When will Missouri, Ohio, Iowa and Florida be competitive again?

[Suburbia]

It's surprising these four states are now red states now.

[Matty]

ohio and iowa are gone at least for the next few cycles.

those states are demographically much more similar to arkansas and missouri than michigan or PA.

Southern whites swinging by ussr margins to the gop in 2000 locked away arkansas and kentucky forever.

industrial whites swining by ussr margin to gop in 2016 locked away iowa and ohio for a good while imo.

[Bootes Void]

Florida will remain competitive but the others will take time before the next realignment

[Red Wall]

Missouri never. Iowa will probably be even redder than Missouri because it doesn't have any city like KC. Even a declining St Louis still has more population than Des Moines.

Ohio needs suburbs like Delaware turning dem, but the state doesn't have big metros capable of carrying dems to statewide wins, even population increases in Columbus are offset by declines in Cleveland. Best case for dems it is the state remains static

Florida is an inelastic state that produces small margins but has a Republican structural advantage. Also unwinnable to dems until they can go back to over 20 points wins in Dade and larger wins in Orange, Duval, Hillsbrough and Pinellas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MO, never, but the rest are gonna be competetive in 2024

[dw93]

Florida is the only one, and God only knows how much longer it will be given recent trends.