General synopsis: The midterms go a little better for Republicans than expected, with Republicans netting 4 governorships and 4 senate seats.
In the governor races, Republicans pull upset wins in Oregon and Minnesota due to the presence of third party candidates on the ballot. Republicans narrowly defeat Sisolak in Nevada as the Reid machine collapses and Evers in Wisconsin as the Walker machine brings Republicans back to life in the state. Kansas is a landslide for Republicans as the state returns to its normal partisan lean. Mastriano and Lake win modestly in Pennsylvania and Arizona as those races have no incumbent, despite being controversial candidates. Democrats narrowly hold on in New Mexico, Michigan, and Maine. Illinois is unexpectedly close but Pritzker wins by a modest margin.
The senate map is more predictable. Democrats Kelly and Warnock narrowly lose in Arizona and Georgia despite being strong candidates due to the national environment. Hassan, too, loses in New Hampshire by less than a percentage point. Fetterman comes close to winning in Pennsylvania and outperforms Shapiro but also falls short. North Carolina and Wisconsin are modest wins for Republicans. Colorado and Oregon are unexpectedly close.
