NoVA vs Montgomery County, MD

[All Along The Watchtower]

Montgomery County, Maryland voted for Obama, 71-27.

Contrast this with Fairfax County, VA, which voted for Obama 59-40; Prince William County, VA, which voted for Obama 57-41; and Loudoun County, VA, which voted for Obama 52-47.

Why were the NoVA counties significantly closer in results than Montgomery County, MD? The high income levels, racial distribution, and high educational levels are comparable between them. Both areas are suburban parts of the D.C. metro that have grown fast in recent years.

Something must account for Montgomery County's more strong pro-Obama margin. Maybe it's economic? (perhaps more public sector workers in Montgomery County vs NoVA's huge defense-industrial sector)?

[Benj]

NOVA is wealthier. Also, different sorts of people choose to live in Virginia than in Maryland, in part for political reasons (especially when many of them work in politics). There's also much better public transportation to DC in MontCo than in NOVA (but compare Arlington to MontCo).

The factors you identified also contribute.

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe it's economic? (perhaps more public sector workers in Montgomery County vs NoVA's huge defense-industrial sector)?

That's what I would guess.

There's also probably some amount of self-selection, with liberals deciding to commute to work from the blue state and conservatives deciding to do so from the redder state. The two areas definitely feel different, from my experience driving through both occasionally when I lived in DC. NoVA is much more suburban: lots of big highways, long stretches of road, not many trees, big giant newly built houses, people drive a lot more. Montgomery County has some of that as well, especially the further you get from DC, but when you first drive across the border it doesn't feel that different from Northwest DC. It's still relatively urban, the houses are older (and smaller), there are a lot more trees, the streets are smaller, people take more public transportation.

MontCo is also less white than Northern Virginia I'm pretty sure.

[pa2011]

For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.

If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery  attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.

Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.

Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already  routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.

Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent  for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable.  But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.

[Kitteh]

It's a mix of things, as others have said.

A lot of it is the military-industrial complex in Virginia vs more tech and healthcare based economy in Maryland. The federal government probably supports (directly or indirectly) at least as high if not a higher percentage of people in NoVA, but there is a huge difference. Not only do those industries attract different types of people, the military industry has a much higher percentage of employees who work for private companies that contract with and depend on the government (the "industrial" part of military-industrial complex") vs actual public workers. So these workers generally have an incentive to support cutting government spending in other areas to pay for defense spending and vote for the party that promises that. Whereas public employees are more likely to oppose spending cuts in general.

Some of it has to do with the fact that the suburbs in Maryland have invested more in public transit and are much "closer" to DC and more attractive to people who want a house with a yard but still want to be able to walk places. A house that's ten miles from DC in Maryland and a house that's ten miles from DC in Virginia are going to look very different.

Some of it is MontCo receiving more and more poor residents who were gentrified out of DC. That's a huge and underrated part of why the Maryland suburbs, Montgomery and Charles counties in particular, have drifted to the left, while its less of a thing in NoVA for a variety of reasons, including the Maryland suburbs having more of an established "black culture" than the until recently pearly white NoVA suburbs and Maryland having better services and support for lower income people than Virginia.

Some of it is that MontCo includes areas closer in to DC that are more similar to Arlington than Fairfax (everything from the DC border to about Bethesda is more like Arlington than Fairfax county). If you split inner MontCo and outer MontCo into two counties, the differences between outer MontCo and Fairfax would not look so huge. 

Some of it is also self-selection people seeking a more liberal climate moving to MD vs people seeking lower taxes moving to VA. So the differences become self-reinforcing; people who would rather have higher taxes and more funding for transport and schools move to the areas with higher taxes and more funding for transport and schools and subsequently vote for higher taxes and more funding for transport and schools, and vice versa for people who want the opposite.

[Calthrina950]

For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.

If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery  attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.

Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.

Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already  routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.

Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent  for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable.  But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.

Biden and Warner both got nearly 70% in Fairfax County last year, and Kaine got 71% in 2018. Democrats have certainly gone past this benchmark.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.

If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery  attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.

Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.

Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already  routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.

Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent  for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable.  But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.

Biden and Warner both got nearly 70% in Fairfax County last year, and Kaine got 71% in 2018. Democrats have certainly gone past this benchmark.

And that, combined with VA's population growth being concentrated there, is a key factor in VA losing swing state status.

[Calthrina950]

For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.

If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery  attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.

Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.

Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already  routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.

Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent  for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable.  But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.

Biden and Warner both got nearly 70% in Fairfax County last year, and Kaine got 71% in 2018. Democrats have certainly gone past this benchmark.

And that, combined with VA's population growth being concentrated there, is a key factor in VA losing swing state status.

This is certainly true. It truly is fascinating to see how dramatically Northern Virginia-and many other regions of the country, have shifted in just a decade. Biden did 10% better than Obama in Fairfax County and Loudoun County and 6% better in Prince William County, and he also improved by 10% over Obama in both Arlington and Alexandria. Henrico County moved towards the Democrats, Biden improved over Obama by 10% in Albermarle County, and he flipped Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach City. However, Obama outperformed Biden throughout much of rural Virginia, including the Black Belt, and won several counties (i.e. Nelson, Caroline, Essex) that Biden lost. The trends have gone in both directions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.

If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery  attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.

Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.

Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already  routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.

Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent  for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable.  But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.

Biden and Warner both got nearly 70% in Fairfax County last year, and Kaine got 71% in 2018. Democrats have certainly gone past this benchmark.

And that, combined with VA's population growth being concentrated there, is a key factor in VA losing swing state status.

This is certainly true. It truly is fascinating to see how dramatically Northern Virginia-and many other regions of the country, have shifted in just a decade. Biden did 10% better than Obama in Fairfax County and Loudoun County and 6% better in Prince William County, and he also improved by 10% over Obama in both Arlington and Alexandria. Henrico County moved towards the Democrats, Biden improved over Obama by 10% in Albermarle County, and he flipped Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach City. However, Obama outperformed Biden throughout much of rural Virginia, including the Black Belt, and won several counties (i.e. Nelson, Caroline, Essex) that Biden lost. The trends have gone in both directions.

Fairfax County had a lot of people who grew up despising and/or disliking Bush and the early 2000s GOP, and these people ended up voting for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They became regular voters in the later 2010s, powering Democrats to a win over Barbara Comstock and flipping many seats in the House of Delegates to the Democrats.
The process is still ongoing as Old Virginia slowly melts away and Dems continue to build their demographic advantage in the region. There are also party switchers who have left the GOP as the GOP has turned more and more away from the Bush style GOP that won in Northern Virginia.
Meanwhile, in SW VA, New Deal Era Dems died off, lowering the Dem floor there and leaving Rep. Rick Boucher an ex-Representative.