GA - SurveyUSA: Ossoff+2, Warnock+7

[Frenchrepublican]

It's a Biden+4/Ossoff+1 sample, so draw your own conclusions.... but while I don't think that you're going to see a massive democratic turnout drop off similar to what happened in 2008 it's probably unlikely that democrats are going to massively outvote republicans especially considering that in GA the dem base is still largely composed of lower income people.

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone buy the 2 runoffs having results that far apart? CW is they are both within 2%ish either way. 

Not buying it either

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1334508922758180864
I need future polls to confirm this, but like trump voters staying home cause the election is rigged might be an actual thing.

Yeah, but the polls numbers seem to contradict this theory.

The registered voters sample is Biden+4 and Ossoff +3 (among November voters), at the same time the smaller likely voters sample is Biden+4 and Ossoff+1, so a bit less dem friendly than the registered voters one, and the sample of people who are registered to vote but don't intend to vote in the runoff is Biden+8 and Ossoff+8.

So if these numbers are true lower turnout would hurt more democrats than republicans

[Frenchrepublican]

Junk.

Not much else to say.

Your Georgia record isn't exactly stellar

I can't believe people on this forum have the audacity to pick out a single state from somebody who got it almost all right when they've gotten almost the entire 2020 election wrong. You guys were predicting Iowa, Ohio, and Texas a toss-up, Kansas, Iowa, and Montana Senate races a toss-up (with many predicting Dems winning them). All based on junky polls which confirmed what you wanted to happen.

Calling a Biden +4, 5% margin of error poll "junk" is not a bold statement and has nothing to do with any kind of "record" that Buzz has. Yall gang up on him just like you gang up on me or anyone who tells it like it is. Same behavior that was going on before the election validated and repeated. You'll continue to do this and learn nothing for years.

To be honest, Kaiser Dave's predictions were very accurate