How will America be in 2050

[Josh/Devilman88]

I heard on the news the other day, buy 2050 Whites, Blacks and Hispanics will equal out  the population. With in the South mostly Whites and Hispanics. Same with the West. But in the Northeast and Midwest Whites and Blacks.  How do you think the states will change? Will solid Republican States go to be solid Democrat states. Or the other way around. What do you think?

[Lunar]

The old North South lines electorally won't be as strong.  The Southwest will be a huge region that one of the parties will control.

[Josh/Devilman88]

maybe something like this...

[Nation]

Why the heck would Utah and Idaho become Democratic strongholds, and Rhode Island and Maryland move into the GOP column? Will all the residents in Baltimore City and Prince George's County just suddenly move away?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Why the heck would Utah and Idaho become Democratic strongholds, and Rhode Island and Maryland move into the GOP column? Will all the residents in Baltimore City and Prince George's County just suddenly move away?

Because of the hispanice voters... They will be mostly Democratic. Because the Democrats will win them over like they did the Blacks.

[Lunar]

Maybe he is assuming a platform switch.

My random shot in the dark:

[Josh/Devilman88]

yours is better.. maybe add nc for the dems...

[The Duke]

Texas will stay Republican.  Most hispanics in Texas are significantly more conservativue than in other states.  They all come from places like Sonora and Chihuaha, strongholds of Vincente Fox and the PAN.  In California, they tend to come from southern Mexico and Central America, and have socialist tendencies.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Maybe he is assuming a platform switch.

My random shot in the dark:

what is the gray?

[classical liberal]

don't forget reapportionment:

[Platypus]

Northeast becomes slightly more right wing, southwest becomes slightly more leftwing.

[??????????]

How did you do future EV predictions?

[ilikeverin]

I think Indiana will become more of a tossup...

but that's just me and my optimism

[??????????]

The US will not exist in 2050 or we will be in a major civil upheavel by then. Think 1968 x 10.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Indiana will become more of a tossup...

but that's just me and my optimism

doubtful. it's probably the most static state in terms of politics, has been Republican since it's inception and always has been since.

Illinois is trending TOWARD the Democrats so I don't see how you could put it as a tossup.

[??????????]

This is how I think the map will look. The EV numbers will change of course. I see a soutwestern shift.

[Michael Z]

Is it just the way people vote which is going to change, or will the parties themselves change in their outlook? Bearing in mind how the GOP and the Democrats have changed over the years.

Btw StatesRight, I share your worry that America may face some social upheaval within the next fifty years, mainly because the American electorate seems to be more polarised than at any time since the civil war.

[??????????]

Is it just the way people vote which is going to change, or will the parties themselves change in their outlook? Bearing in mind how the GOP and the Democrats have changed over the years.

Btw StatesRight, I share your worry that America may face some social upheaval within the next fifty years, mainly because the American electorate seems to be more polarised than at any time since the civil war.

At least this time around we won't have the threat of you fellows or the French taking us back. I don't know if it will be violence or just a general malaise that leads to states deciding to break off. Either way I see it as a inevitable thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is how I think the map will look. The EV numbers will change of course. I see a soutwestern shift.

why do NJ, Delaware and Maryland switch?

[??????????]

That scenario is almost a best case for the GOP. I think Maryland will go back to its southern roots. Delware will follow its friendly neighbor to the west and Jersey is trending GOP.

[Josh/Devilman88]

don't forget reapportionment:

How did you change the numbers?

[12th Doctor]

I was going to make a map, but it is damn near impossible to do.  The two parties will shift along with the rest of the country.  Assuming the Hispanic vote will go Dem makes no sense especially when we are looking 46 years down the road.  Things will change, so predicting it is near impossible.  I'll make some EV predictions, but even those won't be 100% accturate because changes in technology and the economy that we cannot forsee will affect the population movement.

[12th Doctor]

Let's see how this looks.

P.S.  I made some changes.  I took a couple of votes off Califonia and Mass. and added them to Minnesota.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Let's see how this looks.

Yes that is about right. North Carolina pop. Is growing very fast.

[bullmoose88]

The other problem is, 45-46 years is a long time...you can't make projections that far into the future.

To say Pennsylvania/New York will continue to lose electoral votes at the rate its doing so (2 evs per decade) is risky business. While the growth rate in PA is small...its on the rise...while in some sunbelt the growth rate has already reached its maximum.

at best you can predict 20 years down the road...and even then its tough.

I'm not even sure how demographics will change the 2008 election...let alone 2050...