Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[BuckeyeNut]

The election for this seat will share dates with the special election for Fudge's seat.

Primary in August, general in November.

[Matty]

Not sure who this is, but seeing Twitter comments that she is a strong recruit

https://mobile.twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1387499957217894402

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

From another thread she’s a state senator from a district that Biden almost won but she carried by double digits

[S019]

Kunze is in, the seat is too red for Democrats to win, and she'd definitely be an improvement over Stivers, so I would not be sad at all, if she won.

[S019]

From another thread she’s a state senator from a district that Biden almost won but she carried by double digits

Other way around, she won narrowly, while Biden won by double digits. Anyways she's quite moderate from quick research, and will surely be an improvement over Stivers.

[Roll Roons]

I'm fairly sure she holds Stivers' old State Senate seat.

Assuming she gets nominated, she will likely put OH-15 completely out of play, but her Senate seat is more likely than not to flip.

[VAR]

Kunze is so #elitist it’s hilarious. She’s pro-choice and anti-gun but has a 100% from the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Her winning the primary would be Atlas memes come true, lol.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Kunze is so #elitist it’s hilarious. She’s pro-choice and anti-gun but has a 100% from the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Her winning the primary would be Atlas memes come true, lol.

How is someone pro-choice and anti-gun supposed to win a GOP primary in a Trump + 14 district?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Kunze is so #elitist it’s hilarious. She’s pro-choice and anti-gun but has a 100% from the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Her winning the primary would be Atlas memes come true, lol.

Democrats can flip it if they run a #populist who's pro-gun and pro-life.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kunze is so #elitist it’s hilarious. She’s pro-choice and anti-gun but has a 100% from the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Her winning the primary would be Atlas memes come true, lol.

How is someone pro-choice and anti-gun supposed to win a GOP primary in a Trump + 14 district?

She won't. Let's look at the primary for OH-12 in the 2018 special election for comparison, shall we?

In OH-12, 30% of all voters live in Franklin County. The percentage of the Republican primary voters living in the county was far fewer, just 24%. There were two serious Franklin County Republicans who ran for the seat. While they were able to get a combined 48% of the vote in Franklin County, they got killed outside of it, which doomed both of their candidacies. Balderson was able to win by getting 29% in a field of nine candidates. He did that by getting 40% of the vote in Licking County, which cast 25% of the vote, and 21% of the vote in Delaware County, which cast 30% of the vote.

In OH-15, 35% of all voters live in Franklin County, but as with OH-12, only 24% of Republican primary voters live in Franklin County. Republicans outside Franklin County will not support Kunze in a primary, and there aren't the votes within it to get her over. Of the candidates currently running, I'd suspect State Representative Jeff LaRe is favored for two reasons. One, he is the only candidate whose whole district is within OH-15, and two, he represents Fairfield County, which will cast the plurality of Republican primary votes.

[BuckeyeNut]

To DTC's point about being pro-choice and anti-gun, Kunze has a 42% rating from the NRA and a 64% rating from both NARAL and Planned Parenthood. I just don't see how she makes it through.

[BuckeyeNut]

State Representative Jeff LaRe (R-Violet Township) is the first candidate to have won formal endorsements in the race, having picked up the support of 10 of his statehouse colleagues. Notable names on the list include Majority Floor Leader Bill Seitz and Assistant Majority Whip Cindy Abrams. None of LaRe's announced endorsements come from the district, but Seitz and Abrams' backing indicates he will have strong financial support.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/KosichJohn/status/1390305904055046150

I can't believe Turner is becoming the established politician's favorite.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KosichJohn/status/1390305904055046150
I can't believe Turner is becoming the established politician's favorite.

If you can't beat em, join em?

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/KosichJohn/status/1390305904055046150

I can't believe Turner is becoming the established politician's favorite.

Why not?

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/KosichJohn/status/1390305904055046150

I can't believe Turner is becoming the established politician's favorite.

Why not?

Look at the first few pages. The (I think reasonable at the time) consensus was that the so-called establishment would line up behind anyone except Turner in the primary, rendering her an extreme long shot. Obviously, the opposite ended up happening somehow.

[JM1295]

Turner is more known nationally as being tied to Bernie's 2020 campaign and being an outspoken surrogate who was critical of the national Democratic party, but she has plenty of ties to the state Ohio Democratic party. She was a state senator in the same area she's now running for a congressional house seat. She isn't carpetbagging or a stranger to OH-11, but a well-known figure. Hell, pretty sure she was a surrogate for Obama during his 2012 reelection in Ohio. I'm surprised more national and mainstream Democrats haven't tried to coalesce against Turner, but idk how much of an impact that would have had with her ties and roots in OH-11.

[ElectionsGuy]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

Yeah I was really wrong about this race.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

It doesn't really work as a "burn" when the people you're talking about owned up to getting the race wrong over a month ago without prompting, but thanks for playing

While we're on the subject of predictions that didn't age well though, how did that Trump will win re-election prediction work out for you?  

[ElectionsGuy]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

Yeah I was really wrong about this race.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

It doesn't really work as a "burn" when the people you're talking about owned up to getting the race wrong over a month ago without prompting, but thanks for playing

While we're on the subject of predictions that didn't age well though, how did that Trump will win re-election prediction work out for you?  

I just find it pretty hilarious that many people can assert like a fact early on how a primary is going to go, and you guys definitely let your dislike of Turner get in control of that. However, that's cool that you admitted you were wrong.

Pretty well, if you actually judge on the margins and details, and not on a binary win/loss method. But I'll say it again in case anyone wants to keep lying about me: I was wrong, and I don't have any problem admitting that. I still have my predictions right below my avatar too. But I'm also not going to say I was more wrong than the people predicting a Biden landslide, that's just disingenuous.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

Yeah I was really wrong about this race.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

It doesn't really work as a "burn" when the people you're talking about owned up to getting the race wrong over a month ago without prompting, but thanks for playing

While we're on the subject of predictions that didn't age well though, how did that Trump will win re-election prediction work out for you?  

I just find it pretty hilarious that many people can assert like a fact early on how a primary is going to go, and you guys definitely let your dislike of Turner get in control of that. However, that's cool that you admitted you were wrong.

Pretty well, if you actually judge on the margins and details, and not on a binary win/loss method. But I'll say it again in case anyone wants to keep lying about me: I was wrong, and I don't have any problem admitting that. I still have my predictions right below my avatar too. But I'm also not going to say I was more wrong than the people predicting a Biden landslide, that's just disingenuous.

In my case, I think it was more that I foolishly assumed the Cuyahoga County Dems might have there act together for once and that I didn’t anticipate Turner reinventing herself as an establishmentarian (props to her for pulling that off btw

I’m not lying, I genuinely didn’t know you’d admitted you were wrong before.

[GeneralMacArthur]

In my case, I think it was more that I foolishly assumed the Cuyahoga County Dems might have there act together for once and that I didn’t anticipate Turner reinventing herself as an establishmentarian (props to her for pulling that off btw

It helps to have enormous amounts of money.  Funny how people all over the country are donating tons of cash to Turner so she can use it to distance herself from them and lie to voters that she was never really one of them.

[BuckeyeNut]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

Yeah I was really wrong about this race.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

It doesn't really work as a "burn" when the people you're talking about owned up to getting the race wrong over a month ago without prompting, but thanks for playing

While we're on the subject of predictions that didn't age well though, how did that Trump will win re-election prediction work out for you?  

I just find it pretty hilarious that many people can assert like a fact early on how a primary is going to go, and you guys definitely let your dislike of Turner get in control of that. However, that's cool that you admitted you were wrong.

Pretty well, if you actually judge on the margins and details, and not on a binary win/loss method. But I'll say it again in case anyone wants to keep lying about me: I was wrong, and I don't have any problem admitting that. I still have my predictions right below my avatar too. But I'm also not going to say I was more wrong than the people predicting a Biden landslide, that's just disingenuous.

In my case, I think it was more that I foolishly assumed the Cuyahoga County Dems might have there act together for once and that I didn’t anticipate Turner reinventing herself as an establishmentarian (props to her for pulling that off btw

I’m not lying, I genuinely didn’t know you’d admitted you were wrong before.

That is where you f***ed up. If the CCDP were competent, Cleveland would have topped 56% turnout in 2016. If the CCDP were competent, David Greenspan would have lost in 2018. If the CCDP were competent, Matt Dolan would have lost in 2020.

[BuckeyeNut]

Democratic State Senator Tina Maharath will NOT be running. Thank God.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm fairly sure she holds Stivers' old State Senate seat.

Assuming she gets nominated, she will likely put OH-15 completely out of play, but her Senate seat is more likely than not to flip.

Well Ohio doesn’t have do special elections for the state legislature. They just nominate replacements. And the seat won’t be up until 2024 anyway. And it’s a redistricting cycle.