This is my first timeline which I just sort of improvised on a whim. Basically my idea is to go as far into the future as we can imagine and just take turns building off the previous person's entry. You can make yours as short or long and go into as little or as much detail as you want and either just do the midterms or the midterms and presidential election. My only rule is that you limit yourself to one four year period at maximum.
I apologize if this is formatted badly, i'm new to this. For my electoral map I used the one on this site and the projected 2024 EV totals from 270towin.com
President Joe Biden (D)-Delaware
Vice President Kamala Harris (D)-California: 235
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R)-South Carolina
Governor Chris Sununu (R)-New Hampshire: 303
Going into the 2024 election Democrats seemed to have the upper hand. The economy had improved significantly following the rapid vaccine rollout which opinion polling showed the Biden administration received credit for. This combined with ongoing GOP infighting allowed Democrats to regain control of the senate in 2022*. In Georgia the Republican Party was badly damaged as many Trump loyalists, still holding onto simmering anger against Brian Kemp from 2020 stayed home or voted for third party candidates allowing Stacey Abrams to win the gubernatorial election and Stacey Evans to narrowly eek out a win in the senate runoff. Democrats also picked up seats in Wisconsin where Scott Walker's attempt at a political comeback proved disastrous, Pennsylvania where John Fetterman ran a vigorous campaign bolstered by the support of progressive groups nationwide and North Carolina where Lara Trump's defeat proved that the Trump name may have outlived it's shelf life. The composition of the House of Representatives changed little with a net gain of three seats for the Democrats.
The Democratic majority brought many longstanding tensions out in the open between progressives and centrists which were only amplified as Nancy Pelosi's successor as speaker, Tim Ryan was openly hostile to the left. With President Biden putting speculation to bed over his presidential ambitions and announcing his intention to run many on the left began seeking out a candidate to challenge him in the primary. Although she had initially been reluctant Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (having lost her seat to redistricting in 2022) ceded to pressure. Although she ran a vigorous campaign the powers of incumbency proved too much to overcome and her campaign was overshadowed by that of Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard ran surprisingly well in open primary states, even winning a plurality in several and surprised many pundits by her ability to capitalize on a growing rift between Trump loyalists and the GOP through what many argued amounted to implicit pandering to Q-Anon conspiracy theories.
The crossover of many conservative anti-establishment voters into the Democratic primary had an effect on the Republican side as well. Tucker Carlson's campaign fizzled out quickly. With Fox News's ratings having declined considerably many suspected that his moment had passed. Dan Craneshaw generated some early enthusiasm but quickly proved to just be flavor of the month. Tom Cotton proved to be a dud, offering little other then saber rattling over China which no longer stood out in the party. Ultimately all Craneshaw, Cotton and Carlson ended up doing was taking votes away from Josh Hawley, the one candidate in their lane who many thought actually stood a chance at winning. Hawley ran a respectable campaign and was initially seen as the frontrunner but bottomed out after failing to finish above third place in Iowa or New Hampshire. Marco Rubio, favorite candidate of the "reversalists" attracted surprising crossover support from some former Bernie Sanders loyalists but his past support of immigration reform hurt him with the GOP base. Mike Pence ran well with evangelicals but few others. The one candidate who was able to capitalize on these divisions within the party was Nikki Haley. Although her narrow win in South Carolina wasn't particularly impressive wasn't particularly impressive given that it was a plurality of 35% in her home state her advisors had so successfully managed to downplay expectations that it generated considerable buzz. She followed up with victories in Florida, Nevada and did respectably on Super Tuesday. Although the primary battle continued until June she ultimately secured the nomination in what many considered a similar dynamic to 2016 as the anti-Haley vote was bitterly divided.
Meanwhile President Biden's approval ratings were in a tailspin. Following a weak holiday season in 2023 many retailers began laying off employees en masse which combined with an escalating trade war with China sent the US economy into a full-scale recession by the summer. The coalition which had elected him in 2020 was also beginning to deteriorate. On the left the primary brought many longstanding tensions to the surface as many who had never fully been comfortable with the Biden Administration now found their animosity boiling over into full-blown hatred. On the right many who had been involved in the Lincoln Project had grown increasingly critical for what they saw as a weakness on foreign policy, particularly his tepid response to the South China Sea incident in 2022 and were more comfortable with returning to the Republican Party with Haley as the nominee. Despite all these factors many thought that Biden still had a stronger chance then he should have with many #NeverHaley Republicans backing the third party candidacy of Marjorie Taylor Greene. Ultimately these proved to be false hopes for Democrats and unfounded fears for Republicans. The RNC was successful in keeping Greene off the ballot in all but eleven states through legal challenges from state parties. Only in her home state of Georgia did she succeed in damaging Haley, winning 5% of the vote statewide and allowing Biden to hang onto the state despite preforming worse overall then he had in 2020. Ultimately Democrats were hurt more by third parties as many progressives and younger voters who might otherwise have supported Biden cast ballots for either the Sharpe-Chafee Libertarian ticket or Nina Turner's quixotic Green Party candidacy. The Haley campaign was able to thread a tight needle, winning over many Trumpites with targeted advertising pointing to her service in his administration without alienating the independents and suburban Republicans they were trying to win back with open arms. Ultimately the debates proved to be the deciding factor as Biden alternated between seeming out of it and coming across as sexist and condescending. All of these factors paid off, allowing her to win a close but respectable victory. She nearly erased the gender gap, won over 40% of the Hispanic vote and peeled back many of the places Democrats had made gains in in 2020 like Kent County, Michigan. Biden had no equivalent luck. Perhaps the biggest personal humiliation was Haley narrowly winning his home county of Lackawanna, making him the first Democrat to lose it since Walter Mondale. Democrats fared even worse down ballot as the GOP managed to take back both houses. The senate was particularly disastrous as Republicans picked up eight seats.
*Warnock won special election, Ossof lost.
