The Reverse Gerrymandering Project

[OBD]

Hey guys. I need something to do while I'm waiting for my college decision to come in, so I'm gonna do a reverse redistricting project. Basically, this means that the minority party in every state without a commission will be drawing the maps.

I'll be using this image as a guide - in the blue, Democratic-controlled states, I'll be drawing Republican gerrymanders, while the red, Republican-controlled states will get D gerrymanders. Gray states will get fair maps. New York has since shifted to Democratic control, so it will get a Republican gerrymander. After I draw maps, I'll do an analysis of them for the 2022 elections, in a neutral-tilt-R environment.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=3a170fda1cbd4a5d87ed9d19777880c7 - I'll use the Esri projections for reappointment numbers.

[OBD]

Washington



Seattle Inset


Due to having implemented a commission, Washington Dems are safe from a Republican gerrymander - this fair map is fairly similar to Washington's 2010 map - though with several key differences. The 8th District's Cascades crossing is eliminated, the 3rd district flips Lewis County for southern Yakima County, and the two Seattle districts are rotated to give the minority member (Pramila Jayapal) an actual minority-majority seat. Overall, it's a nice, compact map, though one that's a little fussy for incumbents.

1st District: Rep. Suzan DelBene gets drawn into the Seattle white Dems district with longtime Rep. Adam Smith, as her old district picks up some of the 2nd's old territory (allowing it to contract into one county). That said, DelBene probably packs her bags and moves to nearby Redmond, and should hold this still-Titanium D district (which is 3 points left of the old iteration in 2016) with ease.

3rd District: Republican Rep. Herrera-Beutler's district gets shifted significantly left due to trading ruby-red Lewis County for swingier, majority-Hispanic areas in Yakima County. It was just Trump+3 in 2016, and there's a decent chance it flipped to Biden in 2020 (though Cowlitz County might have prevented that outcome). In 2022, though, Beutler easily holds this seat 54-46, maintaining her crossover appeal.

4th and 5th District: The 4th is solidly Republican, but aging Rep. Dan Newhouse's hometown of Sunnyside gets thrown into the 3rd district. If he retires, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers could run for the seat, with her Colville home now in the 4th. Regardless, both seats are easy holds for the GOP - while an open 5th District race could be competitive - the 5th was only Trump +10 in 2016, a 3-point shift left - it wouldn't flip in a non-wave environment.

8th District: Rep. Kim Schrier gets a big break as her district contracts west of the Cascades - her new district voted Clinton+10 in 2016, and should be secure for the decade to come.

10th District: Conversely, the Olympia-based 10th district gets considerably more competitive, exchanging swingy outer Tacoma suburbs for Republican bastion Lewis County, and moving from a solid Clinton +12 to a less secure Clinton +6. In 2022, Rep. Marilyn Strickland would win re-election by a comparatively thin 54-46 margin, due to the general incompetence of the PNW GOP.

Change in Delegation from 2020: NONE

[OBD]

Oregon



With the GOP now operating the levers for Oregon redistricting, expectations from Oregon Republicans were high - however, due to Biden's 16-point here, a 4-2 Republican map was never in the cards. Instead, this 3-3 map was drawn, targeting both the new 6th District and longtime Rep. DeFazio's seat.

4th District: This district, which moves from even to Trump +6.6, was designed to take out Rep. DeFazio, taking in the reddest parts of Jackson County while shedding Corvallis and the swingy Lane County coast. As DeFazio won by just 5 in 2020, this district probably does him in in a more R-favorable 2022. Alek Skarlatos is headed to Washington.

5th District: This district, a mix of Beaverton, Tigard, suburban Clackamas, and West Portland, is solidly Democratic - but current Rep. Kurt Schrader (Oregon's sole Blue Dog) is drawn out, and the district is probably too progressive to elect him even if he carpetbagged. Maybe 2020 primary loser Mark Gamba runs?

6th District: This new district, which covers the Western Oregon conservative areas, is solidly Republican - Trump won here by 15 in 2016, and probably by around 8-10 points in 2020. Losing Monmouth and Salem to the 1st District made it significantly more Republican. In 2022, this is an easy Republican layup - perhaps former State Sen. Kim Thatcher wins here by a 58-42 margin.

Change in Delegation from 2020:
Republicans gain 2 seats.
Democrats lose 1 seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good idea!

[OBD]

Nevada



Las Vegas Inset



Similarly to Oregon, state geography limits what Nevada Republicans to do - even with a maximized Democratic sink, the remaining territory is only Trump +7 and will thus result in at least 1 unsafe district. So, the Nevada GOP draws a map that will basically guarantee them 2 seats while ceding another Las Vegas seat to the Democrats. The 2nd District, the sole current seat held by a Republican, doesn't change partisanship, but changes alignment to allow more Republican areas to get placed into the 4th. The 4th, while more Republican than the 2nd, has less favorable trends due to containing more Vegas suburbs.

3rd District: Neither Rep. Lee nor Rep. Horsford would like to face election in the Trump+15 4th District, so there would probably be a primary battle here. While Horsford's more progressive credentials would help him in this deep-blue Clinton +17 district, his scandals, and the fact that the 3rd includes more of Lee's base than his would likely cripple him.

4th District: This district will succeed the 2nd as the most Republican in the state, but was bluer than the 2nd in the 2018 Senate election. While suburban trends could eventually draw this district closer, it's secure enough in 2022 for a Danny Tarkanian type to pick it up.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Republicans gain 1 seat
Democrats lose 1 seat

[OBD]

Small Western States

Hawai'i


It's basically impossible for Republicans to do much here - Hawai'i is too uniformly Democratic. Ultimately, they can draw a district that is only Clinton+25 (and probably Biden ~20), but there's really no point.

Idaho


Idaho's another state where, quite frankly, there's not much to do - while reuniting Boise makes the 1st District slightly more Democratic, it's still not close enough for it to matter, even in a Democratic wave year. Interestingly, this potential commission map has road connections AND doesn't split counties.

Montana


Montana could have been interesting in another age - the new 1st District - which was Trump +13 in 2016 - could have been competitive in 2018. However, with Montana Democrats getting shellacked in 2020, it's hard to foresee them bouncing back here (though they would likely pull the 1st to within single digits). Republicans would hold both seats (including a technical pickup) here.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Republicans gain 1 seat

[OBD]

Utah


Not a lot of untainted data exists for Utah - the 2012 and 2016 results were both affected by external factors, and thus aren't good reflectors of the partisanship of the state. Thus, Utah Democrats would likely play it safe - two plurality Clinton +~4 districts are possible but with all but two counties swinging to back to Trump in 2020 neither would be a sure bet (especially given Utah's unpredictability). The 4th district in this map - while Utah's sole Democratic district - is solid - it voted for Obama by 14 points in 2008 and gave Clinton a majority of the vote.

1st/2nd/3rd Districts While all these districts are Safe, incumbent considerations make them interesting. Rob Bishop and Chris Stewart get double-bunked in the 1st under this map, as do John Curtis and Burgess Owens in the 3rd. Stewart would likely carpetbag to the 2nd, but Curtis and Owens would likely end up in a contentious primary battle (unless Owens chose to move to the 2nd or 4th).

4th District: With a 2012-2016 PVI of D+5, the 4th is well to the left of its predecessor. Fmr. Rep. Ben McAdams would make a triumphant return in 2022, winning 58-42 over whoever the Republicans put up.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 1 seat
Republicans lose 1 seat

[OBD]

Arizona



Phoenix Inset


Arizona gains a seat in the 2020 Census - but this commission-drawn map is similar to Washington in that it's a least-change map. The new district surfaces in Maricopa County, consisting of Scottsdale and northern Phoenix burbs.

1st District: Rep. O'Halleran's district becomes a little neater, losing its portion of Pima County and Southern Maricopa, while taking in all of Gila County. Accordingly, it shifts around 2 points right. With outstate not trending as strongly to Democrats, and with O'Halleran only winning by 3 in 2020, the GOP would successfully unseat him in 2022 by a 52-48 margin, a major pickup.

2nd District: This district, a mix of Tucson and rurals, shifts marginally rightward - Clinton only won here by 3. While Rep. Kirkpatrick is on friendlier ground, her seat is still a prime GOP target. However, suburban trends and the relative neutrality of 2022 mean that Democrats can hold this seat by a thin 51-49 margin, perhaps against now-perennial candidate Martha McSally.

6th District: The new 6th District is solidly Democratic, voting for Clinton by 14 points in 2016 and surely by more in 2020. 9th District Rep. Greg Stanton probably moves here, and wins by a robust margin in 2022.

8th District: Rep. Lesko's new seat contracts into Phoenix, a change that moves the seat from a solid Trump+21 to a far less secure Trump+9 in 2016. Sinema came close here in 2018, losing by a mere 1-point margin. While Biden likely came close or won here in 2020, the unfavorablity of the 2022 environment ultimately puts this seat just out of reach for Democrats. Lesko wins re-election 52-48, perhaps against Hiral Tiperneni, but would be extremely vulnerable in 2024.

9th District: This seat could also be called the "new" seat - it consists of all of Tempe and Chandler, plus western Mesa. It was Clinton+6 in 2016, and voted for Sinema by a robust 15-point margin in 2018. Thus, a local Democrat picks up this open seat in 2022, albeit by a narrower-than expected 54-46 margin.

10th District: A successor seat to the old 6th (that also takes portions of the old 8th), Rep. Schweikert's new district is the converse to Lesko's - moving significantly rightward. Moving from Trump+10 to Trump+17 (2016 numbers), Trump probably won this North Phoenix district by around 9-10 in 2020. While it might be competitive late-decade, Schweikert should win easily here, a respite from the close 2020 race he endured.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Republicans gain 1 seat (+AZ-01, +AZ-10, -AZ-06)
Democrats lose 0 seats (+AZ-06, -AZ-01)

[Seattle]

Keep Seattle whole, goddamnit!

-Seattle

[OBD]

New Mexico


With trends stagnating in their state, the New Mexico GOP decides to roll the dice and try for a 2-1. Both of their gerrymandered districts voted for McCain in 2008, and went for Trump in 2016 by 9 points (2nd) and 10 points (3rd). The Democratic pack gave Clinton 66% of the vote and Lujan Grisham an eye-popping 76%.

1st District: Deb Haaland and Teresa Leger Fernandez get double-bunked in this extreme Democratic pack. Both have progressive credentials, though Haaland likely has a marginal advantage due to a larger base in Albuquerque. That said, a primary battle here would be averted if Haaland received an appointment to the Biden cabinet.

2nd District: This district includes conservative areas in southern New Mexico, and a snake to deep-red Broomfield. A local Republican likely wins this open seat battle by a 54-46 margin.

3rd District: GOP Rep. Harrell is moved to this district, which stretches from Las Cruces to the Albuquerque burbs. While this is the more Republican of the two GOP districts (and is more Republican than Harrell's current district), it has less favorable trends. Harrell emerges victorious in 2022 by a 56-44 margin.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Republicans gain 1 seat
Democrats lose 1 seat

[Stuart98]

Re: Utah, there's actually no requirement that reps live in the district they represent; McAdams didn't, Chaffetz didn't while he was in UT-03, Owens doesn't right now. Bishop actually retired this year and his replacement, Blake Moore⁠—you guessed it⁠— doesn't live in UT-01: He lives in SLC in the current UT-02, just south of the University of Utah (DRA labels the precinct as 2604).

I've been optimizing based on 2018 senate for Utah:

Both districts were around Romney+9, R+7 PVI, ~Clinton+4 in 2016, all representative-elects live in their district.

[OBD]

Re: Utah, there's actually no requirement that reps live in the district they represent; McAdams didn't, Chaffetz didn't while he was in UT-03, Owens doesn't right now. Bishop actually retired this year and his replacement, Blake Moore⁠—you guessed it⁠— doesn't live in UT-01: He lives in SLC in the current UT-02, just south of the University of Utah (DRA labels the precinct as 2604).

I've been optimizing based on 2018 senate for Utah:

Both districts were around Romney+9, R+7 PVI, ~Clinton+4 in 2016, all representative-elects live in their district.

Thanks for this! Yeah, that would definitely reduce the need for contested primaries, though the 4 GOP reps would still need to play musical chairs with the 3 remaining seats. The issue from my POV is that I don't think Utah Dems would see two Clinton+4 seats as secure - especially given how voliate Utah has been lately. Best to just take the one Safe district.

[OBD]

Colorado



Denver Inset


Colorado gains an 8th district in the 2020 census. This fair map prioritizes neat lines over city lines, but cities like Aurora and locales like Jefferson County are still kept basically whole. Accordingly, the partisanship of some districts shift - the 3rd and 6th move to Safe R and Safe D respectively, while the 7th moves back towards competitiveness.

3rd District: Rep. Boebert's new district shifts 1.5 points right from the old iteration in 2016, losing Pueblo while picking up mountain regions of varying partisanship. While Colorado's massive swing closes to district to around Trump +6, it's unlikely Boebert would get unseated in a less favorable year for Dems, unless she said something really controversial. She wins 55-45.

7th District: Ed Perlmutter's district shifts outward and rightward, replacing the 6th as the more competitive suburban district. It voted roughly in line with the state in 2016, but Jefferson County's hard-left trend probably put it in the Biden+16 range in 2020. Assuming Perlmutter runs again, he cruises by here, winning 57-43 in 2022.

8th District: Colorado's newest district is also it's most competitive. Consisting of south Denver suburbs, it voted for Trump by 4 but swung hard to the left in 2020 along with the rest of the state, likely ending up around Biden+7. In 2022, this district was a major battleground, but the Democrat wins 50-49 thanks to favorable trends and a stronger state party.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 1 seat

[OBD]

Great Plains

The Great Plains produces a triad of Democratic gerrymanders - Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma all get redistricted by Democrats. This results in some fairly grotesque districts to maximize Democratic potential, with snakes linking blue islands across deep-red rural 'seas'.

Nebraska


Nebraska-Summary: While the 3rd district remains intact, Rep. Fortenberry (NE-1) and Rep. Bacon (NE-2) are double-bunked in the new 1st (Fortenberry is technically drawn into the 2nd, but wouldn't run there). While the new 1st is out of reach for Democrats, there's likely be a contentious primary showdown here. With seniority, Fortenberry likely has a small edge.

Nebraska-2nd: This new Nebraska 2nd is Clinton+13, and would have voted Biden by even more. Even #strongcandidate Don Bacon would have a hard time winning here, and it would basically be a question if an Ashford Democrat (moderate) or an Eastman Democrat (progressive) won the primary. Whoever comes out would win with a vote % in the high 50s.

Kansas


Kansas-Summary: Rep.'s Roger Marshall and Jake LaTurner both keep their districts - but Rep. Ron Estes is left stranded in the state's bluest district. He likely carpetbags to the new 4th and attempts to primary LaTurner - a race that could go either way, as the new 4th contains turf from both Estes's and LaTurner's old districts.

Kansas-2nd: This new district, which includes the Democratic islands of Wichita, Junction City, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and part of Kansas City, is Clinton+10, and has hovered around that number since the 2008 election. Biden likely expanded on this margin, and a generic Democrat (possibly failed 2018/2020 candidates Paul Davis or Michelle De La Isla) try their hand and win here 53-46.

Kansas-3rd: This district is slightly more Republican than its predecessor - exchanging some of deep-blue Kansas City for swingy outer Lawrence and Topeka - but is trending Democratic at an equally rapid clip, voting for Biden by around 8-9. Rep. Sharice Davids, thus, is likely Safe in 2022, and would win 54-45.

Oklahoma


Oklahoma-Summary: Non-Bice incumbents actually all end up in individual districts without double-bunking - while the 1st was won narrowly by Democrat Drew Edmondson in 2018, it likely voted Trump by 17-20, and is an extreme reach seat for Democrats.

Oklahoma-5th: Oklahoma's new 5th districts aims to maximize Democratic potential in the OKC area, rather than minimize it - accordingly, it gets shifted from Trump +14 in 2016 to Clinton +1, and likely votes Biden by near-double digits. The district unites Oklahoma City with the swingy, D-trending college towns of Norman and Stillwater. Ousted Rep. Kendra Horn likely makes a comeback here in 2022, defeating Stephanie Bice 53-46 in a rematch.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 3 seats (NE-02, KS-02, OK-05)
Republicans lose 3 seats (NE-02, KS-02, OK-05)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kudos for that creative 5th district. I would not have expected a Clinton district to be possible without completely grotesque Rorsach blot lines.

[OBD]

Texas (maps)



San Antonio-Austin inset


Houston inset


DFW inset


Speaking of Rorsach blot lines...

The Texas Democratic Party goes to town on this map, but actually plays it kind of safe due to fear of suburban snapback in 2022. Drawing at least 2-3 more Biden districts in DFW, Houston, and Austin is theoretically possible, but inadvisable (especially given wildly differing trends in large urban areas like Harris County).

Analysis will be posted later.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

[OBD]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

Meh, the R gerry=fair map thing is probably a byproduct of how Democratic California is, not unfair redistricting.

[SevenEleven]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

You could easily draw an R majority delegation using 2004/2008 numbers at the time the new map had started.

[OBD]

Texas (analysis)

1st District: Incumbent Rep. Louie Gohmert is technically drawn out of the district, but should win it easily regardless.

2nd District: The 2nd district is radically changed, taking in swingier areas inside of the Sam Houston Beltway while retaining a Republican chunk near Spring. Voting Trump by just 1 point in 2016, it moves 8 points leftward from the current iteration. Despite a leftward trend, Rep. Dan Crenshaw wins re-election by a comfortable 53-46 margin - this seat was ultimately the least likely to flip in Houston, and with a strong incumbent in a tilt-R year it was out of reach for Dems.

3rd District: The new 3rd district shifts 17 points left (for 2016 results) to Clinton +3, and as 2020's results in McKinney County show, it's trending left at a rapid clip. Rep. Van Taylor thus gets thrown into a highly unfavorable district. But, he puts up a valiant fight, and aided aided by some suburban snapback, he successfully turns back a Democratic challenger 50-49 in a competitive race. However, as the decade goes on, Republican prospects in this seat dim.

4th District: Whoever won this seat in 2020 probably keeps it.

5th District: This leftovers district could be the landing point of a multitude of representatives fleeing unfavorable districts. Pete Sessions, Michael McCaul, and John Carter could all plausibly run here, though Sessions is probably the most natural pick. Regardless, this seat is an obvious Republican hold.

6th District: Republican Ron Wright is thrown into a far less favorable Arlington district trending left at a reasonable clip (one that also voted for Clinton by 5), and assuming trends don't reverse here it's a likely Democratic pickup in 2022. Despite some suburbanites returning to the GOP, the fundamentals for Democrats here are good enough for their candidate to defeat Wright 52-47.

7th District: The new 7th district moves eastward, taking in D-leaning and swingy areas in Brazoria County. It moves left to Clinton+6, which allows Rep. Lizzie Fletcher to win fairly comfortably in 2022 (54-45 margin).

8th District: This solidly Republican wraparound district double-bunks Rep.'s Randy Weber and Kevin Brady, and 22nd District Rep. Troy Nehls could also run here. It's likely at least one of these Representatives would choose to retire rather than endure a threeway primary battle, though. Regardless, this district is absolutely not flipping.

9th District: This district, with a 61% Hispanic population, is likely where Rep. Sylvia Garcia runs. While 2020 trends weren't kind to urban Democrats, it's very probable Garcia wins again in this Clinton+16 seat, probably by a 60-39ish margin.

10th District: This Clinton+18, Austin-based district is the closest thing to a layup pickup there is for Democrats. A local Dem wins this seat by a dominant 61-38 margin in a lightly contested race.

11th District: New Rep. August Pfluger is the most natural pick for this district, though Rep. Chip Roy could also run here off a base in the Hill Country. It's a safe GOP hold regardless.

12th District: Rep. Kay Granger is the most natural pick for this safely Republican seat, which shifts northward.

13th District: Mac Thornberry easily holds down this solidly Republican Panhandle seat.

14th District: Rep. Al Green gets a new VRA seat stretching from inner Houston to Galveston, Port Arthur, and other Democratic enclaves. He should win easily here in 2022, a technical gain for Democrats.

15th District: After a 2020 scare, the RGV Hispanic seats get shored up. Gonazlez's seat moves from D+7 to D+11, and is probably safe in 2022 with a Democratic rebound in this region.

16th District: El Paso seat. 'Nuff said, Veronica Escobar holds this easily.

17th District: Dallas Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson ends up in this ruthless VRA seat that stretches from Waco to Longview. Regardless, it's 46% Black by VAP and solidly Democratic.

18th District: Houston's other AA VRA seat is unpacked a little, but remains solidly Democratic.

19th District: Lubbock Republican Jodey Arrington easily wins re-election.

20th District: With Lloyd Dogget's gerrymandered seat retracting from San Antonio, Joaquin Castro's seat takes over urban San Antonio and actually moves slightly left. Safe D regardless.

21st District: This suburban Clinton+5 seat is probably in the D-trending parts of Bexar County, and is thus a solid bet for Democrats with Rep. Chip Roy redistricted out. Rep. Tony Gonzalez probably opts to run here instead of the now-Safe D 23rd, but still faces an uphill climb. A Democrat likely defeats Gonzalez (or generic GOPer) by a 53-47 margin.

22nd District: This district is essentially just Fort Bend County, and as Fort Bend is moving steadily left and voted for Biden by 10 this isn't good for the GOP. Rep. Troy Nehls might not run here, but if he does he gets voted out by a 54-46 margin.

23rd District: Moving significantly leftward to Clinton+28, this district loses parts of deep-red West Texas and now behaves essentially like an RGV district. While this of course means it tightens significantly in 2020, it's blue enough for that not matter. A Democrat (maybe a Beto comeback?) wins here 56-43.

24th District: This suburban Dallas district moves from Trump+6 to Clinton+8, moving well into downtown Dallas and shedding more conservative outer suburbs. As a result, Rep. Beth Van Duyne would be hard-pressed to win re-election, especially as Rep. Colin Allred would likely run here (his home base in Dallas seems to be mostly in this district). In a Rep. v. Rep. race, Allred crushes Van Duyne 56-43, and even a non-Allred Democrat would win, albeit by a reduced margin.

25th District: Roger Williams appears to be a lock for re-election here.

26th District: GOP Rep. Michael Burgess appears to be redistricted into Kay Granger's 12th district, but would probably opt to retire or cross the city line into his reconfigured district. However, it's significantly different from his old R+18 district - now R+2, it voted for Clinton by 5 in 2016 and includes parts of quickly shifting Denton County.Burgess puts up a relatively strong performance, but the blue shift here ultimately overwhelms him. A Democrat wins 50-49.

27th District: This slightly reconfigured district still covers much of the conservative regions between the RGV and Houston along the Texas coast. Depending on where he lives in Victoria, Rep. Michael Cloud may have been drawn out, though he'll run and win here anyway.

28th District: Cuellar's district moves significantly left, packing in Democratic islands in coastal cities while losing San Antonio's conservative outskirts. While the RGV shift in 2020 still applies here, this district is probably safe to Ds - though the Democratic left might finally succeed in ousting Cuellar in a bluer district.

29th District: An awkwardly shaped district linking heavily Hispanic areas north of downtown Houston with swingier suburban areas, the new 29th is an open seat that voted Clinton by 10 (and judging by Texas's weird 2020 trends, probably voted for Biden by a similar margin). A local Democrat likely wins this open-seat race 54-45.

30th District: This Clinton+5 district is a blend of urban Dallas and suburban Tarrant County, and thus likely trends slower left than other DFW-area districts. An open-seat battle in 2022, a Democrat holds this formerly-VRA seat by an unexpectedly narrow 53-46 margin.

31st District: This Austin-area seats gets reconfigured to maximize Democratic potential, losing rurals around Killeen, Temple, and Round Rock while jutting into Austin. This comes out to a Clinton+12 district trending blue quickly. Rep. John Carter is probably DOA here, and gets trounced by a Hegar type 57-42 if he even bothers running.

32nd District: This open seat includes Mesquite, part of Garland, and some outer Collin County regions. It has a large minority contingent, and voted Clinton by 13 in 2016 - so, a Democrat likely holds it in 2022 easily, with a 58-41 margin.

33rd District: Rep. Marc Veasey's ugly DFW snake contracts to Fort Worth, and moves rightward accordingly. But, it's not enough to put this seat anywhere near competitiveness - Veasey wins here easily with over 60% of the vote.

34th District: Filemon Vela's RGV district doesn't change partisanship, but as Vela was fairly secure in 2020 it's unlikely he gets unseated in 2022, especially with some snapback towards Dems in the RGV. He wins re-election 57-42.

35th District: This district snakes from San Antonio to Austin, linking D-leaning suburbs together in a facsimile of Lloyd Dogget's old pack - though the longtime Representative likely runs in the neighboring 37th. Regardless, with trends here strong (and a strong baseline - the 35th voted Clinton+12 in 2016), this is Safe D in 2022.

36th District: Rep. Brian Babin technically gets drawn out, but he'll run and win here regardless.

37th District: Rep. Lloyd Doggett runs and wins this Clinton+15 Austin district without much fanfare.

38th District: A Clinton+12 district that takes some AA areas southwest of Houston and pairs them with outer burbs, the 38th is a new, open seat. Democrats likely win this seat in a layup, adding another pickup to their Texas warchest.
 
39th District: 5th District Rep. Lance Gooden gets redistricted (near) here and likely runs for this seat.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 12 seats (+TX-06, TX-10, TX-14, TX-17, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-37, TX-38)
Republicans lose 9 seats (+TX-39, -TX-06, TX-10, TX-14, TX-17, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31)

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

Meh, the R gerry=fair map thing is probably a byproduct of how Democratic California is, not unfair redistricting.

Oh I'm aware, they were meant to be two separate statements, sorry it wasn't clear.

[Coastal Elitist]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

I keep reading how dems tricked the commission but looking at the current map I'm not sure how much better Rs could have done. The fair map I designed compares pretty well to the current map. Also the R gerrymander isn't a fair map it's a proportional one. Proportional does not equal fair.

Regarding this project I think it would be interesting to ignore the commissions and gerrymander for the party not in control

[OBD]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

I keep reading how dems tricked the commission but looking at the current map I'm not sure how much better Rs could have done. The fair map I designed compares pretty well to the current map. Also the R gerrymander isn't a fair map it's a proportional one. Proportional does not equal fair.

Regarding this project I think it would be interesting to ignore the commissions and gerrymander for the party not in control

I'm gonna focus on gerrymanders for the non-commission states for now, but I might go back and gerrymander the commission states later - though mixed-control states would probably retain a fair map.

California is a bear either way though - I've never successfully drawn a CA map so I might just pick a fair map in the CA thread and use that for 2022 results.

[OBD]

Quick update: The Texas analysis is now complete!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Unfortunately California isn't really a commission, it's gamed very well by dems. When 538 did this 2ish years ago the R gerrymander in the state was the same as the fair map. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

"Proportionally partisan" =/= fair. Proportionality isn't and shouldn't be the goal of redistricting.