Which states will become safe D by 2028?
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  Which states will become safe D by 2028?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: 77 day poll
#1
MI		  
#2
WI		  
#3
PA		  
#4
NV		  
#5
MN		  
#6
AZ		  
#7
GA		  
#8
FL		  
#9
TX		  
#10
NC		  
#11
none of them		  
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Author Topic: Which states will become safe D by 2028?  (Read 1429 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« on: November 29, 2020, 11:56:12 AM »
I am curious as to what states will continue (or begin) to trend D.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2020, 11:57:00 AM »
I think maybe MN, the others I am not so sure. Even MN could be wrong.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2020, 12:21:33 PM »
Georgia.


And Minnesota is already Safe D and has been for decades.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2020, 12:42:25 PM »
Quote from: EastOfEden on November 29, 2020, 12:21:33 PM
Georgia.


And Minnesota is already Safe D and has been for decades.
Yes, I agree, and I think that it will remain so.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2020, 12:45:47 PM »
GA is an interesting state. If it is trending D, what does that say for the Jan 5 runoffs?

Do people feel confident that the Dems have a good shot at flipping the Senate?

If GA becomes safe by 2024 or 2028, what does that say about a possible "lock" on the electoral college?

Will it ever be the case that the Dems lose the popular vote and yet win the electoral college?
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2020, 01:20:49 PM »
Quote from: A day to remember -117 on November 29, 2020, 12:45:47 PM
Will it ever be the case that the Dems lose the popular vote and yet win the electoral college?

I imagine we'll need Texas for that.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2020, 02:03:37 PM »
None of the above, assuming one goes with the conventional definition of safe states being those decided by >10 points while the NPV is <5 points. The failproof definition of safe is probably >15 points relative to a NPV <5 points.

AZ and GA might be safe D candidates for 2032 or 2036 though.  
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2020, 09:00:06 PM »
291/247, CCM, Mark Kelly, Rosen and Sinema has made AZ, NV just as safe as Co, as well as WI, MI, VA, and PA
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Red Wall
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2020, 10:03:38 AM »
Safe D none. But GA and AZ have good trends for dems and Minnesota moves laterally. Overall big metro area domination = good for dems
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2020, 10:38:17 AM »
MN is the only one that will very likely be Safe D.

GA has a chance of maybe being very inelastic, but not really "Safe D", probably stuck at D+4 by then?

AZ has a slim chance, but probably won't be safe D.

The rest have 0 chances whatsoever
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2020, 02:48:57 PM »
AZ and GA, not in terms of margin, but they'd be Likely D in terms of outcome, I guess NV too, but it is arguably already at Likely D, in terms of margin
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Kuumo
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2020, 03:15:05 PM »
Probably just Minnesota and Georgia. Arizona and Nevada will still be winnable for Republicans, and the others will remain noticeably more Republican than the nation as a whole.
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