The only reason I can think of for Hogan to run is to keep himself relevant for an equally futile 2024 national run. He will be Bullocked/Bredesened but possibly do worse than either of them-I can't see Hogan winning over the Maryland Trumpists anymore.
Likely D, but Dems are going to be forced to burn lots of money here then (ugh)
But unfortunately this will indeed be a very negative side effect. Maybe it'll help convince the party to not spread themselves thin by wasting time contesting Florida, Iowa, and Ohio if they absolutely have to spend money here.