Interesting tidbit about the Latino vote re: incumbency

[Alcibiades]

1. Where are you taking the Reagan data from? It seems impossible.

2. I don't buy for a second that Hispanic voters only swung by 3 points this year.

A caveat about the Reagan data that ought to be added is that Hispanics only made up 2% of the electorate in 1980 and 3% in 1984, so it is possible that the exit poll numbers suffer from accuracy issues due to a small sample size. Nonetheless, I do not find it implausible that Hispanics swung from 66-34 Carter to 56-37 Mondale, with the small Hispanic electorate back then probably disproportionately well-off and Cuban compared to now. Also, it seems that Mondale’s performance in the RGV was quite underwhelming (although nowhere near as bad as Biden’s).

[Alcibiades]

1. Where are you taking the Reagan data from? It seems impossible.

2. I don't buy for a second that Hispanic voters only swung by 3 points this year.

A caveat about the Reagan data that ought to be added is that Hispanics only made up 2% of the electorate in 1980 and 3% in 1984, so it is possible that the exit poll numbers suffer from accuracy issues due to a small sample size. Nonetheless, I do not find it implausible that Hispanics swung from 66-34 Carter to 56-37 Mondale, with the small Hispanic electorate back then probably disproportionately well-off and Cuban compared to now. Also, it seems that Mondale’s performance in the RGV was quite underwhelming (although nowhere near as bad as Biden’s).

Yeah but Wikipedia says the opposite i.e. 56-37 Carter and 66-34 Mondale.
I agree with you that the "Reagan+13" scenario is not implausible; if anything it is more plausible than the "Reagan-13" scenario, but the latter is what is reported.
Anyway, I take exit polls of Hispanics now with a grain of salt, let alone those of Hispanics in the 1980's.

Oh yes, I got it the wrong way round. Now that is odd...