Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
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Canis
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« on: December 01, 2020, 06:31:12 PM »

Governor

Senate

If Sununu runs for Senate NH gov moves to Tilt D and NH sen moves to tossup  if he doesn't NH sen moves to safe D
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2020, 04:16:39 AM »

Likely: Not competitive at this point, but has the potential to become competitive

Lean: Competitive but one party has an advantage

Tilt: Competitive but one party has a slight advantage

Toss-up : The most competitive races which either party has a good chance of winning


SENATE



GOVERNOR

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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2020, 10:51:39 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2020, 03:18:04 PM by RussFeingoldWasRobbed »

Senate
Safe D
CA
CO
CT
HI
MD- Likely D with Hogan
IL- Likely D without Duckworth
OR- Likely D without Wyden
VT- Lean D with Scott and not leahy, Likely D with both

Tilt D
NH(Tossup w/Sununu, Lean D without)

Tossup
AZ
GA
NV
PA

Tilt R
NC

Lean R
WI

Likely R
AK
FL

Govs
Safe D
CA
CO
IL
HI
MD(Open)(FLIP)
NJ
NY
VA

Likely D
CT- Lean D without Lamont
OR
RI
Lean D
ME
MN
NM
NV

Tilt D
KS
MI

PTU
AZ
GA
PA
WI

Lean R
AK

Likely R
FL- DeSantis
Safe R
MA- Likely D without Baker
NH- Tossup without Sununu
VT- Likely D without Scott
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2020, 02:09:16 PM »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2020, 05:08:16 PM »

Senate:

Safe D: CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA
Likely D: None
Lean D: NV
Toss-Up: AZ, PA
Lean R: GA (moves to Toss-Up if Warnock wins), NH (moves to Toss-Up or possibly Lean D if Sununu doesn't run), NC, WI
Likely R: FL
Safe R: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MO, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Governor:

Safe D: CA, HI, NY, VA
Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, NM, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NV
Toss-Up: AZ, GA, KS, MI, NH (moves to Safe R if Sununu runs), PA, WI
Lean R: FL
Likely R: AK, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, IA, MA (moves to Likely D if Baker doesn't run) NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, VT (moves to Lean D if Scott doesn't run), WY
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2020, 02:41:36 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2020, 03:28:41 PM by Mike Madigan for Illinois House Speaker! »



MO to Safe, if Blunt retires, VT to Safe, if Scott doesn't run, VT to Lean D, if he does, GA should also be tossup, I copied the 2016 map and forgot to change that one



NH to Likely R, if Sununu runs again, MA to Lean D, if Baker retires, VT to Safe D, if Scott retires
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2020, 06:13:18 AM »

These Predictions are based on Ducey and Adam LAXALT running and neither of them even said they were running. The WI rating is so wrong, Ron Johnson barely beat Russ Feingold and got help from Gary Johnson voters and so did Pat Toomey

Ron Johnson and Pat Toomey seat are gonna get blanched and NC is at stake
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2020, 12:40:33 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2020, 01:07:07 PM by lfromnj »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.
Switch Pa and GA.

Also Alaska isn't a primary its a weird RCV + California system mix.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2020, 08:27:04 PM »

2022 is gonna be base Election not an R wave, PA, WI, NV, AZ and NH will go D, watch you will see
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2020, 10:22:04 AM »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.
Switch Pa and GA.

Also Alaska isn't a primary its a weird RCV + California system mix.

I basically view PA and GA as the same chance. Just a slight dip for Pennsylvania initially because there won't be an incumbent. In a year from now, we could be talking about Lean R PA and Toss-Up Georgia. I'm not really concerned about it right now. As far as Alaska, I'm not too informed on their electoral systems but I just think Murkowski's bad relationship with the R base in Alaska has the potential to cause issues regardless of what's in place.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2020, 05:22:18 AM »

Just to note the 291/47 haven't been cracked since 2016 Benghazi Hillary and Spoiler Gary Johnson and Nate Silver 538 is the 278 blue wall, it's not my methodology, it's his
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2020, 11:39:02 PM »

Republicans easily win all Democratic held Senate seats except Hawaii, California, Oregon, New York, and Washington.
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2020, 12:45:17 AM »

Republicans easily win all Democratic held Senate seats except Hawaii, California, Oregon, New York, and Washington.

Honestly, if you're predicting that strong a Republican wave, I'd give them Washington and Oregon too.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2020, 09:35:56 PM »

Republicans easily win all Democratic held Senate seats except Hawaii, California, Oregon, New York, and Washington.

Honestly, if you're predicting that strong a Republican wave, I'd give them Washington and Oregon too.
Ron Wyden is a strong incumbent who survived in tough years for the Democrats, so he should be ok in 2022 (though he probably only wins by 10% against Greg Walden). Also, I donít have Washington voting Republican until Ron DeSantisí landslide reelection bid against AOC in 2028, so it remains in Democratic hands in 2022, albeit by a reduced margin when compared to past elections. The New York Senate seat I think could be interesting in 2028, as New York probably narrowly votes for Ron DeSantis for reelection in 2028.
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« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2020, 12:03:06 AM »

I'm also not going to bother with Governor's ratings, but I'm willing to share my Senate ratings.

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Lean R (though I'd be surprised if Lisa Murkowski ends up running.)

Arizona: Lean R(flip)

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Safe D

Colorado: Lean D

Connecticut: Likely D

Florida: Lean R

Georgia: Lean R (possible flip if Warnock wins next month)

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Indiana: Likely R (I could drop it to lean R if Pete Buttigeig jumps in)

Iowa: Lean R

Kansas: Safe R (Though if Laura Kelly runs here instead of for reelection as Governor, I can put Kansas at Lean R at worst)

Kentucky: Safe R

Louisiana: Safe R

Maryland: Safe D (though if Larry Hogan actually runs, I'd have it as Likely D)

Missouri: Likely R

Nevada: Tossup

New Hampshire: Tossup (if Chris Sunnunu follows through and runs, it's Likely R)

New York: Safe D

North Carolina: Lean R

North Dakota: Safe R

Ohio: Likely R

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Safe D

Pennsylvania: Tossup

South Carolina: Lean R

South Dakota: Safe R

Utah: Safe R

Vermont: Safe D (though if Phil Scott runs, it's Likely D, and if Scott runs and Pat Leahy doesn't, it's Lean D )

Washington: Safe D

Wisconsin: Tossup
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« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2020, 06:08:37 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2021, 10:36:03 PM by neostassenite31 »

Senate Ratings (with brand new 2016-2020 PVIs thanks to Squidward500)

Alabama (R+15): Safe R

Alaska (R+8): Safe R

Arizona (R+2): Tossup with D incumbent

Arkansas (R+16): Safe R

California (D+14): Safe D

Colorado (D+3): Lean D

Connecticut (D+7): Safe D

Florida (R+3): Likely R

Georgia (R+3): Tossup

Hawaii (D+14): Safe D

Idaho: (R+19): Safe R

Illinois (D+7): Safe D

Indiana (R+11): Safe R

Iowa (R+6): Safe R

Kansas (R+11): Safe R

Kentucky (R+16): Safe R

Louisiana (R+12): Safe R

Maryland (D+14): Safe D

Missouri (R+11): Safe R

Nevada (EVEN): Tossup

New Hampshire (EVEN): Tossup

New York (D+10): Safe D

North Carolina (R+3): Likely R

North Dakota (R+20): Safe R

Ohio (R+6): Safe R

Oklahoma (R+20): Safe R

Oregon (D+6): Safe D

Pennsylvania (R+2): Tossup
 
South Carolina (R+8): Safe R

South Dakota (R+16): Safe R

Utah (R+13): Safe R

Vermont (D+15): Safe D

Washington (D+8): Safe D

Wisconsin (R+2): Lean R with R incumbent

This follows the conventional rule that D/R>+5 seats are by default rated "safe" except in exceptional circumstances
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2020, 12:10:08 AM »

FL, OH, and IA are Safe R for both.
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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2020, 08:43:11 AM »

Senate:

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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2020, 01:18:01 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2020, 02:53:34 PM by Alcibiades »

Senate:


Notes: NH is lean D without Sununu and lean R with him; I think it is more likely than not that he will run. VT is safe D without Scott, likely D in Scott vs Leahy, and lean D with Scott if Leahy retires.

Governor:


Notes: NH and VT are both safe R if their incumbents seek re-election, and tilt D and lean D respectively if they donít.
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« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2020, 12:04:50 PM »
« Edited: December 27, 2020, 12:13:45 PM by Laki »

AL: Shelby retires. R wins
AK: Lean R, but D's might take it. Murkowski is vulnerable for a primary challenge, and that won't make the general easier. If she loses the primary, all possibilities are open. I expect the environment to be tough, but internal division and Alaska's distance might make it considerably more left to the nation, perhaps D+10 which could be enough.
AZ: Lean D. I think Kelly is going to be a strong incumbent, who has the capacity to survive the red wave.
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D but with stronger opposition than expected from the progressive wing.
CO: Likely D. It's going to be a lot closer, but Bennett is likely fine. They're not fond of the Trump era GOP, and it will keep trend D.
CT: Safe D
FL: Likely R. I suspect this will be a blow out. Tough environment for D's, strong incumbent(s), and most importantly a weak bench + organization
GA: toss-up. Let's await the results of the run-offs before we can make a guess, but I believe GA will be to the left of the national average, and Abrams might run again for governor.
HI: Safe D. Even Tulsi has no shot here.
ID: Safe R
IL: Safe D. Strong incumbent will keep it safe even in a R+10 environment
IN: Safe R
IA: Lean R. (Incumbent could retire now. Finkenauer/Scholten/Vilsack will likely not win in a tough environment, but this race might be open. Likely with Chuck
KS: Safe R
KY: Safe R
LA: Safe R
MD: Likely D. Hogan and a very favourable environment, could make this similar to MA 2010 or IL 2010. Polarization and racial divide would make it more unlikely than in those cases, but this far ahead, not safe. I could be seeing noise though
MO: Safe R
NV: Toss-up. CCM might be vulnerable in the environment I expect, but she'll do better than the national average.
NH: Lean R, possibly even likely R. Sununu will likely win. If Sununu doesn't run, i still think an Ayotte tier candidate is favoured. Hassan isn't exactly a strong incumbent, and midterms + this environment + (very) strong challenger will make it tough to overcome.
NY: Safe D but just like in CA i expect a primary challenge to gain traction. AOC won't do it though.
NC: Open election (and now was the moment to retire). Lean R with the environment I expect.
ND: Safe R
OH: Likely R. Could become safe, but I want to know who is going to run for the Democrats
OK: Safe R
OR: Likely D. I won't rule out an upset this far out, but the GOP has a weak bench, this state is hostile to them, and Wyden is probably fine. Borderline MD likely tier
PA: Open election, and Fetterman is a strong candidate. Democrats have several alternatives. Toss-up, but might be lean R because of the environment.
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
UT: Likely R. Almost certainly going to trend left in an tough environment, and I see some candidates who might make this a bit closer. It's borderline safe though.
VT: Lean D. This might be very vulnerable in a tough environment, esp. if Leahy retires and Phil Scott runs.
WA: Likely D. Similar to Oregon's rating. This might be D+8/+9 at the end, but there is potential for an upset, as Murray is a weak incumbent.
WI: Lean R. Could be toss-up, likely R or even be Safe R. I think the GOP keeps this one



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Laki
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« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2020, 12:37:40 PM »

I expect a Lean R environment. But in a Lean D environment, the GOP would certainly be on the defence. Worth to note that if Sununu wins, and Trump wins in 2024, he will/might become an independent that caucuses with the Democrats, and if Scott wins, he will switch party affilation to the Democrats, and potentially even become quite liberal over time esp. on social issues (like Earl Warren did in the SC)
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UWS
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« Reply #21 on: December 28, 2020, 08:42:16 AM »

AL: Shelby retires. R wins
AK: Lean R, but D's might take it. Murkowski is vulnerable for a primary challenge, and that won't make the general easier. If she loses the primary, all possibilities are open. I expect the environment to be tough, but internal division and Alaska's distance might make it considerably more left to the nation, perhaps D+10 which could be enough.
AZ: Lean D. I think Kelly is going to be a strong incumbent, who has the capacity to survive the red wave.
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D but with stronger opposition than expected from the progressive wing.
CO: Likely D. It's going to be a lot closer, but Bennett is likely fine. They're not fond of the Trump era GOP, and it will keep trend D.
CT: Safe D
FL: Likely R. I suspect this will be a blow out. Tough environment for D's, strong incumbent(s), and most importantly a weak bench + organization
GA: toss-up. Let's await the results of the run-offs before we can make a guess, but I believe GA will be to the left of the national average, and Abrams might run again for governor.
HI: Safe D. Even Tulsi has no shot here.
ID: Safe R
IL: Safe D. Strong incumbent will keep it safe even in a R+10 environment
IN: Safe R
IA: Lean R. (Incumbent could retire now. Finkenauer/Scholten/Vilsack will likely not win in a tough environment, but this race might be open. Likely with Chuck
KS: Safe R
KY: Safe R
LA: Safe R
MD: Likely D. Hogan and a very favourable environment, could make this similar to MA 2010 or IL 2010. Polarization and racial divide would make it more unlikely than in those cases, but this far ahead, not safe. I could be seeing noise though
MO: Safe R
NV: Toss-up. CCM might be vulnerable in the environment I expect, but she'll do better than the national average.
NH: Lean R, possibly even likely R. Sununu will likely win. If Sununu doesn't run, i still think an Ayotte tier candidate is favoured. Hassan isn't exactly a strong incumbent, and midterms + this environment + (very) strong challenger will make it tough to overcome.
NY: Safe D but just like in CA i expect a primary challenge to gain traction. AOC won't do it though.
NC: Open election (and now was the moment to retire). Lean R with the environment I expect.
ND: Safe R
OH: Likely R. Could become safe, but I want to know who is going to run for the Democrats
OK: Safe R
OR: Likely D. I won't rule out an upset this far out, but the GOP has a weak bench, this state is hostile to them, and Wyden is probably fine. Borderline MD likely tier
PA: Open election, and Fetterman is a strong candidate. Democrats have several alternatives. Toss-up, but might be lean R because of the environment.
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
UT: Likely R. Almost certainly going to trend left in an tough environment, and I see some candidates who might make this a bit closer. It's borderline safe though.
VT: Lean D. This might be very vulnerable in a tough environment, esp. if Leahy retires and Phil Scott runs.
WA: Likely D. Similar to Oregon's rating. This might be D+8/+9 at the end, but there is potential for an upset, as Murray is a weak incumbent.
WI: Lean R. Could be toss-up, likely R or even be Safe R. I think the GOP keeps this one





If Doug Ducey runs for Senate, that woukd likely make it more difficult for Kelly.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2020, 10:28:58 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2020, 10:32:46 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Likely D AZ, NV, NH
Pure Tossups WI, PA, NC and IA if Grassley retires
Likely R FL


Everything else is safe

Gov races

Likely D CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, ME, MI, MN, NV, NM, NY, OR, RI
Tossups AZ, KS, MD, NH if Sununu runs for Senate, PA, WI
Likely R FL, GA, IA, MA, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WY
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AGA
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« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2021, 07:48:14 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2021, 08:39:54 PM by AGA »



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Canis
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« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2021, 05:01:15 PM »

Updated no tossup ratings
Governor

Senate

Still very much subject to change seeing as how were pretty far out from it
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