How much would the Democrat have to lead in national polls before they're favored?

[ProgressiveModerate]

We've seen two Presidential elections in a row where polls by and large underestimated Republican support. Furthermore, the EC-PV divide has continued to grow and it's unclear when that trend will reverse. Could we get to a point where a Democrat consistantly leads by 10% nationally, but Atlas still calls the race a tossup?

[Bomster]

+4-5

[It’s so Joever]

5-8%

[MATTROSE94]

Probably by about 25%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They'd need to lead by 40% or more, otherwise the election isn't even tossup, it's safe R.