this kind of all-bark-no-bite flamethrower populism. These types love to attach themselves to FDR because of the New Deal, but even a cursory look at FDR's approach will tell you that he was much more like Biden than this clown Nina Turner.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Solid, but non-extremist, liberal won. Good...

This. Which is also why the coverage of this race is ridiculous. Brown is moderate next to Turner i guess, but she's still very liberal. So it's not like this was a liberal vs. conserva-dem situation. But that's what it's being painted as, just because Turner is so extreme.

That's been the left's schtick for years now, they use the fact that America's more right-wing than most western countries to imply that they're somehow the moderates.

I've seen people call Elizabeth Warren "centre-right by European and Canadian standards". Centre-right.

Ah, of course. As we all know, Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, and Stephen Harper are great proponents of wealth taxes and workers' representation in corporate boardrooms. Brilliant analysis.

[Meatball Ron]

Solid, but non-extremist, liberal won. Good...

This. Which is also why the coverage of this race is ridiculous. Brown is moderate next to Turner i guess, but she's still very liberal. So it's not like this was a liberal vs. conserva-dem situation. But that's what it's being painted as, just because Turner is so extreme.

That's been the left's schtick for years now, they use the fact that America's more right-wing than most western countries to imply that they're somehow the moderates.

I've seen people call Elizabeth Warren "centre-right by European and Canadian standards". Centre-right.

Ah, of course. As we all know, Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, and Stephen Harper are great proponents of wealth taxes and workers' representation in corporate boardrooms. Brilliant analysis.

Haha, I used to think this way (see below). It's embarrassing. It's so deeply inaccurate but the online left has done a pretty good job of spreading this message farther and wider than you'd hope or expect.

She's basically a moderate if you put her in European politics. America's Political discourse has moved so far to the right however.

Can either you or PC explain how she is a perfect for the Liberal Democrats, or say the Dutch D66 or En Marche? Are those parties Trotskyist?

Perhaps the original post wasn't specific enough; I guess it would be fairer to say that she's a moderate by Scandinavian or Central European standards. I think we're nitpicking though; the broader point is that the spectrum of political ideology and the placement of "extremes" in the U.S. is very far to the right relative to the rest of the world.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

That's been the left's schtick for years now, they use the fact that America's more right-wing than most western countries to imply that they're somehow the moderates.

I've seen people call Elizabeth Warren "centre-right by European and Canadian standards". Centre-right.

Ah, of course. As we all know, Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, and Stephen Harper are great proponents of wealth taxes and workers' representation in corporate boardrooms. Brilliant analysis.

Haha, I used to think this way (see below). It's embarrassing. It's so deeply inaccurate but the online left has done a pretty good job of spreading this message farther and wider than you'd hope or expect.

She's basically a moderate if you put her in European politics. America's Political discourse has moved so far to the right however.

Can either you or PC explain how she is a perfect for the Liberal Democrats, or say the Dutch D66 or En Marche? Are those parties Trotskyist?

Perhaps the original post wasn't specific enough; I guess it would be fairer to say that she's a moderate by Scandinavian or Central European standards. I think we're nitpicking though; the broader point is that the spectrum of political ideology and the placement of "extremes" in the U.S. is very far to the right relative to the rest of the world.

I'm guessing your views had something to do with single-payer healthcare, which is often used as a litmus test by the left. Maybe that makes sense in the American context, but transposing the healthcare issue to other countries is the height of bad American analysis. It makes as much sense as using birthright citizenship as a global litmus test, then implying that America is more liberal than Sweden which uses "the rule of blood", or implying Canada is more conservative than the States because of voter ID laws and point-based immigration.

[cinyc]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1422996230783836171

Interactive here: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/03/august-3-2021-oh-11-oh-15-primary-and-mayoral-races-liveblog

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1422996230783836171
Interactive here: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/03/august-3-2021-oh-11-oh-15-primary-and-mayoral-races-liveblog

"Cleveland's eastern suburbs - particularly Beachwood - came out to vote and voted heavily for
@ShontelbrownO...Turner's base largely didn't."

Do we suck at electoral politics? No, it's the fault of (((dark money)))