How will the WOW suburbs go in 2024?

[R.P. McM]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

I also live in an assembly district that flipped Dem this year but I think that the WOW counties will swing back to the right once Trump is out of the picture, the areas that shifted left are wealthy and don't have much to actually gain from Democratic policies. There is no way Mequon, for example, would vote Dem if it meant that their taxes would go up. The reason why Donald Trump lost the state in 2020 was because a chunk of suburban WOW Republicans never liked him personally, but a lot of them voted Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and are still conservative voters.

And West Virginians have an economic incentive to stay with the GOP?

Well a lot of Democrats say they want to end the coal industry so I think West Virginians can put two and two together there.

True. Overall, the Democratic agenda is far more beneficial to working-class people. But the coal industry is one glaring exception. However, I don't think the rest of us should be poisoned on behalf of a provincial interest in a tiny "state" that is literally wasting away. Given the population trends, it will probably become necessary in the immediate future to remove WV's designation of "statehood" and its two senators.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D, Tammy Baldwin is up in 2024 and she won them handily in 2018, and D's will win 2022 Senate race too, Ron Johnson barely won in 2016 along with Pat Toomey had it not been for Gary Johnson

[MargieCat]

Likely D, Tammy Baldwin is up in 2024 and she won them handily in 2018, and D's will win 2022 Senate race too, Ron Johnson barely won in 2016 along with Pat Toomey had it not been for Gary Johnson

Baldwin didn't carry the WOW suburbs. I think she performed similarly to Biden in them.

Everyone thinks that 2022 will be a red-wave year, and it might. But I really think Ron Johnson is the most endangered republican (second if Loeffler defeats Warnock). The easiest pickups for the democrats would be PA and NC (depending on which candidates the GOP fields in both states).

Ron Johnson said that admitting Biden won would be political suicide. Trump is asking for the names of the GOP senators that have been badmouthing him. He could very easily destroy Ron Johnson by tweet if he woke up on the wrong side of the bed.

Realistically speaking, I think Wisconsin falls somewhere between Baldwin's 2018 margin and Biden's 2020 without Trump on the ballot.

[jamestroll]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

shhh you don't want to hurt peoples feelings here.

Of course off year elections in Wisconsin or anywhere will show some reversion to the mean but its not unreasonable to think Biden can match or possibly exceed his wow showing in 2024 and lose Wisconsin still.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

I also live in an assembly district that flipped Dem this year but I think that the WOW counties will swing back to the right once Trump is out of the picture, the areas that shifted left are wealthy and don't have much to actually gain from Democratic policies. There is no way Mequon, for example, would vote Dem if it meant that their taxes would go up. The reason why Donald Trump lost the state in 2020 was because a chunk of suburban WOW Republicans never liked him personally, but a lot of them voted Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and are still conservative voters.

And West Virginians have an economic incentive to stay with the GOP?

Well a lot of Democrats say they want to end the coal industry so I think West Virginians can put two and two together there.

Fine, other impoverished rural whites who don’t work in coal/gas.
The answer is clearly no.

My point is that people don’t vote on their pocketbooks like 90’s wisdom suggests.

People still vote on their pocketbooks in the WOW counties though, it's still made up of wealthy conservative GOP suburbs and is the core of the GOP base in Wisconsin and that isn't changing anytime soon. The Dems aren't flipping Ozaukee County even if they win the election by 10 points and the other two counties are even more GOP.

The percentage of the population who still votes on economic issues is equivalent to the number of times I’ve been laid...interpret that as you wish.

[RINO Tom]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

shhh you don't want to hurt peoples feelings here.

Of course off year elections in Wisconsin or anywhere will show some reversion to the mean but its not unreasonable to think Biden can match or possibly exceed his wow showing in 2024 and lose Wisconsin still.

Uh, if anything it is those most promoting the idea of trends accelerating and continuing indefinitely who respond to ANYONE questioning this with hurt feelings and anger.

[Orwell]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

"Titanium R" doesn't mean as much when they've been swinging D for several cycles in a row.

Look at the results of WI-05, which covers much of Waukesha+Washington.
2014: R+39
2016: R+38
2018: R+24
2020: R+20

Doesn't look like down-ballot R's, even Sensenbrenner and Fitzgerald (who are about as generic R as you can find) are doing as well as you'd expect in a supposedly titanium R area.

The same counties on a Presidential level?

2012: R+35
2016: R+28
2020: R+23

On both a Presidential level and down-ballot level, they're trending left... It may not be as quick as the Atlanta burbs, but it's the same direction. Trump contributes to the swings, but whether Trump remains the main face of the GOP or not, these counties will continue swinging D.

WI-5 numbers are a bit misleading because it includes some parts of Milwaukee county, Waukesha at the congressional level was 65.5R vs 34.5D and Washinton was 71.5R vs 28.5D,.

Eh, the parts of Milwaukee county that WI-05 includes are suburban (Wauwatosa, West Allis, Greenfield) and their trends are generally similar to the rest of WOW (while they don't vote exactly the same). Doesn't disqualify them from being examined to evaluate WOW trends and suburban SE WI trends.

I have a special friend in Tosa, and I can contend that it is quite a bit different than much of Milwaukee. Also shoutout to my boy Tyler Herro from Greenfield. 

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

depends on the candidate.

trump will probably be the nominee in 2024, and I could see the Waukesha or Ozaukee swinging a good 5% to the left, combined with improvements in Suburban MKE county if he is the nominee.