GA - SurveyUSA: Ossoff+2, Warnock+7

[n1240]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea81d6f1-db8e-4f77-b44a-63e9893acc3e

Ossoff 50
Perdue 48

Warnock 52
Loeffler 45

11/27-11/30, 583 LV

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Obligatory never trusting polls again, I think you need to divide the margin by 10 to get the actual results which is a razor thin democrat lead. No way is Warnock winning by +7 points or Ossof by +2 points. It's going to be within 4 points either way.

[The Ex-Factor]

Their final poll in October had Biden +2, Perdue +3, and Warnock 30/Loeffler 26/Collins 20.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b396b793-781d-4382-9ada-fc4cc50dacb6

[Mr.Phips]

I have a real hard time trusting this.

[VAR]

Kemp approval (RV): 43/46

Biden +4 sample

[Roll Roons]

Their final poll in October had Biden +2, Perdue +3, and Warnock 30/Loeffler 26/Collins 20.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b396b793-781d-4382-9ada-fc4cc50dacb6

So pretty good by the standards of this year's polls.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1334508922758180864
I need future polls to confirm this, but like trump voters staying home cause the election is rigged might be an actual thing.

[Sir Mohamed]

While GA polls didn't overestimate the GOP like in practically the rest of the country, I'm still not there to take it seriously. As said earlier, I take it as a given there will be a 52-48 R senate. I don't want to get my hopes high just for another disappointment.

[VAR]

Warnock is doing worse among African-Americans than Ossoff.

[brucejoel99]

Don't do that.

Don't give me hope.

[KaiserDave]

But any measure this is a wonderful poll for Democrats, especially the lack of enthusiasm or faith from Republicans.

But I still don't care about polls here.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone buy the 2 runoffs having results that far apart? CW is they are both within 2%ish either way. 

[MT Treasurer]

Not going to let any poll influence my prediction here, but yes, GA Republicans are absolutely screwed after 2021/2022 even if they (narrowly) hold both seats in January.

[Sir Mohamed]

Warnock is doing worse among African-Americans than Ossoff.

This is why polling is garbage and should never be trusted. It's a small sub-sample though.

If accurate, it suggests Warnock overperforming among whites that much that it explains him doing 5 pts better than Ossoff. That just isn't happening.

[Roll Roons]

Actually, should NYT/Siena do a poll here? This is one of the few states where their final poll was nearly accurate (president and regular Senate tied, Warnock at 32, Loeffler at 23, Collins at 17).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Better than other poll, Trump contesting Election has backfired on the GOP

Ossoff is Jewish and Warnock is AA what a great combo to have in Senate

[Hope For A New Era]

I have doubt.

Ossoff looks believable, but Warnock +7? Seriously? I mean, I wish, but it's not happening.

[Devils30]

I don't trust this but the voter pool in January will not be the same as November. Fewer young people hurts Dems but more of the white voters will be from the college group that went 56-43 Trump or so rather than the WWC group that was like 82-18 Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am glad I updated my map to D's winning both Runoffs, others kept it Lean R like Xing and there is no way to update it now

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone buy the 2 runoffs having results that far apart? CW is they are both within 2%ish either way. 

I think Warnock will definitely run ahead of Ossoff, although maybe not that much.  Lots of people here like David Perdue and the whole Perdue family.  Nobody really likes Loeffler.

[VAR]

Aren't the low-propensity voters in this state mostly Democrats for obvious reasons? This isn't Iowa, lol.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's a Biden+4/Ossoff+1 sample, so draw your own conclusions.... but while I don't think that you're going to see a massive democratic turnout drop off similar to what happened in 2008 it's probably unlikely that democrats are going to massively outvote republicans especially considering that in GA the dem base is still largely composed of lower income people.

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone buy the 2 runoffs having results that far apart? CW is they are both within 2%ish either way. 

Not buying it either

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's win both races, pressure is gonna build on Manchin to rebuff his pledge to not repeal the Filibuster and pass the 2.2 T stimulus, or it can go to Reconciliation but that is in Spring.
We need these two seats

[Pollster]

We're going into the field again on Monday, and this poll's got me curious to see what we get.

SurveyUSA doesn't typically deviate that far from us, but I have trouble buying the Warnock number in particular here.