How much would Trump running influence Biden's decision to run?

[Sir Mohamed]

An interesting thought: I tend to believe Biden seeking reelection becomes more likely if Trump actually runs again and by early or mid 2023 seems poised to become GOP nominee. I wouldn't be surprised if party officials then try to convince Biden making another run if he hasn't already announced because he has the incumbency and a contested primary would, in all likelyhood, be avoided. Sure, I'm assuming Biden is still healthy enough (just like Trump himself). Biden so far is the only person who can claim to have defeated Donald Trump. Leading Dem officials may just feel Harris or a progressive nominee are too risky to avoid Trump. And I'm saying this as a Harris admirer (though I'm also not saying she would be a weak candidate).

I think this will become a factor especially if polling shows Biden is the strongest Dem candidate. Sure, polling has lost some credibility, but the electability angle was a major factor why he became our nominee in 2020. And the 2020 election result seems to back up this claim (not saying Sanders or anyone else would have lost to Trump, but it seems nominating Biden was a good decision).

What do you think?

[Del Tachi]

To a certain extent, this was the whole justification for Biden’s run in 2020 - to defeat Trump.  If he feels like he’s the only guy who can do it again in 2024, then Biden will run again.