2014 AR-SEN: Bill Clinton vs. Tom Cotton

[Alben Barkley]

Let’s suppose that Bill Clinton stayed in his home state of Arkansas rather than move to New York after his presidency. Let’s further suppose that in 2014, seeing the writing on the wall, Mark Pryor decides to retire rather than run for another Senate term. Bill Clinton is begged by Arkansas Democrats to run for the open seat, knowing he’s their only hope.

Does he have a chance? Was Arkansas too far gone for any Democrat at that point, or would Slick Willie’s legendary retail politics and charisma have made it winnable?

[S019]

He loses by slightly more than Pryor

[Alben Barkley]

He loses by slightly more than Pryor

I dunno about that, he was still pretty personally popular in the state. He’s not Hillary. If he lost, I would think it would be closer, not worse.

[S019]

He loses by slightly more than Pryor

I dunno about that, he was still pretty personally popular in the state. He’s not Hillary. If he lost, I would think it would be closer, not worse.

Pryor was also an institution in the state, besides Bill Clinton would have been out of the Governorship for like 20+ years and out of the White House for 14 and he had even gone and moved to New York with Hillary, he'd be seen as an out-of-touch coastal liberal, especially given how Arkansas lurched to the right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obviously no chance.

[NewYorkExpress]

It's a lot closer, but Cotton still wins, largely due to the GOP wave.

Tom Cotton (R) 50%
Bill Clinton (D) 47.5%

[KaiserDave]

Cotton wins by more.

[Continential]

60-40 Cotton

[Chips]

Cotton still wins.

[TDAS04]

Cotton still wins by double digits.

[SirRosetti]

Cotton

[One Term Floridian]

Let’s suppose that Bill Clinton stayed in his home state of Arkansas rather than move to New York after his presidency. Let’s further suppose that in 2014, seeing the writing on the wall, Mark Pryor decides to retire rather than run for another Senate term. Bill Clinton is begged by Arkansas Democrats to run for the open seat, knowing he’s their only hope.

Does he have a chance? Was Arkansas too far gone for any Democrat at that point, or would Slick Willie’s legendary retail politics and charisma have made it winnable?

"Bill Clinton, you're our only hope" defeats Tom Cotton by 0.5% in 2014. That is, if he decided to stay in AR rather than move on to NY and continued to stay active in AR politics. Mike Ross would do a little better in AR Gov but would lost by about 10 points against Asa Hutchinson. Senator Bill Clinton (D-AR) would not run for re-election in 2020 and the seat would be an easier pick up for the GOP than AL was IRL.

The only two significant departures I can see from our TL would be that Betsy DeVoss does NOT become Secretary of Education (she is rejected by the Senate 49-51) and *possibly* Hillary Clinton is estranged or even divorced from her husband or decides not to run for President again and stays with Bill in AR (doubtful).