Obama's Other Running Mate Candidates Versus Trump 2020

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's say that everything in our current timeline remained as is except that Obama chooses one of his other prospective running mates instead of Biden: so they succeed in 2008 and 2012, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets nominated in 2016 and loses to Trump, etc.

That person then ends up being nominated by the Democratic Party to challenge President Trump in 2020 like Biden did. How would they perform compared to Biden?

As a reminder these politicians were all considered towards the end of the selection process before Biden was ultimately chosen: Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Tim Kaine (who I guess wouldn't have been picked by Clinton in this 2016, so that's different too.), Jack Reed, Bill Richardson, and Kathleen Sebelius.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Vice President Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) / Fmr. HUD Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX) ✓

Sebelius is the only one who gets Harris off the ticket.

[bagelman]

*Evan Bayh: might lose, although there's still the possibility of a bare minimum victory

*Chris Dodd: loses, may drive Obama to defeat in 2012 but probably not

*Tim Kaine: loses

*Jack Reed: don't know

*Bill Richardson: Obama loses in 2012.

*Kathleen Sebelius: wins

[jmsstnyng]

Jack Reed: I think he would have won. He'd have the boring/back to normal approach similar to Biden. He would likely pick a woman as VP. He's no drama/no nonsense versus Trump's colorful persona.

Ted Strickland: I think Strickland would have been a strong VP for Obama. He's from the heartland, but he wouldn't have had the flaws of Biden.

Kathleen Sebelius: Her biggest blemish is her time as HHS secretary, so she would be a decent nominee in '20. I'll lean towards a win for her. She would've won Arizona, Michigan, and maybe Georgia and PA.

Evan Bayh: He's boring, but I think Trump could paint him as a dynastic Kerry-esque elite. I'm not saying he is one, but I think he could be painted as a DC insider too easily (and without the personality of Biden). In '20, though, I think he would win AZ, MI, and PA or GA.

Chris Dodd: He'd lose. I do not see any appeal to this man.

Bill Richardson: Assuming his political baggage does not exist, he would win.

[brucejoel99]

Let's say that everything in our current timeline remained as is except that Obama chooses one of his other prospective running mates instead of Biden: so they succeed in 2008 and 2012, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets nominated in 2016 and loses to Trump, etc.

Well, there's the rub: does this mean that whomever Obama chooses will also become a sort-of political pop-culture icon over the course of their Vice Presidency, or would that have been something that only somebody like Biden with his personality was uniquely able to do? Because I think that could very well play a significant role in terms of said choice's chances (or lack thereof) when the time comes.