Chances Republicans win the popular vote in 2024

[MillennialModerate]

...

[sofaboi]

100% chance of Repuboicans winning.

0% chance of Republicans winning.

[dw93]

I'd say 35% of winning the popular and electoral vote, 50% that they win the electoral, but not the popular.

[EastwoodS]

I'd say 35% of winning the popular and electoral vote, 50% that they win the electoral, but not the popular.

If both Republicans win the Georgia senate runoffs, I’d say 40-45% maybe. If it’s split, 35%, if no Republicans win, then 0 probably.

[Del Tachi]

Higher than people think

[Horus]

If Dems go the Yang/Warren/Bernie route not very high, they'll still win the PV with the EV anyone's game.. if they go the Gillibrand/Kamala/Swalwell route it's likely they'll also lose the PV, perhaps substantially. If Biden actually runs again I have no idea, depends on how he does.

[EastwoodS]

If Dems go the Yang/Warren/Bernie route not very high, they'll still win the PV with the EV anyone's game.. if they go the Gillibrand/Kamala/Swalwell route it's likely they'll also lose the PV, perhaps substantially. If Biden actually runs again I have no idea, depends on how he does.

If Harris runs, I’m afraid Democrats will be ~el ed~

[MATTROSE94]

99.9% chance they win the electoral vote and a 50% chance they win the popular vote.

[Figueira]

Maybe 20-30%, but it's way too early to tell. I think Del Tachi is right that there's nothing blocking the Republicans from winning, but I also think there are just inherently more Democratic voters than Republican voters.

[WD]

Less than 20%

[TheReckoning]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

[EastwoodS]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that

[kwabbit]

I'd say about 40%. I think Biden is the nominee 25% of the time, Harris is nominee 50% of the time, and someone else is the nominee 25% of the time.

If Biden- 10% of GOP PV win. 30% of GOP EV win. I don't think Biden would run if he's weak and he's running he'll probably be strong nationally again.

If Harris- 60% of GOP PV win. 80% of GOP EV win. I think Harris would flop at the top of the ticket. She had very weak performances in CA elections and flopped as a presidential candidate. She has baggage from the leftward posturing she did prior to her 2020 run and even though she may try to moderate, voters estimate Black women as more radical than they are. If she is up against a GOP nominee who at least presents as somewhat moderate, defeat is very likely and a PV defeat would likely happen. I just can't see her winning much if the Republicans nominate someone other than Trump, Cruz, or Cotton.

If Someone Else- 40% of GOP PV win, 60% chance of GOP EV win. The Dem nominee will be better than Harris bc they had to beat her to get the nomination. The PV tilts Dem and a generic D would still probably be favored.

In total I have 42.5% chance of GOP PV win and 62.5% chance of GOP EV win.

[TheReckoning]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that

Biden wins in 2024.

[morgankingsley]

If anybody but Trump is the nominee and Biden is a god awful president? Almost 100 percent chance

If one of those two, but not both, occur? Likely Dem

If neither occurs (Trump nominee, Biden good president)? No chance

Just like I honestly consider Perot's 92 run to be a very fundamentally rare type of campaign where somebody could do that well in the popular vote and not win any states, I consider Trump to be one of the fundamentally rare campaigns that would need an electoral landslide for a popular victory. Any other third party who replicated Perot's percentages would certainly win at least SOME electoral votes, and any uncontroversial republican who ran against an unpopular democrat would probably have a good chance of winning the popular vote

[EastwoodS]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that

Biden wins in 2024.

I also doubt that if Trump isn’t on the ballot. Biden barely won with a coalition that will probably sleep through Election Day in 2024.

[TheReckoning]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that

Biden wins in 2024.

I also doubt that if Trump isn’t on the ballot. Biden barely won with a coalition that will probably sleep through Election Day in 2024.

Winning the PV by 4.4% isn’t “barely winning”.

[EastwoodS]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that

Biden wins in 2024.

I also doubt that if Trump isn’t on the ballot. Biden barely won with a coalition that will probably sleep through Election Day in 2024.

Winning the PV by 4.4% isn’t “barely winning”.

PV doesn’t matter. The sooner people like you realize that, the happier we will all be

[EastwoodS]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that

Biden wins in 2024.

I also doubt that if Trump isn’t on the ballot. Biden barely won with a coalition that will probably sleep through Election Day in 2024.

Winning the PV by 4.4% isn’t “barely winning”.

PV doesn’t matter. The sooner people like you realize that, the happier we will all be

And considering how strong the “hate” against Trump was I would consider 4.4% to be quite a depressing and mediocre margin.

[cwh2018]

Higher than people think

Correct probably between a 1 in 3 and 40% chance of it happening.

[BaldEagle1991]

Probably 50%.

This will depend on who's the Republican nominee. If Biden is running or if Kamala Harris is running.

[Hope For A New Era]

Electoral: 50%

Popular: 5%

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Vanishingly small. Like still a non-zero number, but after 16 years, I think it’s safe to say the chances are incredibly poor.

[Catalyst138]

...

Anywhere between 0% to 0%.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that

Biden wins in 2024.

I also doubt that if Trump isn’t on the ballot. Biden barely won with a coalition that will probably sleep through Election Day in 2024.

You think Biden’s coalition will sleep through Election Day, but Trump’s coalition won’t? Both sides will have reduced turnout from 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This far out, probably between a 1/3 to a 1/4 chance. It's possible, but there's no evidence to suggest that they are favored to do so.