Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Benjamin Frank]

anybody know of live stream coverage?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Knowing Rs luck in special elections they are probably going to lose UT-02 to a Democrat.

[Oryxslayer]

Knowing Rs luck in special elections they are probably going to lose UT-02 to a Democrat.

What do you mean by this exactly: the base nominates a radical and the Dem wins the special, or Edwards wins as a ultimate RINO now, and then flips to Dem or D-caucusing Indie when the Utah Supreme Court re-legitimatizes the redistricting commission and they draw a Biden+20 SLC seat?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Knowing Rs luck in special elections they are probably going to lose UT-02 to a Democrat.

What do you mean by this exactly: the base nominates a radical and the Dem wins the special, or Edwards wins as a ultimate RINO now, and then flips to Dem or D-caucusing Indie when the Utah Supreme Court re-legitimatizes the redistricting commission and they draw a Biden+20 SLC seat?

The Dem wins the special no matter who the R nominates.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Amo is leading with the first (very few) returns in from Barrington and Tiverton.

This is the part of the district he'll do better in. Need to see some returns from the northern part of the district to tell how good his final result will be ofc.

[Benjamin Frank]

Gabriel Amo (D)
1,438
40.4%
Aaron Regunberg (D)
849
23.9%
Sandra Cano (D)
463
13.0%

Other candidates
806
22.7%
9% of vote in

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Calling 4th place right now for Sabina Matos. A spectacular failure for the once-frontrunner and the only statewide elected official.

[Benjamin Frank]

Gabriel Amo (D)
3,532
33.6%
Aaron Regunberg (D)
3,040
28.9%
Sandra Cano (D)
1,313
12.5%

Other candidates
2,639
25.1%
27% of vote in

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Providence just dumped 60% of its votes and it was Regunberg 33 - Amo 26. Still not even enough for Regunberg to take the lead.

Maybe Amo can actually pull this off???!

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like we have a race on our hands with the anti-Regunberg vote managing to coalesce for Amo.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Honestly shocked the anti-Regunberg vote was able to consolidate around Amo as efficiently as it seems to be. I was totally in the dark about who would do better between Amo and Cano.

Cano of course is a bit more progressive so she wasnt necessarily competing for the same voters as Amo though.

[Senator Incitatus]

Providence just dumped 60% of its votes and it was Regunberg 33 - Amo 26. Still not even enough for Regunberg to take the lead.

Maybe Amo can actually pull this off???!

Probably not if even that margin is replicated in the rest of Providence and the bordering towns. That's going to be the vast majority of the district's vote. But it's closer than I'd have guessed before results came in.

Any sense of which precincts these are?

edit: Amo is leading in all of the bordering towns and cities, so it could happen. Is that election day or early voting?

[Oryxslayer]

Current status of RI. Amo vs Rugenberg, Matos collapsed. Providence city has 63% of the vote counted by NYt estimates.

[Benjamin Frank]

Gabriel Amo (D)
5,461
35.8%
Aaron Regunberg (D)
4,202
27.6%
Sandra Cano (D)
1,927
12.7%

Other candidates
3,643
23.9%
40% of vote in

[Benjamin Frank]

Gabriel Amo (D)
6,869
33.2%
Aaron Regunberg (D)
5,266
25.5%
Sandra Cano (D)
3,041
14.7%

Other candidates
5,515
26.7%
54% of vote in

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Regunberg is losing every town to Amo to various degrees, except the portion of the city of Providence that is in the district. In particular the very leafy and lefty East Side of Providence (not to be confused with the separate city of East Providence) looks to be coming in big for Regunberg, as expected. But maybe only campaigning on the campus of Brown wasn't the best idea.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like Regunberg is probably going to finish third in Pawtucket, and that could be the difference. Still a decent amount of Providence vote out there.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Regunberg got destroyed in heavily Latino Central Falls, finishing behind Cano, Matos (!!) and Amo.

Woonsocket is currently going for state Rep. Stephen Casey but his support seems very limited to just that part of the district.

[NewYorkExpress]

Politico has called the Republican Primary (not that it really matters) in RI-1 for Gerry Leonard Jr.

[Benjamin Frank]

Gabriel Amo (D)
9,223
33.6%
Aaron Regunberg (D)
6,902
25.2%
Sandra Cano (D)
3,918
14.3%

Other candidates
7,374
26.9%
71% of vote in

It would take a lot for Regunberg to catch up.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I'll be damned. Not calling it for Amo yet, but my dooming about Regunberg being inevitable looks pretty silly right now. Turns out lefty activists types don't vote just like we knew all along!

I'll be over the moon if Amo pulls this off. This could turn into Shontel Brown vs. Nina Turner 2.0.

[Benjamin Frank]

Gabriel Amo (D)
9,950
33.5%
Aaron Regunberg (D)
7,536
25.4%
Sandra Cano (D)
4,200
14.1%

Other candidates
8,041
27.0%
77% of vote in

Amo has gained with each update.

[Oryxslayer]

Cinyc's precinct tracker reveals sweeping cross-district support for Amo, except when there are local fiefs: Regunberg in East Providence (the city), Matos in the rest of Providence, Cano in Central Falls, Caey in Woonsocket.

[Senator Incitatus]

But maybe only campaigning on the campus of Brown wasn't the best idea.

Building a political career representing college students, i.e., the most transient voter base possible, is probably also not a recipe for success.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

It'll probably get to within 2 points or so when Providence dumps the rest but I'm not sure if Regunberg can overtake Amo even with that.