GA - Trafalgar: Ossoff+1, Loeffler+5

[n1240]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eFVivsXv4uwZNBzuO-y7rMjo7LXVvfVF/view

12/1-3, 1083 LV

[lfromnj]

Although the hate on this forum for Trafalgar is exaggerated their Georgia polls are actually junk with serious R bias. Not a good sign for Rs.

[VAR]

Although the hate on this forum for Trafalgar is exaggerated their Georgia polls are actually junk with serious R bias. Not a good sign for Rs.

Loeffler isn't running 6 points ahead of Perdue

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeremiah Wright controversy has hurt WARNOCK chances, but we still have 30 days


This is an R pollster having Ossoff up is splendid news

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Loeffler runs 6 points ahead of Perdue I'm quitting atlas. I could see the case that Perdue might be too "moderate" or "establishment" for some Trumpists and I wouldn't be completely shocked if she ran slightly ahead of Perdue, but this is... I mean come on.

[n1240]

Warnock actually has a higher % than Ossoff before leaners, but Ossoff gets 6.1% off leaners while Warnock gets 2.9%.

Unfortunately Trafalgar has decided not to include crosstabs with this poll. The sample seems to have higher black % than you'd expect (34.7%), but would think Warnock would do better than 45% given this fact.

[Gass3268]

Trashfalgar gonna trash

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warnock actually has a higher % than Ossoff before leaners, but Ossoff gets 6.1% off leaners while Warnock gets 2.9%.

Unfortunately Trafalgar has decided not to include crosstabs with this poll. The sample seems to have higher black % than you'd expect (34.7%), but would think Warnock would do better than 45% given this fact.

Actually, Ossoff has a higher chance of winning Obama isn't gonna campaign for GA Runoffs due to Jeramiah Wright and Rev Warnock, it's was difficult for D's to sweep both races anyways. But Trump contesting the Election has made it difficult for the Rs to sweep both races too

[Buzz]

Crack.

[WD]

No.

Weak Candidates Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff are probably down by 15-20 both. Trash it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So if we take this poll at face value, Strong Candidate Jon Ossoff will outperform Weak Candidate Raphael Warnock by 6 points.

On the other hand, if we take the SUSA poll at face value, then Strong Candidate Raphael Warnock will outperform Weak Candidate Jon Ossoff by 5 points.

On the other hand, if we apply basic common sense (and also if we average those differences) then we come to the conclusion that both of those polls are wrong and there will be very little difference between the performance of Ossoff and Warnock, maybe a point or 2 at the very most. I think I'll go with this option...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No.

Weak Candidates Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff are probably down by 15-20 both. Trash it.

As previously stated Warnock is going thru Rev Jeramiah Wright controversy, that's why Obama is doing virtual campaigning, not in person campaigns

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's no way Kelly Loeffler is outrunning David Perdue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Watch and see, we are seeing the replication of the Lindsey Graham v James Harrison where an AA candidate is polling below a WC candidate

[brucejoel99]

This is Trafalgar. Strangeness (read: junk) is to be expected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Trafalgar. Strangeness (read: junk) is to be expected.

Trafalgar was accurate in MI, WI and PA, by the way, Trump was within 1 of winning any of the trio of states

[Xing]

You’re telling me candidate quality... doesn’t matter?

[Hope For A New Era]

lol what

[WD]

You’re telling me candidate quality... doesn’t matter?

It’s a damn lie, don’t believe for 1 second. Perdue and Warnock are going to coast.

[MT Treasurer]

Any political operative or serious observer/analyst who puts any stock in polling in a race like this in a state like this or even lets polling determine their strategy/analysis ought to be fired.

[Tender Branson]

That's weird.

While I think voters could hand Dems and Reps each a small win, I don't think the difference will be 6 points.

And I think Warnock would do better than Ossoff.

[Frenchrepublican]

Hard to see so much ticket splitting

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1334927081835270147

Tells you all you need to know about the poll, honestly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trashfalgar gonna trash

I would much rather rely on Trafalgar than the "high-quality" polls you and others propped up for over a year (that were way more inaccurate than Trafalgar). However, I do not trust Traflagar with this one, and given their record with Georgia, this is not good news for Perdue and Loeffler.

[roxas11]

Their last poll during the election showed Trump winning GA by 5 points

these results showed that thier poll has clear R bias and for that reason alone I will not take any GA poll coming from them seriously ever again...