If you had seen this 10 years ago, what would it reveal about the state of our politics?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What would be your initial reaction? What would've happened from 2010-2020? Would anything have been unimaginable just a decade ago? Where do you think America would be at? What would be the state of our politics? Would you be happy or unhappy with the results?

[Hammy]

I would probably assume Biden ran and won in 2016 and this was his reelection bid.

[bagelman]

The Republicans have gone off the deep end for real. They lost against VP Biden in 2016 and blew a good shot at finally winning the White House by nominating an old Birther. Trump very narrowly flips Ohio due to continuing economic decline and outsourcing of manufacturing jobs during the 2010s, and I guess the same happens in Iowa probably due to Monsanto or maybe farm prices. But Biden's miracle win in Georgia, stronger flipping of Arizona, and large margins in states like WI and PA allow Democrats to control the White House for a 4th term!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yeah, I'd assume the GOP had shat the bed in a referendum on Biden. I'd also probably assume that Jerry Brown had stepped down in 2014 and Harris had succeeded him as Governor before getting put on a Presidential ticket during her first term Palin-style in 2016. My guesses for what the issues were (except COVID, obviously) probably would have been about accurate, though--race relations, globalization, regional inequities.

[ilikeverin]

The interesting thing is that this would have made more sense 9 years ago than 10 years ago; from what I can see, Trump really started beating the birtherism drum in 2011 or so. The US of 2010 would have been more like, "Trump? Why?", while the US of 2011 would have said something like, "Oh no, oh no, that is not a good sign at all." 2011 Atlasia would probably have a pretty good sense of what the modern Republican party is with Trump as the nominee.

I'd imagine, just like folks of today, 2010 Atlasians would be more surprised by Florida, although Iowa may have been a surprise, too. ("It must have been close.")

I would probably assume Biden ran and won in 2016 and this was his reelection bid.

Agreed.

[dw93]

Obama loses to Romney in 2012, then Romney has a bad term and loses to Biden in 2016. Biden has a solid term and all the Republicans with serious ambition sit 2020 out and the GOP ends up nominating its version of George McGovern.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden became President after he ran and won in 2016, defeating President Romney (even back then it was always obvious that Romney would probably be the Republicans' next nominee). That defeat then made the GOP finally come around to accepting Trump as a nominee after he rode his Birther gambit into right wing stardom. (Actually nevermind, he started with that in 2011, so I wouldn't actually have had any idea why Trump got the nomination of a major party at the time-maybe the whole businessman thing?). Regardless, Trump would still have finally succeeded at getting a party's nomination for President after decades of trying. Perhaps he tried it in the Democratic Party four years prior.

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, I'd assume the GOP had shat the bed in a referendum on Biden. I'd also probably assume that Jerry Brown had stepped down in 2014 and Harris had succeeded him as Governor before getting put on a Presidential ticket during her first term Palin-style in 2016. My guesses for what the issues were (except COVID, obviously) probably would have been about accurate, though--race relations, globalization, regional inequities.

Alternatively, then-79 year-old Dianne Feinstein steps down in 2012 & Harris succeeds her as Senator after just 2 years as AG (Hawley-style) before getting put on the presidential ticket 4 years into her 1st term as a Senator (so Harris-style, come to think of it).

[Ferguson97]

I would probably assume Biden ran and won in 2016 and this was his reelection bid.

[BaldEagle1991]

I would probably assume Biden ran and won in 2016 and this was his reelection bid.

This plus, when did Trump move to Florida?

[Non Swing Voter]

I mean, it's not all that surprising.  It reveals that not much has changed, just incremental changes based on demographic trends. 

If you compare that to the 2000 map it's fairly similar, with Democrats expanding on the edges of the southwest and south and republicans winning back Iowa. 

If you compare it to the 2008 map it's also fairly similar, with Democrats holding their gains in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and adding Georgia and Arizona to the mix while losing Ohio/Iowa plus North Carolina/Florida.

Florida would probably be the most surprising as you wouldn't expect Democrats to make those kinds of gains in Georgia and Arizona while losing Florida, which at the time was a real bellwether state. 

[brucejoel99]

If you wanna get deep into the weeds, Trump's portrait might give away that he won in 2016. He wouldn't have had such an official-looking portrait taken in front of the American flag otherwise.

Come to think of it, the (b) after Florida might give it away too (or, at the very least, give away that he'd previously been nominated while living in another state), given how the Nixon CA/NY situation was handled on the 1968 election's wikipedia page.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If you wanna get deep into the weeds, Trump's portrait might give away that he won in 2016. He wouldn't have had such an official-looking portrait taken in front of the American flag otherwise.

Come to think of it, the (b) after Florida might give it away too (or, at the very least, give away that he'd previously been nominated while living in another state), given how the Nixon CA/NY situation was handled on the 1968 election's wikipedia page.

That isn't his official portrait though, is it? I recall that image being used in 2016 before he won.

[brucejoel99]

If you wanna get deep into the weeds, Trump's portrait might give away that he won in 2016. He wouldn't have had such an official-looking portrait taken in front of the American flag otherwise.

Come to think of it, the (b) after Florida might give it away too (or, at the very least, give away that he'd previously been nominated while living in another state), given how the Nixon CA/NY situation was handled on the 1968 election's wikipedia page.

That isn't his official portrait though, is it? I recall that image being used in 2016 before he won.

It's his official presidential portrait, dated Oct. 6, 2017.

[Chips]

I agree with brucejoel99 in that you can look at it and plausibly conclude that Trump won in 2016.

The conclusion I would've made in 2010-2011 if I had seen this was that Obama wins in 2012 and then has a disaster of a second term and then Trump wins in the anger of the moment in 2016 with Trump then having a rather poor presidency as well and loses to the relatively safe candidate Biden. Trends cause Georgia and Arizona to flip while Trump keeps Iowa and Ohio. If I had seen this in 2010, I probably would've concluded Trump won through a combination of Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota as well as both Nebraska-2 and Maine-2 in 2016.

[7,052,770]

If you wanna get deep into the weeds, Trump's portrait might give away that he won in 2016. He wouldn't have had such an official-looking portrait taken in front of the American flag otherwise.

Come to think of it, the (b) after Florida might give it away too (or, at the very least, give away that he'd previously been nominated while living in another state), given how the Nixon CA/NY situation was handled on the 1968 election's wikipedia page.

Also that's Biden's official VP portrait taken in 2013, and if he were an incumbent, he'd presumably have a more recent photo.

(Note that in the article today it shows Biden's official 2021 presidential photo, with the off-center tie most cropped out.)

[Skill and Chance]

I would probably assume Biden ran and won in 2016 and this was his reelection bid.

This plus, when did Trump move to Florida?

Well, he has spent part of the year at Mar-A-Lago for decades and Florida residency would obviously be more conducive to his political ambitions as a Republican than NYC.  If I saw this after the 2010 election, I would assume Trump moved to Florida and won the governorship or the senate seat in 2018, then ran against incumbent Biden.  This would also go a long way to explaining R Florida vs. D GA/AZ from a 2010 perspective!

[Agonized-Statism]

The BP oil spill was ten times the disaster it actually was, causing Obama to issue a moratorium on deepwater drilling in US waters. This, and a federal response that deems some parts of the South as more worthy of saving given finite resources, leads to the election of Mitt Romney in 2012. President Romney squanders political capital on a war with Iran. Biden unexpectedly wins the nomination on foreign policy experience and a "down home", "folksy" personality, then narrowly wins the presidency in 2016 on a pledge to end the war in Iran with honor. Come 2020, the Republicans' libertarian wing finally gets a shot with businessman Donald Trump, who suffers from association with President Romney's strict border control measures and just doesn't do it for the South.

[Non Swing Voter]

Honestly a lot of people even back then were predicting Georgia and Arizona would flip eventually. 

The 2016 results were more of an unusual event IMO.

I feel like a map of 2032 that shows Dems winning Texas and losing MI/WI/MN would be totally unsurprising to some now. 

I think the fact that it was two super old white guys would be the most surprising part.

[Independents for Nihilism]

I'd be pretty confused. Like most, I'd figure Biden was the incumbent, but also that Trump was running after getting elected Governor of Florida, or something? As well, that Biden must have been elected by a fair margin, if he was winning re-election with states like AZ and GA, but without FL, IA and OH (which presumably all went to Biden in 2016 but Trump flipped).