Democratic Primary: Harris vs. Fetterman

[bagelman]

Suppose Kamala Harris, establishment politician extraordinaire, runs against John Fetterman who won PA-SEN in 2022. Could also be someone else similar to Fetterman, but going with him for this scenario. John Fetterman has the support of independents and lockstep support from those under 35 who make less than $100k yearly. Kamala Harris has support from the establishment machines. I will vote for Fetterman and I will refuse to vote for Harris if she is the nominee. I'm considering making a pledge to never vote for Kamala Harris, easily to rationalize as Ohio is no longer a swing state. I'm holding myself back as it's over 3 years out. Harris vs. Billionaire is a scenario where I'm forced to fall in line behind the Kween.

The old adage "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line" is under threat. Democrats were asked to fall in line in 2016, failed to do so sufficiently, asked to do so again in 2020 after suffering the consequences and did so sufficiently. Republicans are beginning to attack their own who aren't helping Trump's hopeless effort to steal the election and Trump leads in 2024 primary polls. Because of this Harris is the strong favorite in this matchup. The gerontocracy wants Harris to represent the next generation and the new generation of the Creative Class and the Coalition of the Ascendant. We all know what those terms really mean.

Kerry '04: Never really in doubt. Fetterman is one of many less than viable underdog opponents (Kerry '04) or is the only challenger to President Harris/the invisible primaries in 2023 were rather decisive in a scenario where the GE is far scarier for Democrats. (Carter '80, fits with 2020 as 1976)

Biden '20: Fetterman wins the early contests, Kamala kisses the ring of power players in SC and Super Tuesday states, Obama and Biden come out swinging for her, she cleans up and the primary's over.

Clinton '16: Fetterman is a serious challenger but Harris's coalition of olds and political machines is stronger.

Obama '08: The Woke Warren '20 are the queenmakers for Harris. Fetterman is preferred by large groups however Harris is just palatable enough to get by.

Option 5: What Sanders supporters were rightfully worried about in 2016 and in February 2020. One could argue that Obama's win in 2008 was this, actually. Hillary Clinton did have more votes than he did.

Obama '08 for Fetterman: The zoomers and independents in open primary states overwhelmingly for Fetterman turn out to be the kingmakers over the superdelegates and south. There are Plots but Fetterman is judged to be acceptable for the establishment and, more importantly, a better shot to defend the White House.

Fetterman by More: Harris is a paper tiger. I honestly think that this could be the case, she's just not charismatic and she did turn out to be a total dud in Fall 2019. Attacking Biden on Busing was just weird, Busing was a very unpopular issue back in the day and if I was a boomer I would've opposed Busing. If you dig into the old archives of the 2020 board, you find lots of Harris predictions in 2019 and 2018. However, I must admit I'm incredibly biased in this regard. I'm outnumbered 4 to 20 in this matchup so perhaps there's something in Harris that you see and I don't, I see and you don't, or I see and doesn't exist. (you could argue Hawley is the real paper tiger but that's not the point)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore and Biden were jokes in the primary like Harris before they were VP. Sadly, the Democratic party really loves to nominate VPs.

[bagelman]

Gore and Biden were jokes in the primary like Harris before they were VP. Sadly, the Democratic party really loves to nominate VPs.

Biden, Gore, Mondale, and Humphrey. 

[Barack Oganja]

Harris wins like Gore in 2000 primary

[Left Wing]

Fetterman runs a really good campaign and pulls off a few upset victories in some states but Harris ultimately she defeats Fetterman by about the same amount Hillary won by.

[blackentheborg]

Fetterman puts his state before anything else. He has the dates of five murders that occurred in the town since he was elected mayor tattooed on his right arm. He's also 6 foot 8 has eyes that stare into the very core of your soul. Even if he wasn't willing to die for the Quaker State, he'd be a bit too imposing to hit with the vanity crowd.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harris not charismatic? What?

Anyways, she'd win this matchup.

[free my dawg]

Fetterman is unexpectedly strong, but Harris wins (Fetterman hack)

[Galeel]

Probably very similar to 2016, both in terms of margin and in where each candidate does well

[Kuumo]

I can't really see anyone defeating Vice President Harris in a primary unless the Biden/Harris administration is seen as a disaster by a sizable percentage of Democrats. Fetterman would be one of the strongest possible challengers, but Bernie 2016 is probably his ceiling in terms of popular support and delegates.

[Alben Barkley]

And while he is a proponent of fighting climate change head-on, he has also advocated a transition to a carbon-free future that takes into account the impact on places like rural Pennsylvania — one that goes beyond asking miners to learn to code. He has said previously that Democrats need to “get honest” about energy and advocated for a “bipartisan Marshall Plan” to battle climate change.

Fetterman probably wouldn't win, but he has my vote.

[The Mikado]

Fetterman winning a Senate seat in 2022 and turning around and saying "I'm running for President" a week later is...tricky.

[Alben Barkley]

Fetterman winning a Senate seat in 2022 and turning around and saying "I'm running for President" a week later is...tricky.

Realistically he'd be better off waiting until 2028 or 2032. 2028 if Kamala runs and loses, or if Biden wins a second term instead. 2032 if Kamala wins two terms starting in 2024.

[S019]

Easy vote for Harris and she'd win

[kwabbit]

How'd Fetterman become so popular around here? He seems pretty obscure but he has a lot of fans.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

How'd Fetterman become so popular around here? He seems pretty obscure but he has a lot of fans.

He's been something of a meme for election nerds for a while, given that he got some mention in the national press since he was elected Mayor of Braddock in the mid oughts, when he ran for Senate in 2016, and during his LG campaign in 18. Political nerds remember the 6'7" biker mayor guy even if you only mention him once or twice. In his term as LG he's been unusually visible for the position.

He's been getting a lot of national media recently, introducing him to a wider audience, with a pitch about the integrity of PA elections and pushing back on accusations of voter fraud.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I absolutely love Fetterman!

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Would Fetterman Vs. Harris be the biggest height disparity between candidates?

[Lambsbread]

Fetterman would be great and I'd vote for him easily, but he does not have the national name recognition required to beat Kamala. It would go pretty similarly to Clinton '16 but maybe with Fetterman doing worse

[Not Me, Us]

Fetterman is the best politician in PA, and one of the best overall. I'd strongly support him, but there's no way he'd win. Like others have said, Bernie 2016 is his ceiling, but he probably wouldn't even do that well.

[Xing]

Fetterman is great, but he isn't beating Harris, and would be better off running statewide in 2022, and then if he wins, considering a run in 2028 or later. I think Harris's win would be somewhere between Clinton '16 and Biden '20.