Why do People Consider Florida Likely R ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Ok the state trended against the democrats by around 5 points, that means literally nothing looking back to past elections. States like Indiana and Iowa trended incredibly democrat in 2008 and 2020, Indiana had a 12+ point democratic trend and Iowa trended left in 2012. This meant less than nothing in the subsequent election where they experienced massive swings.

The state is still a toss-up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No state has had a consistent trend in one direction; even states like MI, AZ, and GA have bounced back and forth a little bit. It makes it challenging to know whether FL will actually continue to trend rightwards, if it will stagnate, or if it'll bounce back a bit; still have to give the GOP a slight edge, but likely R is very premature in my view, especially this far out.

[Crumpets]

Personally, I think it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sure, Dems could win Florida. But now we know we don't have to, and it's an expensive place to try to sink resources into. So, I suspect campaign managers will make it lower priority than it has been in years past.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally, I think it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sure, Dems could win Florida. But now we know we don't have to, and it's an expensive place to try to sink resources into. So, I suspect campaign managers will make it lower priority than it has been in years past.

Though winning FL does block off any GOP path and the furthest left Ds can get it to vote relative to the nation, the smaller R's EC advantage gets. I would still heavily invest for 2024, and if it votes 7% to the right of the nation again, place it lower on the priority list going forwards.

[Red Wall]

Dems can only win Florida with Hillary mumbers in Dade and Bill Nelson numbers in Duval, Orange, Pinellas and Hillsborough. Obama coalition not possible anymore.

[Former President tack50]

Florida voted 7 points to the right of the US at large. That is generally considered the definition of "likely R" in a neutral environment? Though I guess I can see an argument for Lean R too; especially if you do believe that the PV favours Dems in perpetuity now.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

it's literally trump's home state. biden wouldn't have won DE by as much if he was from, IDK, Washington State.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

it's literally trump's home state. biden wouldn't have won DE by as much if he was from, IDK, Washington State.

I can assure you, not a single Floridan thinks of Trump as one.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

it's literally trump's home state. biden wouldn't have won DE by as much if he was from, IDK, Washington State.

I can assure you, not a single Floridan thinks of Trump as one.

I disagree. trump spent large portions of the winter in Florida and called Mar-A-Lago the "Winter White House" or the "Southern White House."  He'll likely live there when he retires. It may have had a bigger effect than you might expect.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

it's literally trump's home state. biden wouldn't have won DE by as much if he was from, IDK, Washington State.

I can assure you, not a single Floridan thinks of Trump as one.

I disagree. trump spent large portions of the winter in Florida and called Mar-A-Lago the "Winter White House" or the "Southern White House."  He'll likely live there when he retires. It may have had a bigger effect than you might expect.

1. What Trump says and what Floridans think are two different beasts.

2. You can't compare the home state effect of Biden (whose state has 960,000 people, and who has lived in it for over half a century and represented it in the Senate for 36 years) with that of Trump (whose state has more than 20,000,000 people, and who moved there a couple years ago after having been a lifelong New Yorker).

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

it's literally trump's home state. biden wouldn't have won DE by as much if he was from, IDK, Washington State.

I can assure you, not a single Floridan thinks of Trump as one.

I disagree. trump spent large portions of the winter in Florida and called Mar-A-Lago the "Winter White House" or the "Southern White House."  He'll likely live there when he retires. It may have had a bigger effect than you might expect.

1. What Trump says and what Floridans think are two different beasts.

2. You can't compare the home state effect of Biden (whose state has 960,000 people, and who has lived in it for over half a century and represented it in the Senate for 36 years) with that of Trump (whose state has more than 20,000,000 people, and who moved there a couple years ago after having been a lifelong New Yorker).

1. yes, I'm simply stating the fact that trump spent a lot of his time in Florida as POTUS.

2. Barack Obama received a colossal home-state boost across IL, which is similarly sized to FL but more centered around  1 metro.

[Del Tachi]

No state has had a consistent trend in one direction; even states like MI, AZ, and GA have bounced back and forth a little bit. It makes it challenging to know whether FL will actually continue to trend rightwards, if it will stagnate, or if it'll bounce back a bit; still have to give the GOP a slight edge, but likely R is very premature in my view, especially this far out.

FL has actually trended R in every election since 2000, barring 2012

[MATTROSE94]

Because the top four Republican contenders (Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, and Rick Scott) are literal “Florida Men”?

[Person Man]

Because Florida Democrats are lazy.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida's trend this election was significant compared to most other states, as this was one of the most stable election swings in US history. But overall, it is not the end of the world for Florida Dems. The trend is not guaranteed to continue, much of the state actually swung Dem in 2020 but was more than offset by the monster gains made by the GOP in Miami-Dade and to a smaller extent Orlando and the rest of southeast Florida. But it is absolutely not a toss-up, OP. It has voted to the right of the country in every election since the 70's, and now it's voted more right of the country since 1988. I don't think there's any real justification for calling it a toss-up anymore, in a competitive election at least.

[Xing]

People are assuming that Democrats will continue to struggle with Cubans. They might, but it's not a given.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It has a Cuban Embargo on it and if Rick Scott feels that he is endangered he would give his seat to Matt Gaetz. FL, OH, and IA aren't needed to clinch the EC college for D's anyways, it's wave insurance. But, there is a chance since FL votes for INCUMBENTS that D's can finally win it

[AGA]

No. FL is Likely R because Democrats have a hard ceiling there. The only reason Democrats have a chance there in 2024 is because an incumbent Biden could be running and/or the economy could be very good. Rubio and DeSantis are safe for 2022, however.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Dems consider Florida likely R due to PTSD from previous elections.

[SnowLabrador]

Because it is. The state party is basically useless.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It is tilt R/lean R hybrid.  If the Cuban/Hispanic swing is permanent then FL is going to be permanently Lean R, it could be a fluke like in the RGV. Both Hillary and Biden were good fits for Florida, they both blew Bernie out of the water in the primary, but Trump was a even better Florida candidate.

I think in 2024, FL will be to the right of TX. FL was only 2.3 points to the right of TX this year.

[pbrower2a]

Florida hasn't been more D than the US as a whole for a very long time. It has not been extremely close in a close election since 2000. Florida has a Republican machine that can sway an election to itself in a close national election... but it is wise enough to know to not cheat in a loss.

It does swing. It has voted for Democratic nominees in two of the last six, and three of the last eight elections.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

it's literally trump's home state. biden wouldn't have won DE by as much if he was from, IDK, Washington State.

Biden grew up in Delaware and was a senator from that state for 36 years. It's also a very small state that has a smaller population than the Tulsa metropolitan area. Whatever "home" state advantage that lifelong New Yorker Trump may have had in Florida is nowhere near what Biden would have in Delaware.

[Diabolical Materialism]

If the Democrats are the party of New York values, the GOP has become the party of Florida values.

[DabbingSanta]

Last gubernatorial Dem win: 1994

Last class II senate Dem win: 2012

Last class III senate Dem win: 1998

Last presidential Dem win: 2012