What went wrong for Christina Hale?

[Tekken_Guy]

What went wrong for Christina Hale in IN-05?

[VAR]

Biden didn't even win IN-05. That's the district where polls had him up by double digits.

[KaiserDave]

Biden didn't even win IN-05.

Wait I thought he did

[VAR]

Biden didn't even win IN-05.

Wait I thought he did

Nope, Trump won it by 2.

[Pollster]

Republican turnout.

[Benjamin Frank]

She got less votes than her opponent.

From Steven Wright:
"A cop stopped me for speeding/ He said, 'Why were you going so fast?' I said, 'See this thing my foot is on? It's called an accelerator. When you push down on it, it sends more gas to the engine. The whole car just takes right off. And see this thing [mimes steering wheel]? This steers it'"

[lfromnj]

People(including me to a degree by the end) ignored the 25-30% of the district that wasn't in Marion/Hamilton/Boone. Although Hale basically matched Donnely's numbers there she didn't do it in the rest.

[Frenchrepublican]

People(including me to a degree by the end) ignored the 25-30% of the district that wasn't in Marion/Hamilton/Boone. Although Hale basically matched Donnely's numbers there she didn't do it in the rest.

Well, you were not alone, don’t worry most pundits expected this district to flip

[Frenchrepublican]

Nothing, it’s just that Cook/Wasserman/Rothenberg and other experts saw that Donnelly carried the district and thus they decided that it was going to flip while completely overlooking the fact that Donnelly had lost statewide by only a single digit margin, that created a false narrative about this district, obviously the hackish dem internal polls didn’t help and amplified this narrative.

[lfromnj]

Nothing, it’s just that Cook/Wasserman/Rothenberg and other experts saw that Donnelly carried the district and thus they decided that it was going to flip while completely overlooking the fact that Donnelly had lost statewide by only a single digit margin, that created a false narrative about this district, obviously the hackish dem internal polls didn’t help and amplified this narrative.

No thats still wrong, Biden still came pretty close in the district. Although I did LOL at any poll that would show Biden within 7 points in Indiana I did buy Biden doing a bit better than Donnelly here although lol at double digits digits. However I did forget about the more rural parts of this district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

She needed suburban trends in the district to be about 4-8 years ahead of where they were this year.

[Pollster]

Nothing, it’s just that Cook/Wasserman/Rothenberg and other experts saw that Donnelly carried the district and thus they decided that it was going to flip while completely overlooking the fact that Donnelly had lost statewide by only a single digit margin, that created a false narrative about this district, obviously the hackish dem internal polls didn’t help and amplified this narrative.

No thats still wrong, Biden still came pretty close in the district. Although I did LOL at any poll that would show Biden within 7 points in Indiana I did buy Biden doing a bit better than Donnelly here although lol at double digits digits. However I did forget about the more rural parts of this district.

She needed suburban trends in the district to be about 4-8 years ahead of where they were this year.

These are both good analyses - this district definitely zoomed leftward, if turnout looked like 2018 this year like many pollsters expected and trends continued at the pace they did, Hale probably wins comfortably. Redistricting will probably do a number here, but I'll be really curious to see how the current district lines vote in 2024.