Georgia going way of Virginia or North Carolina

[Da2017]

Georgia is fascinating. It voted to the left of North Carolina for the first time since I don't know when. Will Georgia go the way of Virginia a lean D to Likely D in a couple of election or will be like North Carolina where it still has that lean Repubican but the trend towards democratic sort of stalls.

[Matty]

tough to say at this point.

I think it will be a battleground for many many cycles.

VA had some unique characteristics that caused it to flip so fast.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I believe 2000 was the last time until now that NC voted to the right of GA. I think it'll be a highly competitive state based on fluctuations in the turnout of each party's base until rural population reaches a floor as a proportion of the statewide population and/or leftward lurches in the exurbs continue until you see the GOP claim less than 65% in counties like Cherokee or Forsyth or smaller metro counties like Lowndes or Houston come within single digits. With what little knowledge we can have now towards its future trends, I'd call it a toss-up for the rest of the decade and lean D thereafter. North Carolina voting for Obama in 2008 is in my view probably analogous to Colorado voting for Clinton in 1992: a sort of warning shot of trends to come that took a while to be delivered on due to realigning demographics, but it could well turn out to be the next Florida if it stabilizes sooner.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A lot of it depends on whether suburbs like Atlanta's bounce back post-Trump or whether they keep moving leftwards.  They're almost certainly not going back to Romney's numbers, but even returning to Trump '16 numbers in those sorts of suburbs could help stabilize Georgia in the short term.  In the long term, I think that it largely depends on racial depolarization.

[Matty]

A lot of it depends on whether suburbs like Atlanta's bounce back post-Trump or whether they keep moving leftwards.  They're almost certainly not going back to Romney's numbers, but even returning to Trump '16 numbers in those sorts of suburbs could help stabilize Georgia in the short term.  In the long term, I think that it largely depends on racial depolarization.

A lot also depends on future of dem party.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably Virginia.  There's basically no one left for the GOP to flip in GA. 

AZ looks a lot more like an NC situation where both parties stand to increase their bases.  It's also clear that Republicans have some future upside in TX even if the suburbs keep swinging Dem.  I just don't see that in GA.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably Virginia.  There's basically no one left for the GOP to flip in GA. 

AZ looks a lot more like an NC situation where both parties stand to increase their bases.  It's also clear that Republicans have some future upside in TX even if the suburbs keep swinging Dem.  I just don't see that in GA.

I think you could easily see TX suburbs snap back to GOP against a non-Trump Republican.

[Xing]

It's strange to say it's "going the way of North Carolina" when it just voted left of North Carolina, no? I'm not sure it will become Democratic as quickly as Virginia, but suffice to say it's already seemingly a bigger problem for Republicans than North Carolina.

[Bootes Void]

Probably Virginia.  There's basically no one left for the GOP to flip in GA. 

AZ looks a lot more like an NC situation where both parties stand to increase their bases.  It's also clear that Republicans have some future upside in TX even if the suburbs keep swinging Dem.  I just don't see that in GA.

I think you could easily see TX suburbs snap back to GOP against a non-Trump Republican.

2012 levels? that wont happen but it could be between 2016 and 2020 levels(halfway) ands thats just being optimistic

[Smash255]

Likely more of between them.  NC has stabilized into a tilt GOP swing state, Virginia is safe Dem.   I don't see Georgia going completely the way of Virginia, but more of a tilt to Dem leaning swing state is more likely.

[Figueira]

I think it will probably go the way of Virginia, but Virginia was still a swing state in 2012, and Georgia will still be a swing state in 2024.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

It will still be winnable in 2024 (like VA 12) but will have a pretty strong lean by 2028 (like VA 16-18).  By 2028 VA will look like Illinois or New Jersey.

[Chips]

I'd say NC for now. I have it barely flipping back to the GOP in 2024 before going rather solid for the GOP in 2028. 2036 will be the next time after this Dems win GA I feel.

[Squidward500]

It’ll go the way of Virginia and colorado. Much of the new arrivals are black people moving into Atlanta from other metros up north.

This will benefit Dems in Georgia but at the expense of Dems in Michigan and Pennsylvania

[Devils30]

I think as soon as 2024 and definitely 2028 it could go to a losing Democrat the way VA did in 2016.