How will the WOW suburbs go in 2024?

[Bootes Void]

This might be one of the few metro suburbs that hasn't trended for the Dems until 2016 and especially 2020. In theory if republicans are to gain in suburban areas in 2024, you would most likely see it in the Milwaukee suburbs. However trends are trends and you may not see it. So how will the WOW suburbs go in 2024?

[MATTROSE94]

Ron DeSantis probably regains the WOW suburbs in both 2024 and 2028.

[Red Wall]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI is a tipper state, but it's not IA or OH, with Baldwin whom won by a landslide in 2018, D's should be fine in 2024

[redjohn]

Assuming Trump is again the GOP nominee and the race is against Biden/Harris again, all three counties swing D, and Ozaukee is within single-digits for the first time since 1964.

Anyone paying attention here knows the way the winds are blowing. Scott Walker, the darling of the WOW counties, had all three swing strongly against him in 2018. If I recall correctly, Waukesha and Ozaukee had the biggest D swings in the state. There's no reason any Republican right-wing enough to win the 2024 nomination would somehow reverse the D trends here. Perhaps someone like Romney would cause the counties to swing R, but nobody like Romney is getting near the GOP nomination.

[redjohn]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

"Titanium R" doesn't mean as much when they've been swinging D for several cycles in a row.

Look at the results of WI-05, which covers much of Waukesha+Washington.
2014: R+39
2016: R+38
2018: R+24
2020: R+20

Doesn't look like down-ballot R's, even Sensenbrenner and Fitzgerald (who are about as generic R as you can find) are doing as well as you'd expect in a supposedly titanium R area.

The same counties on a Presidential level?

2012: R+35
2016: R+28
2020: R+23

On both a Presidential level and down-ballot level, they're trending left... It may not be as quick as the Atlanta burbs, but it's the same direction. Trump contributes to the swings, but whether Trump remains the main face of the GOP or not, these counties will continue swinging D.

[Frenchrepublican]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

"Titanium R" doesn't mean as much when they've been swinging D for several cycles in a row.

Look at the results of WI-05, which covers much of Waukesha+Washington.
2014: R+39
2016: R+38
2018: R+24
2020: R+20

Doesn't look like down-ballot R's, even Sensenbrenner and Fitzgerald (who are about as generic R as you can find) are doing as well as you'd expect in a supposedly titanium R area.

The same counties on a Presidential level?

2012: R+35
2016: R+28
2020: R+23

On both a Presidential level and down-ballot level, they're trending left... It may not be as quick as the Atlanta burbs, but it's the same direction. Trump contributes to the swings, but whether Trump remains the main face of the GOP or not, these counties will continue swinging D.

WI-5 numbers are a bit misleading because it includes some parts of Milwaukee county, Waukesha at the congressional level was 65.5R vs 34.5D and Washinton was 71.5R vs 28.5D,.

[redjohn]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

"Titanium R" doesn't mean as much when they've been swinging D for several cycles in a row.

Look at the results of WI-05, which covers much of Waukesha+Washington.
2014: R+39
2016: R+38
2018: R+24
2020: R+20

Doesn't look like down-ballot R's, even Sensenbrenner and Fitzgerald (who are about as generic R as you can find) are doing as well as you'd expect in a supposedly titanium R area.

The same counties on a Presidential level?

2012: R+35
2016: R+28
2020: R+23

On both a Presidential level and down-ballot level, they're trending left... It may not be as quick as the Atlanta burbs, but it's the same direction. Trump contributes to the swings, but whether Trump remains the main face of the GOP or not, these counties will continue swinging D.

WI-5 numbers are a bit misleading because it includes some parts of Milwaukee county, Waukesha at the congressional level was 65.5R vs 34.5D and Washinton was 71.5R vs 28.5D,.

Eh, the parts of Milwaukee county that WI-05 includes are suburban (Wauwatosa, West Allis, Greenfield) and their trends are generally similar to the rest of WOW (while they don't vote exactly the same). Doesn't disqualify them from being examined to evaluate WOW trends and suburban SE WI trends.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one thing that separates the WOW counties from other suburban areas in the US is that they aren't becoming more diverse or more educated. I think long term, they are becoming slightly more D, but not to the same extent as other suburbs, and we may see a dead cat bounce in 2024 depending upon who the GOP runs.

[forsythvoter]

I'd love to get the perspective of locals in the area as I think there's a lot nuance within counties that you wouldn't know just by looking at county election maps (it always annoys me when folks treat Cobb or Gwinnett for example here in GA as monoliths in terms of demographics and voting patterns, when in fact they are more like 3 or 4 communities that just happen to fall within the same county).

Fwiw, Ozaukee strikes me as really similar to other suburbs that have trended most heavily Dem - inner suburban (Mequon borders the city of Milwaukee), more established albeit still growing, and so I think this county will likely continue to trend D. Nearby suburbs like Bayside, River Forest and Brown Deer now routinely give Ds 55-70% of the vote already.

Washington still strikes me as much more exurban and until the growth in Germantown in the SE corner (which seems more similar to nearby suburbs like Mequon) spills further north and westward, I would expect it to be the first to snap back or at least remain steady R.

Waukesha is hard to tell. The eastern part of the county (Brookfield, Menomenee Falls, New Berlin) seem like suburbs that are maturing and as they age, would probably follow the same D trends we see in next-door suburbs like Wauwatosa. These suburbs only cast about a third of the county-wide vote, so I can see a snap-back in the rest of the county that cancels out these trends and maybe some more. Time will tell.

Also, is Waukesha City a real mini-city or is it just another suburb like Brookfield that is called a city because of historical reasons? It seems to be trending D as well although I can't tell if that's because it's more urban or because of educated suburbanites swinging D.

[neostassenite31]

I think one thing that separates the WOW counties from other suburban areas in the US is that they aren't becoming more diverse or more educated. I think long term, they are becoming slightly more D, but not to the same extent as other suburbs, and we may see a dead cat bounce in 2024 depending upon who the GOP runs.

I am not sure if it's so much about diversity or education in the case of Milwaukee. The WOWs are among the most well-educated counties in the entire state of WI and most other Midwestern and northern suburbs aren't particularly diverse either.

My guess would be that it has something to do with the size and population of the Milwaukee metro in general.

[It’s so Joever]

“Trends only are real if they benefit my party’”
-half of Atlas, including blue and red avatars.

[RINO Tom]

Ron DeSantis probably regains the WOW suburbs in both 2024 and 2028.

I think something has to be lost in order to regain it.

[S019]

I don't think they flip and I don't think they will trend that much D either, other than Mequon, these areas are still heavily Republican, in any case, they probably won't trend D enough to offset the continuing Democratic decline in the Driftless

[Frenchrepublican]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

"Titanium R" doesn't mean as much when they've been swinging D for several cycles in a row.

Look at the results of WI-05, which covers much of Waukesha+Washington.
2014: R+39
2016: R+38
2018: R+24
2020: R+20

Doesn't look like down-ballot R's, even Sensenbrenner and Fitzgerald (who are about as generic R as you can find) are doing as well as you'd expect in a supposedly titanium R area.

The same counties on a Presidential level?

2012: R+35
2016: R+28
2020: R+23

On both a Presidential level and down-ballot level, they're trending left... It may not be as quick as the Atlanta burbs, but it's the same direction. Trump contributes to the swings, but whether Trump remains the main face of the GOP or not, these counties will continue swinging D.

WI-5 numbers are a bit misleading because it includes some parts of Milwaukee county, Waukesha at the congressional level was 65.5R vs 34.5D and Washinton was 71.5R vs 28.5D,.

Eh, the parts of Milwaukee county that WI-05 includes are suburban (Wauwatosa, West Allis, Greenfield) and their trends are generally similar to the rest of WOW (while they don't vote exactly the same). Doesn't disqualify them from being examined to evaluate WOW trends and suburban SE WI trends.

The Milwaukee parts of WI-5 were D+14 so no, you can't compare them to the WOW parts which are still much more conservative, also trends seem to be much stronger in the inner suburbs of than in the more exurban parts of the metro area.

[Frenchrepublican]

Frankly it's hard to say.

If you believe that the recent trends will continue once Biden enters the White House then WOW counties will likely continue to shift left, Waukesha would begin to give routinely +40% to democrats and Ozaukee would become a single digit county.

Now it's possible that the left wing trends in WOW counties will revert back a bit once Biden enter the White House, the idea behind this theory is that these trends were not due to a ideological or demographical shift like it is the case in some other suburban areas where democrats made strong gains, including in downballot races, over the past few years (Gwinnett, Cobb in GA, Chester in PA, Oakland in MI or Loudoun in VA) but more because of some antipathy toward Trump. This theory could explain why congressional democrats underperformed massively Joe Biden in WOW counties.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The same answer I would give to a lot of these questions: It depends on the nominees

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I think they're more likely than not to snap back because they're not as diverse as sunbelt suburbs, and opposition to a Democratic president will take hold stronger here.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

WOW=RGV but for the Republicans.

[WIResident]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

I also live in an assembly district that flipped Dem this year but I think that the WOW counties will swing back to the right once Trump is out of the picture, the areas that shifted left are wealthy and don't have much to actually gain from Democratic policies. There is no way Mequon, for example, would vote Dem if it meant that their taxes would go up. The reason why Donald Trump lost the state in 2020 was because a chunk of suburban WOW Republicans never liked him personally, but a lot of them voted Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and are still conservative voters.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

I also live in an assembly district that flipped Dem this year but I think that the WOW counties will swing back to the right once Trump is out of the picture, the areas that shifted left are wealthy and don't have much to actually gain from Democratic policies. There is no way Mequon, for example, would vote Dem if it meant that their taxes would go up. The reason why Donald Trump lost the state in 2020 was because a chunk of suburban WOW Republicans never liked him personally, but a lot of them voted Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and are still conservative voters.

And West Virginians have an economic incentive to stay with the GOP?

[WIResident]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

I also live in an assembly district that flipped Dem this year but I think that the WOW counties will swing back to the right once Trump is out of the picture, the areas that shifted left are wealthy and don't have much to actually gain from Democratic policies. There is no way Mequon, for example, would vote Dem if it meant that their taxes would go up. The reason why Donald Trump lost the state in 2020 was because a chunk of suburban WOW Republicans never liked him personally, but a lot of them voted Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and are still conservative voters.

And West Virginians have an economic incentive to stay with the GOP?

Well a lot of Democrats say they want to end the coal industry so I think West Virginians can put two and two together there.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

I also live in an assembly district that flipped Dem this year but I think that the WOW counties will swing back to the right once Trump is out of the picture, the areas that shifted left are wealthy and don't have much to actually gain from Democratic policies. There is no way Mequon, for example, would vote Dem if it meant that their taxes would go up. The reason why Donald Trump lost the state in 2020 was because a chunk of suburban WOW Republicans never liked him personally, but a lot of them voted Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and are still conservative voters.

And West Virginians have an economic incentive to stay with the GOP?

Well a lot of Democrats say they want to end the coal industry so I think West Virginians can put two and two together there.

Fine, other impoverished rural whites who don’t work in coal/gas.
The answer is clearly no.

My point is that people don’t vote on their pocketbooks like 90’s wisdom suggests.

[WIResident]

I'm from the WOW counties, a very Republican portion of them infact. The idea of them shaping back is silly and wishful (on the part of some R's). It was wrong before the election, and it remains wrong after the election. Congressional and statewide Republicans are continuing to do worse over time even though they outperform Trump. A Wauwatosa-Elm Grove-Brookfield district just flipped Dem in the assembly, a seat R's won even in 2018. There are serious concerns here for what used to be the heart of the GOP base in Wisconsin.

I also live in an assembly district that flipped Dem this year but I think that the WOW counties will swing back to the right once Trump is out of the picture, the areas that shifted left are wealthy and don't have much to actually gain from Democratic policies. There is no way Mequon, for example, would vote Dem if it meant that their taxes would go up. The reason why Donald Trump lost the state in 2020 was because a chunk of suburban WOW Republicans never liked him personally, but a lot of them voted Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and are still conservative voters.

And West Virginians have an economic incentive to stay with the GOP?

Well a lot of Democrats say they want to end the coal industry so I think West Virginians can put two and two together there.

Fine, other impoverished rural whites who don’t work in coal/gas.
The answer is clearly no.

My point is that people don’t vote on their pocketbooks like 90’s wisdom suggests.

People still vote on their pocketbooks in the WOW counties though, it's still made up of wealthy conservative GOP suburbs and is the core of the GOP base in Wisconsin and that isn't changing anytime soon. The Dems aren't flipping Ozaukee County even if they win the election by 10 points and the other two counties are even more GOP.