Interesting tidbit about the Latino vote re: incumbency

[jdk]

So after all the talk about Trumps gains in the Hispanic vote, I went and looked to see how the gains were compared to other recent presidents, and what I found interesting is that every President since Reagan has made significant gains in the Hispanic vote during their re-election campaign, even when they lost support among the overall electorate

Carter's margin of victory was 32 points worse in 1980 than 1976, far worse than the 11 point swing he suffered nationwide overall.  And Mondale did 13 points better against Reagan than Carter did in 1980.  But since then, look at how every incumbent president has done with the Hispanic vote, compared to nationwide

2020 Trump: +3 gain in Latino vote from 2016, -2 among overall electorate, +5 difference
2012 Obama: +8 gain in Latino vote from 2008, -3 among overall electorate +11 difference
2004 Bush +17 gain in Latino vote from 2000, +3 among overall electorate, +11 difference
1996 Clinton +15 gain in Latino vote from 1992, +2 among overall electorate, +13 difference
1992 Bush +4 gain in Latino vote from 1988, -13 among overall electorate, +17 difference

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1. Where are you taking the Reagan data from? It seems impossible. All of them coincide with what's reported on Wikipedia, except that one: the respective Wikipedia pages have exit polls suggesting Reagan lost 13 points with Hispanic voters in 1984.

2. Regardless of exit polls, I don't buy for a second that Hispanic voters only swung by 3 points this year.

[Alcibiades]

1. Where are you taking the Reagan data from? It seems impossible.

2. I don't buy for a second that Hispanic voters only swung by 3 points this year.

A caveat about the Reagan data that ought to be added is that Hispanics only made up 2% of the electorate in 1980 and 3% in 1984, so it is possible that the exit poll numbers suffer from accuracy issues due to a small sample size. Nonetheless, I do not find it implausible that Hispanics swung from 66-34 Carter to 56-37 Mondale, with the small Hispanic electorate back then probably disproportionately well-off and Cuban compared to now. Also, it seems that Mondale’s performance in the RGV was quite underwhelming (although nowhere near as bad as Biden’s).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1. Where are you taking the Reagan data from? It seems impossible.

2. I don't buy for a second that Hispanic voters only swung by 3 points this year.

A caveat about the Reagan data that ought to be added is that Hispanics only made up 2% of the electorate in 1980 and 3% in 1984, so it is possible that the exit poll numbers suffer from accuracy issues due to a small sample size. Nonetheless, I do not find it implausible that Hispanics swung from 66-34 Carter to 56-37 Mondale, with the small Hispanic electorate back then probably disproportionately well-off and Cuban compared to now. Also, it seems that Mondale’s performance in the RGV was quite underwhelming (although nowhere near as bad as Biden’s).

Yeah but Wikipedia says the opposite i.e. 56-37 Carter and 66-34 Mondale.
I agree with you that the "Reagan+13" scenario is not implausible; if anything it is more plausible than the "Reagan-13" scenario, but the latter is what is reported.
Anyway, I take exit polls of Hispanics now with a grain of salt, let alone those of Hispanics in the 1980's.

[Alcibiades]

1. Where are you taking the Reagan data from? It seems impossible.

2. I don't buy for a second that Hispanic voters only swung by 3 points this year.

A caveat about the Reagan data that ought to be added is that Hispanics only made up 2% of the electorate in 1980 and 3% in 1984, so it is possible that the exit poll numbers suffer from accuracy issues due to a small sample size. Nonetheless, I do not find it implausible that Hispanics swung from 66-34 Carter to 56-37 Mondale, with the small Hispanic electorate back then probably disproportionately well-off and Cuban compared to now. Also, it seems that Mondale’s performance in the RGV was quite underwhelming (although nowhere near as bad as Biden’s).

Yeah but Wikipedia says the opposite i.e. 56-37 Carter and 66-34 Mondale.
I agree with you that the "Reagan+13" scenario is not implausible; if anything it is more plausible than the "Reagan-13" scenario, but the latter is what is reported.
Anyway, I take exit polls of Hispanics now with a grain of salt, let alone those of Hispanics in the 1980's.

Oh yes, I got it the wrong way round. Now that is odd...

[jdk]

1. Where are you taking the Reagan data from? It seems impossible.

2. I don't buy for a second that Hispanic voters only swung by 3 points this year.

A caveat about the Reagan data that ought to be added is that Hispanics only made up 2% of the electorate in 1980 and 3% in 1984, so it is possible that the exit poll numbers suffer from accuracy issues due to a small sample size. Nonetheless, I do not find it implausible that Hispanics swung from 66-34 Carter to 56-37 Mondale, with the small Hispanic electorate back then probably disproportionately well-off and Cuban compared to now. Also, it seems that Mondale’s performance in the RGV was quite underwhelming (although nowhere near as bad as Biden’s).

Yeah but Wikipedia says the opposite i.e. 56-37 Carter and 66-34 Mondale.
I agree with you that the "Reagan+13" scenario is not implausible; if anything it is more plausible than the "Reagan-13" scenario, but the latter is what is reported.
Anyway, I take exit polls of Hispanics now with a grain of salt, let alone those of Hispanics in the 1980's.

I messed up with Reagan and got 80 and 84 switched, and I read it as him having gained +13 instead losing -13, so I removed that one. (side note: considering that Carter drop in support from the Hispanic vote in 1980 was greater than 1976, and Mondale did better against Reagan than Carter did, could there have been something about Carter that the Hispanic population didn't like?)  But the rest is still accurate according to the exit polling.

Still, it's interesting that every incumbent since Bush 41 has made gains among the Hispanic vote that far outweighed the gains among the rest of the population.

[Asta]

Worth noting that similar dynamics goes on with Asians too.
I wonder if it's an immigrant thing.

D-R (CNN exit poll)

1992: 31-55 (-24)
1996: 44-48 (-4) 20 point swing to Clinton

2000: 55-41 (+14)
2004: 56-44 (+12) 2 point swing to Bush

2008: 62-35 (+27)
2012: 73-26 (+47) 20 point swing to Obama

2016: 65-27 (+38)
2020: 61-34 (+27) 11 point swing to Trump

[jdk]

Worth noting that similar dynamics goes on with Asians too.
I wonder if it's an immigrant thing.

D-R (CNN exit poll)

1992: 31-55 (-24)
1996: 44-48 (-4) 20 point swing to Clinton

2000: 55-41 (+14)
2004: 56-44 (+12) 2 point swing to Bush

2008: 62-35 (+27)
2012: 73-26 (+47) 20 point swing to Obama

2016: 65-27 (+38)
2020: 61-34 (+27) 11 point swing to Trump

With Asians, I don't think it's as much of an incumbency thing as it is Trump managing to stop the long term trend of Asians shifting left, considering that up until 2016 the Democratic candidate performed better in each election (if you consider  that the 2 point swing to Bush was slightly less than the overall national swing which makes it consistent with the trend).

[jdk]

Here's how the black vote has trended... according to this both times Reagan ran he made huge losses in the black vote, but since then, every GOP incumbent has made gains while every Democratic incumbent has made small losses.  Although it looks like overall, ever since Reagan the Republican candidate has made gains among the black vote in every election except for 2000 and 2008

Carter
1976 D+66
1980 D+69
Gain of 3 (+16 compared to overall electorate)

Reagan
1980 D+69
1984 D+82
Loss of 13 (-21 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 41
1988 D+78
1992 D+73
Gain of 5 (+18 compared to overall electorate)

Loss of 4
Clinton
1992 D+73
1996 D+72
Loss of 1 (-3 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 43
2000 D+81
2004 D+77
Gain of 4 (+1 compared to overall electorate)

Obama:
2008 D+91
2012 D+87
Loss of 4 (-1 compared to overall electorate)

Trump:
2016 D+80
2020 D+75
Gained of 5 (+9 compared to overall electorate)

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Worth noting that similar dynamics goes on with Asians too.
I wonder if it's an immigrant thing.

D-R (CNN exit poll)

1992: 31-55 (-24)
1996: 44-48 (-4) 20 point swing to Clinton

2000: 55-41 (+14)
2004: 56-44 (+12) 2 point swing to Bush

2008: 62-35 (+27)
2012: 73-26 (+47) 20 point swing to Obama

2016: 65-27 (+38)
2020: 61-34 (+27) 11 point swing to Trump

Exit polls aren't great and especially this year.

Additionally, other exit polls show Biden getting 68% of the Asian vote. NBC's exit poll shows Biden getting 63%.

[DaleCooper]

The hispanic swing does seem a bit too small in this data. That said, I have read a couple of articles now that have reported that the nationwide swing is fairly negligible, but it's specific areas where the hispanic vote dramatically shifted towards Trump.

[jdk]

The hispanic swing does seem a bit too small in this data. That said, I have read a couple of articles now that have reported that the nationwide swing is fairly negligible, but it's specific areas where the hispanic vote dramatically shifted towards Trump.

There was a noticeable swing in California towards Biden with, where he improved his margin among Latinos over Hillary's by nearly double digits.  Considering that California is home to about 1/3 of America's Hispanic population.   That offsets a lot of the losses in the rest of the country.

[Annatar]

The hispanic swing does seem a bit too small in this data. That said, I have read a couple of articles now that have reported that the nationwide swing is fairly negligible, but it's specific areas where the hispanic vote dramatically shifted towards Trump.

There was a noticeable swing in California towards Biden with, where he improved his margin among Latinos over Hillary's by nearly double digits.  Considering that California is home to about 1/3 of America's Hispanic population.   That offsets a lot of the losses in the rest of the country.

Biden did not improve his margin in CA by double digits among Hispanics vs Hillary, how did Los Angeles County swing towards Trump if there was a double digit Hispanic swing to Biden.

[Intell]

The hispanic swing does seem a bit too small in this data. That said, I have read a couple of articles now that have reported that the nationwide swing is fairly negligible, but it's specific areas where the hispanic vote dramatically shifted towards Trump.

There was a noticeable swing in California towards Biden with, where he improved his margin among Latinos over Hillary's by nearly double digits.  Considering that California is home to about 1/3 of America's Hispanic population.   That offsets a lot of the losses in the rest of the country.

??

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Here's how the black vote has trended... according to this both times Reagan ran he made huge losses in the black vote, but since then, every GOP incumbent has made gains while every Democratic incumbent has made small losses.  Although it looks like overall, ever since Reagan the Republican candidate has made gains among the black vote in every election except for 2000 and 2008

Carter
1976 D+66
1980 D+69
Gain of 3 (+16 compared to overall electorate)

Reagan
1980 D+69
1984 D+82
Loss of 13 (-21 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 41
1988 D+78
1992 D+73
Gain of 5 (+18 compared to overall electorate)

Loss of 4
Clinton
1992 D+73
1996 D+72
Loss of 1 (-3 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 43
2000 D+81
2004 D+77
Gain of 4 (+1 compared to overall electorate)

Obama:
2008 D+91
2012 D+87
Loss of 4 (-1 compared to overall electorate)

Trump:
2016 D+80
2020 D+75
Gained of 5 (+9 compared to overall electorate)

I doubt reagan made big losses with the black voter, he improved in the black belt and most big cities.

[lfromnj]

Here's how the black vote has trended... according to this both times Reagan ran he made huge losses in the black vote, but since then, every GOP incumbent has made gains while every Democratic incumbent has made small losses.  Although it looks like overall, ever since Reagan the Republican candidate has made gains among the black vote in every election except for 2000 and 2008

Carter
1976 D+66
1980 D+69
Gain of 3 (+16 compared to overall electorate)

Reagan
1980 D+69
1984 D+82
Loss of 13 (-21 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 41
1988 D+78
1992 D+73
Gain of 5 (+18 compared to overall electorate)

Loss of 4
Clinton
1992 D+73
1996 D+72
Loss of 1 (-3 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 43
2000 D+81
2004 D+77
Gain of 4 (+1 compared to overall electorate)

Obama:
2008 D+91
2012 D+87
Loss of 4 (-1 compared to overall electorate)

Trump:
2016 D+80
2020 D+75
Gained of 5 (+9 compared to overall electorate)

I doubt reagan made big losses with the black voter, he improved in the black belt and most big cities.

Illinois 1st went from 91-5 to 95-5. It did redistrict a bit but not too much.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Here's how the black vote has trended... according to this both times Reagan ran he made huge losses in the black vote, but since then, every GOP incumbent has made gains while every Democratic incumbent has made small losses.  Although it looks like overall, ever since Reagan the Republican candidate has made gains among the black vote in every election except for 2000 and 2008

Carter
1976 D+66
1980 D+69
Gain of 3 (+16 compared to overall electorate)

Reagan
1980 D+69
1984 D+82
Loss of 13 (-21 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 41
1988 D+78
1992 D+73
Gain of 5 (+18 compared to overall electorate)

Loss of 4
Clinton
1992 D+73
1996 D+72
Loss of 1 (-3 compared to overall electorate)

Bush 43
2000 D+81
2004 D+77
Gain of 4 (+1 compared to overall electorate)

Obama:
2008 D+91
2012 D+87
Loss of 4 (-1 compared to overall electorate)

Trump:
2016 D+80
2020 D+75
Gained of 5 (+9 compared to overall electorate)

I doubt reagan made big losses with the black voter, he improved in the black belt and most big cities.

Illinois 1st went from 91-5 to 95-5. It did redistrict a bit but not too much.

It seems like Chicago was a rare exception. if you look at the swing map, many other maj-black places swung r.