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March 01, 2021, 08:53:17 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: ON Progressive)
  Why did Romney lose Florida?
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Author Topic: Why did Romney lose Florida?  (Read 1452 times)
MARGINS6729
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« on: July 16, 2020, 04:39:12 AM »

Im sure there were tossup predictions and Obama predictions but the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Romney would prevail in Florida despite him being likely to lose the election. Why do you think he lost the state? What were your predictions at the time?
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Panda Express
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2020, 06:59:52 AM »

It was predicted to be very close no matter what, many people thought Romney would eke it out but ultimately

1. Obama had a good ground game
2. Obama improved with the Cubans, enough to offset erosion from 2008 elsewhere. Both Miami and Broward counties actually swung towards Obama.

In Miami-Dade, the most populous county, Obama beat McCain by 16, Romney by 24
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2020, 08:12:08 AM »

Obama did pretty well having a huge turnout in South Florida.
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2020, 06:47:54 AM »

Obama did do extremely well in Miami-Dade.
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foolcase
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2020, 11:08:05 AM »

Massive election fraud for Obama in Miami Dade.
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Orwell
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2020, 11:30:43 AM »

Massive election fraud for Obama in Miami Dade.

Would you like to provide evidence back up your outrageous claim?



The answer is Obama had a great ground game in Florida and across much of the United States. He was also able to paint Romney early on as the candidate of the rich and exploited Romney's record on Bain, there was also the fact Romney was forced to lurch to the right during the primary and his pivot back to the center in the general was not extremely effective.
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Redban
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2020, 10:43:23 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 09:42:56 PM by Redban »

Im sure there were tossup predictions and Obama predictions but the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Romney would prevail in Florida despite him being likely to lose the election. Why do you think he lost the state? What were your predictions at the time?

I don't agree -- I don't think that was conventional wisdom. Republican commentators said that Florida looked good, but those same folks were the ones who looked bad on election day (Dick Morris?).

The accurate forecasters said that Florida was pure tossup, as it was. I knew Romney was in trouble when, late in October, he was still campaigning hard in Florida instead of WI, PA, MI, IA, OH etc. It meant his internal polls showed that he wasn't doing too well here, which meant the other states were even worse.

He lost Florida simply because he lost the election by 4%. There were also some attacks against Paul Ryan regarding Medicare cuts.
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2020, 01:25:13 PM »

Also, Bill Nelson. I'm sure that had at least some impact.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2020, 09:04:28 PM »

It was close, but in the end Romney's campaign ran some Spanish-language ads trying to connect Obama to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. Neither stuck.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 10:56:06 AM »

I'm sure Romney's 47% comment didn't help there.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2020, 11:25:53 AM »

inelasticity outside of Miami helped Obama, as he improved massively in Miami
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2020, 05:45:52 PM »

Bill Nelson gave D's a distinct advantage in FL and he won his race convincingly, just like Sinema in 2024/ will help Biden win AZ in 2024
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2020, 05:50:32 PM »

It's ironic how the same county (Miami-Dade) that gave Obama Florida in 2012 handed the state to Trump this year.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2021, 09:27:21 AM »

To what extent was Olds thinking Paul Ryan would take their Medicare and Social Security away a factor?
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TML
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2021, 10:38:58 AM »

Back in 2012, Democrats hadn't yet tanked in suburban/exurban I-4. Romney won this region by 217K votes, whereas Trump won it by 449K votes in 2016 and 494K votes in 2020. (Also of note: In 2018 Scott won it by 338K and DeSantis by 355K votes, respectively).
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2021, 01:03:46 PM »

It's ironic how the same county (Miami-Dade) that gave Obama Florida in 2012 handed the state to Trump this year.
Well even if Biden got the same margin out of Miami Dade as Clinton, he would still come up short mathematically. But yeah the huge swing to Trump in Florida is mostly cause of Florida Latinos/Miami Dade
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SecularGlobalist
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« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2021, 01:49:29 PM »

His magic underwear-wearing ways suppressed the Xtian vote just enough to deny him the WH. 
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2021, 07:01:57 PM »

To what extent was Olds thinking Paul Ryan would take their Medicare and Social Security away a factor?

It was probably the real deciding factor.

2012 swing:


Obama vote:


2016 swings:


Clinton vote:


For all the hoopla over immigration, it wouldn't have mattered had it not been for Romney's mediocre performance in white retiree communities like Volusia, Pasco, etc. I have no doubt this underperformance was tied to his support of Social Security privatization schemes.
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Chips
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« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2021, 09:52:16 PM »

Obama did pretty well having a huge turnout in South Florida.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2021, 01:47:43 PM »

It's ironic how the same county (Miami-Dade) that gave Obama Florida in 2012 handed the state to Trump this year.
Well even if Biden got the same margin out of Miami Dade as Clinton, he would still come up short mathematically. But yeah the huge swing to Trump in Florida is mostly cause of Florida Latinos/Miami Dade

You're right. But Miami-Dade took Florida clearly off the table for Biden. When I saw how poorly he was doing there in early returns, I knew that he would lose the state.
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