The Reverse Gerrymandering Project

[Sol]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

"Proportionally partisan" =/= fair. Proportionality isn't and shouldn't be the goal of redistricting.

Strongly agree. I actually do agree with the notion that proportionality should be the way in which our legislature is constituted, but that's basically incompatible with FPTP, and it's why PR of some variety is a better system.

[OBD]

Louisiana



One of the South's only divided government states, Louisiana gets a fair map with relatively compact districts (especially compared to the current iteration). Accordingly, some of the incumbents have to play musical chairs - Rep. Steve Scalise and Rep. Garrett Graves switch seats, and Rep.  Clay Higgins has to decide between running in a newly competitive 5th District or trying to primary Rep. Luke Letlow in his old 3rd District (though the 3rd is a GOP hold regardless).

5th District: This seat is the definition of a perennial swing seat - it voted McCain+2, Clinton+1, and likely Biden +2-4, and doesn't appear to have any prevailing trends (Lafayette and Baton Rouge moving left while the remainder of the district is shifting right). Regardless of who runs here in 2022, it'd be a battleground - though Republican institutional strength and the national political enviroment ultimately allow the Republican candidate to edge by 52-47.

Change in Delegation from 2020: NONE

[OBD]

Arkansas



Another Southern state, another Democratic gerrymander - Arkansas's rightward shift limits what Democrats can do here, but one solid seat is still possible. That said, this map doesn't draw out any non-French Hill Republican incumbents, a small mercy for AR Republicans.

2nd District: Stretching from Fayetteville to the Memphis suburbs, this heavily gerrymandered district contains most of Arkansas's Democratic strength. It likely trended Republican decently between 2016 and 2020, but as a Clinton+17 seat that also contains areas like Little Rock and Fayetteville with more favorable trends, it's safe for Democrats in 2022. They pick it up in 2022, winning 56-43.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 1 seat
Republicans lose 1 seat

[OBD]

Missouri


While Show-Me State Democrats were limited by Missouri's strong Republican lean, they ultimately managed to extract three districts (plus a competitive swing district) for themselves, shoring up St. Louis while drawing an unfortunately-shaped gerrymander in the West to create two target districts in the Kansas City area. Of the Republican incumbents, Rep. Billy Long gets the short stick and is drawn into the swingy 6th district, but could choose to mount a primary challenge to Vicky Hartzler in the 4th.

2nd District: The suburban St. Louis district moves from Trump+11 to Clinton+14, moving from a Likely R seat to a Likely D one, while retaining a significant pro-Democratic trend. In 2022, a local Democrat runs and easily wins by a 57-42 margin.

5th District: The Kansas City-based district moves somewhat rightward to allow for a swingy 6th District, but is still Clinton +10. Whether Cleaver runs or is primaried, this district elects a Democrat in 2022, by a slightly thinner 55-44 margin.

6th District: A snake district linking Springfield, Columbia, Jefferson City, and St. Louis suburbs, this was a Trump +6 district that Biden likely came close in or won in 2020. The towns it picks up are all trending Democratic at varying clips, but this seat is more wave insurance than a solid gerrymandered seat. In 2022, a Democrat (perhaps Jason Kander) makes it close, but Rep. Billy Long or another GOPer holds the seat 52-47.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 1 seat
Republicans lose 1 seat

[OBD]

Iowa


Iowa's counties-whole rules make a traditional baconmander impossible, but Iowa Democrats can still get a nice map that locks in a 2-2 in a state trending fast away from them. Luckily for them, this map doesn't have a lot of population deviation and also allows them to pack in the Democratic bases of East Iowa into one cohesive district.

1st District: While the Trump+19 (2016) 1st is solidly Republican, it's unclear who actually runs here - Representatives Ashley Hinson and Marianne Miller-Meeks are likely forced into a primary battle here. Significant portions of both candidates's bases lie within this district, so this primary would be highly competitive. That said, one of the two could seek Grassley's vacating Senate seat to avoid this.

2nd District: The new 2nd District voted for Clinton by low double digits in 2016, and Biden likely matches or narrowly exceeds that margin. Fmr. Rep. Abby Finkenauer could run here, but would have to carpetbag (her hometown of Dubuque lies outside of the 2nd District). Regardless, despite the potential for future Republican trends here, a Democrat easily picks up this seat in 2022 54-45.

3rd District: This Des Moines area district has the most favorable trends for Democrats of all the Iowa districts, and was Clinton+5 to start with. Axne should be fairly secure here, and wins 53-46 as an entrenched incumbent in 2022.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 1 seat
Republicans lose 1 seat

[Alcibiades]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

"Proportionally partisan" =/= fair. Proportionality isn't and shouldn't be the goal of redistricting.

Fair seat results should be proportional, which is why I think it is almost impossible for any FPTP map to be fair.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

"Proportionally partisan" =/= fair. Proportionality isn't and shouldn't be the goal of redistricting.

Fair seat results should be proportional, which is why I think it is almost impossible for any FPTP map to be fair.

I mean, I agree, but applications of FPP should be based on standards that are appropriate to FPP and not based on standards it by nature cannot meet.

[lfromnj]

^ Especially in FPTP for districts with 10 years. Coalitions can change, A proportional/"fair"Ohio map  might actually have ended up with only 3 D seats in 2020. Should there be mid-decade redistricting if for some reason a map gets too unproportional?

[OBD]

Yeah partisanship should not be a consideration in fair maps. It sucks for Democrats that geography is so bad for them in a lot of states, but the closest thing to fair representation is if all districts are compact and represent clear COIs.

[OBD]

Minnesota



And behold, an example of geography royally screwing Dems! This Minnesota map had 5 Trump districts in 2016, and while this wasn't the case in 2020 only two districts voted left of the state (the rapidly leftward-trending 3rd might have came close to the state though). Obviously, Collin Peterson's old district gets cut, so Republicans will have to play incumbent shuffle in the outer districts. Meanwhile, I tried to keep the Twin Cities areas with minimal county splits.

1st District: Redistricting pushes Governor Tim Walz's district north and west, and it becomes even more solidly Republican. Rep. Jim Hagedorn will not have trouble winning in this district.

2nd District: Angie Craig's district moves 1 point right by expanding away from Minneapolis-St. Paul, but also takes in areas with trends less favorable to Democrats. As a result, while it voted Biden in 2020, it's still fertile ground for a strong Republican candidate. And in 2022, a Republican narrowly picks up this seat in a closely contested race, winning by below a percentage point in a heartbreak for MN Democrats.

3rd District: Dean Phillips's district shifts dramatically right, from Clinton+9 to Trump by less than 1 point. But, it also includes areas rapidly trending left, and Biden won here by near double digits. Resultantly, Phillips is able to barely hold on in 2022, turning back a strong Republican challenge 51-48. 

7th District: This merger of the old 7th and 8th districts has strong ancestral Democrat roots, and actually is marginally leftward of the old 8th district. However, it still voted Trump by 13 in 2016 (against Trump+16 for the old 8th), and it's unlikely these areas come back for the Democrats. Whichever Republican ends up running here wins easily, 59-40.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats lose 1 seat

[OBD]

Wisconsin



Wisconsin is another state with atrocious political geography for Democrats - while the new map cleans up the current R gerry, the partisan balance it produces is still equally unfavorable for WI Democrats. While the 1st and 3rd districts move leftward, the 1st remains an unlikely flip and the 3rd remains a difficult hold. As the districts remain very similar to their current iterations, only one incumbent gets drawn out of their distirct.

1st District: Rep. Brian Steil is technically drawn out of this seat, but he probably runs here regardless. His seat also gets more unfavorable, losing most of WOW in exchange for Milwaukee suburbs and moving to Trump+7. However, trends here, especially in Kenosha and Racine, remain unfavorable, and Steil wins re-election 54-45.

3rd District: With this district becoming increasingly unfavorable for Democrats, Rep. Ron Kind retires to run for Senate, leaving an open seat battle here. While this iteration of the 3rd is about one point left of the current one, it's not enough to allow Democrats to hold it in 2022. A local Republican wins here, defeating Kind's successor Democrat 52-47.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Republicans gain 1 seat
Democrats lose 1 seat

[SevenEleven]

Kind would not lose that district. I think you should count it as D. Kind running for Senate is unlikely.

[EastAnglianLefty]

That WI-1 is distinctly suboptimal. Why not put Ozaukee County into WI-4, allowing WI-1 to take more of Milwaukee County  and lose Republican areas in the west?

If you gave those areas to WI-2, that would also let WI-3 take outlying parts of Dane to pad the margins, and whilst you're at it you might as well swap areas between 6 and 8 to create a district centred on Green Bay.

[OBD]

Kind would not lose that district. I think you should count it as D. Kind running for Senate is unlikely.

The issue for me is that Kind won this district by 2.6 in 2020, and with how trends are going here plus it being a Biden midterm I saw a Republican pickup as more likely.

That WI-1 is distinctly suboptimal. Why not put Ozaukee County into WI-4, allowing WI-1 to take more of Milwaukee County  and lose Republican areas in the west?

If you gave those areas to WI-2, that would also let WI-3 take outlying parts of Dane to pad the margins, and whilst you're at it you might as well swap areas between 6 and 8 to create a district centred on Green Bay.

I drew this map with as little partisan motivation as possible - while as a Democrat I'd like to do what you said, it wouldn't be fair (in a fair map, WI-4 would be contained within a county). Also, my reason for the 6-8 alignment was a pursuit of compactness.

[lfromnj]

Yeah you can get a very logical district 8 based in Green Bay and the Fox River Valley but that WI06 is quite bad.Its not a particularly partisan decision one has to make either way although keeping the Fox River Valley whole means Baldwin barely wins the district in 2018 but it still should be pretty safe for any Republican.

[lfromnj]

^ Especially in FPTP for districts with 10 years. Coalitions can change, A proportional/"fair"Ohio map  might actually have ended up with only 3 D seats in 2020. Should there be mid-decade redistricting if for some reason a map gets too unproportional?

Also one more thing, although we are reaching an era of greater polarization between presidential/house numbers some people still aren't voting for a party to represent their district. They are voting for an individual to represent them in congress. Its why Jared Golden is a representative and also why Don Bacon is one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah you can get a very logical district 8 based in Green Bay and the Fox River Valley but that WI06 is quite bad.Its not a particularly partisan decision one has to make either way although keeping the Fox River Valley whole means Baldwin barely wins the district in 2018 but it still should be pretty safe for any Republican.

I tried to have a logical district 8 but it results almost invariably with Dane being split. Reason being, Sheboygan and the rural Lake Michigan coast can only really be paired with WOW, and unless the 4th goes anywhere, you end up with 100k-150k from Waukesha being thrown in, which in turn forces a Dane split as CDs rotate.

[OBD]

College anxiety has struck again, so I'm bringing this back.
Illinois



Chicago Inset



Republicans are now at the helm in Illinois, and they go for broke in this solidly Democratic state. However, they fall just short of drawing in a congressional delegation majority, and also have 6 somewhat competitive seats to factor into their calculus. A combination of worsening suburban performances and multiple Democratic cities scattered across the state make this gerrymander difficult, but it remains fairly solid barring a D wave year.

3rd District: Marie Newman is drawn into a Trump+12 district, that despite trending somewhat left is a tough battle to win. In a shock move, former Rep. Dan Lipinski launches a primary challenge for the seat, defeating Newman 54-42 with the help of rural voters. He is opposed by Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who narrowly wins a bruising Republican primary in this suburban-rural district . In a marquee battle with a 'conservative' third-party write-in, Kinzinger edges out Lipinski 45-44, a technical pickup for Republicans.

6th District: The new 6th district is Trump+10, stretching from Lake Michigan to the Mississippi River rurals. Believing her chances to be best here, Rep. Cheri Bustos runs here instead of the 17th (where she would be met by Rep. Darin Lahood). However, the partisanship of this seat is simply too much for her to overcome. The prominent Democrat falls hard, losing 53-46.

9th District: Incumbent Jan Schakowsky gets unlucky and is effectively forced to retire. On the other hand, Rep. Sean Casten of the 6th district lucks out and gets a solidly Democratic district all to himself. He easily holds this seat 59-41.

12th District: The new Trump+14 12th district remains the domain of Mike Bost, moving marginally leftward. However, this is nowhere near enough to unseat the entrenched Bost, who romps over a unsupported Democratic challenger.

13th District: Rodney Davis is technically drawn out of this seat, but runs here anyway. This Trump+22 seat is not competitive, though - Davis is compensated for multiple competitive elections in the past with an easy win here.

14th District: The new 14th district includes Rockford and some northern Illinois rural areas - making it far out of Rep. Lauren Underwood's depth. While she carpetbags here and attempts to defend her seat, there is far too much unfamiliar territory for her to even scrap victory. She falls in this Trump+11 district easily, losing 54-45.

16th District: This open seat stretches from the Chicago suburbs and Joliet to southern Illinois, encasing a long conservative tail. Accordingly, it's Trump+12. An open seat, a Republican manages to win easily regardless, 54-45.

17th District: 18th District representative Darin Lahood runs in this Peoria-Quad Cities district. A Trump+14 district, it's less Democratic then holding multiple western Illinois towns would make it look on paper, and LaHood cruises to a fairly easy re-election here.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Republicans gain 3 seats (+IL-03, IL-06, IL-14, IL-17, -IL-18)
Democrats lose 4 seats (-IL-03, IL-06, IL-14, IL-17)

[OBD]

Indiana



Indiana is the smaller inverse of Illinois - Democrats are able to go on the offensive with the redistricting pen, but must also settle for somewhat marginal seats to get to their desired delegation composition. And indeed, a 4-5 map is possible for them, but is also a somewhat risky proposition (not to mention an atrocity of a map).

1st District: Now stretching from Gary to Lafayette and Terre Haute, the new 1st District moves slightly rightward. However, Rep. Frank Mrvan is still fairly safe in the relatively neutral 2022. He wins re-election in this Clinton+13 seat 54-45.

2nd District: Rep. Jackie Walorski is thrown into an absurd Clinton+6 district looping around Eastern Indiana to take in South Bend, Fort Wayne, and multiple smaller towns. Secretary Pete Buttigieg seriously considers running here, but ultimately decides against it. Another South Bend Democrat, though, takes the opportunity and wins this D-trending seat 51-47.

5th District: To add insult to injury, Rep. Victoria Spartz is drawn out of her now-Clinton+8 district. She still runs here to avoid Rep. Andre Carson, but a Democrat wins this Bloomington-Indianapolis suburbs seat 52-46.

7th District: In a district that's still home to a significant African-American population, but is now just Clinton+11, Rep. Andre Carson is forced into a somewhat competitive race. However, he is aided by favorable trends (albeit less than in the 5th district). He emerges victorious 57-42 as Republicans choose to not seriously contest his seat.

9th District: This Ohio River district could have been competitive at one point - but is now safely Republican. That said, Rep's Larry Bucshon and Trey Hollingsworth are forced into an Evansville vs. Louisville suburbs primary battle, which proves interesting. With the new 9th a fairly even mix between Bucshon and Hollingsworth's old districts, this primary is close - but Bucshon narrowly emerged victorious. He wins the general election in a romp, though.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 2 seats (+IN-02, IN-05)
Republicans lose 2 seats (-IN-02, IN-05)

[OBD]

Michigan



Michigan, as a state with divided government, gets a commission map. On this map, Oakland and Macomb both get their own districts, the Lansing area is united, and Saginaw and Flint are kept together. However, with Detroit being completely revamped and Michigan as a whole losing a seat, incumbents across the state are thrown into different districts, often with fellow incumbents.

3rd District: This Trump+10 district contracts into Grand Rapids, taking in all of Kent County. Interestingly, it maintains a similar 2016 partisanship relative to its previous iteration, while moving from R+6 to R+8 in PVI. Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted to convict Trump, faces a competitive primary - but regardless of who comes out on top, the GOP holds this seat by a 53-46 margin.

4th District: A merge between the only 2nd and 6th districts, Rep.'s Huizenga and Upton are doublebunked here. However, this district is safer than Upton's marginally competitive old seat, and Huizenga (winning the primary on pro-Trump sentiment) defeats a Democrat 56-43 here.

5th District: This longtime Republican target moves 4 points rightward, voting for Trump by a little under a point. However, it trades increasingly Republican areas in and north of Bay City for Dem-trending outer suburbs (not to mention Elissa Slotkin's hometown). Kildee is unopposed by Democrats here, though, and manages to neatly thread the line in this swing district to turn back a strong GOP challenge 50-47.

6th District: Slotkin moves over the county line to the new 6th district, which actually moves leftward to Trump+5 after unifying the Lansing area with suburban-exurban Livingston County. Aided by favorable trends, Slotkin overcomes a vigorous Republican challenge to win by a fairly comfortable 52-46 margin.

7th District: Rep. Tim Walberg is placed in the hot seat here - his seat moves left to Trump+10 after taking in Kalamazoo. However, this is still a fairly conservative seat, and Democrats have far more pressing targets in Michigan. Walberg cruises to a 55-44 re-election.

9th District: Rep.'s Andy Levin and Haley Stevens are double-bunked here (neither wants to run in the now Republican 10th or the solidly Republican 8th). However, this seat is now solidly Democratic, so whoever wins the two-Representative primary cruises to an easy win in the general.

10th District: This district, taking in Macomb County, is now Trump+8 - as an open seat, Republicans entered the cycle favored here. And despite an energetic Democratic defense attempt, the GOP picks up this seat (a technical gain) by a slightly reduced 52-47 margin.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Republicans have no net change (+MI-08, -MI-06)
Democrats lose 1 seat (+MI-06, -MI-08, MI-14)

 

[OBD]

Ohio



Democrats here are hamstrung by Ohio's strict redistricting guidelines - this map attempts to minimize county splits, keep the big cities whole and include one whole county in each district or else limit the district to one county. I THINK this map is compliant but lfromnj's probably going to come in here and debunk it or something.

1st District: The new 1st District sheds the most Republican parts of Hamilton County, contracting to Cincy and surrounding purplish suburbs. This district moves to Clinton+14, and further Democratic trends put this functionally out of reach for Republicans. A Democrat romps to a 58-40 victory over Rep. Steve Chabot.

9th District: Rep. Marcy Kaptur's district moves significantly to the right as it becomes a mostly whole-county district while retaining its "Snake-By-The-Lake" character. It was Clinton+10 in 2016, and is likely around Biden+7-9 in 2020. Resultantly, this seat becomes a fringe target for Ohio Republicans in 2022, but Kaptur ultimately emerges victorious 54-44.

10th District: The 10th District moves slightly left to Trump+6 after taking in Springfield (which given Clark County's rightward shift in 2020 might not have been the smartest move). However, this is still a fairly Republican district, and Rep. Mike Turner holds on easily, 54-45.

12th District: Contracting into Columbus, the new 12th District is just Trump+3 in 2016, and presumably votes for Biden in 2020. Rep. Steve Stivers likely runs here, with Balderson well into the 6th District - however, Democrats finally manage to pick up this seat 50-49 with the assistance of suburban trends.

13th District: Drawn in a desparate attempt to save Tim Ryan, this new seat stretches from outer Cleveland to Youngstown while also including all of Portage County. While it moves significantly rightward on PVI, it actually moves leftward in 2016 relative to Ryan's old district - indicating that anti-Democratic trends are moving slower here. This seat likely votes Biden +6-9 in 2020, which is enough to save Ryan in 2022 - he wins 52-44 against a stiff challenge from Rep. Anthony Gonzalez.

15th District: The new 15th is Ohio Dems's best shot at securing another Cleveland-area seat, taking in Akron and the bluer parts of Canton as well as Carroll County for redistricting compliance. It votes for Clinton by just 0.7 percentage points, and as it takes in the more Republican-shifting parts of Canton, has a decent chance of flipping for Trump in 2022. Regardless, this is a marquee matchup in 2022 (and likely an open-seat race as well, with no incumbents in the general area), and Republicans leverage their out-of-government status and Ohio's Republican trend to pick up the seat 50-48 in a nail-biter.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 2 seats (+OH-01, OH-12)
Republicans lose 3 seats (-OH-01, OH-12, OH-16)

[Stuart98]

Pretty suboptimal Ohio map: my fair map is both more compact and a little friendlier to Democrats. Still need to update it to 2019 population estimates though.

[OBD]

Pretty suboptimal Ohio map: my fair map is both more compact and a little friendlier to Democrats. Still need to update it to 2019 population estimates though.

Can I see it? Not sure how else you can squeeze another Dem oppurtunity seat in NE Ohio but I'm all ears.

[Stuart98]

Pretty suboptimal Ohio map: my fair map is both more compact and a little friendlier to Democrats. Still need to update it to 2019 population estimates though.

Can I see it? Not sure how else you can squeeze another Dem oppurtunity seat in NE Ohio but I'm all ears.

I'll post it once I get home from work.

[Stuart98]

Hmm, I misremembered how blue my 9th was. My Columbus area is better and my 10th is a little better given trends but my northern Ohio probably costs Dems a seat compared to your map given your assumptions about how the midterms play out.