What’s the largest margin a race was won by when it was initially falsely called?
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  What’s the largest margin a race was won by when it was initially falsely called?
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Author Topic: What’s the largest margin a race was won by when it was initially falsely called?  (Read 589 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: November 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM »

Falsely called for the eventual loser?

Has a race ever been won by 3+ by a candidate who was initially called by networks as the loser?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2020, 05:22:24 PM »

I think David Valadao had a 7 point lead in his 2018 race.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2020, 05:27:19 PM »

I think David Valadao had a 7 point lead in his 2018 race.


I worded my question weird, sorry

I mean this:

Let’s say networks call x as winner over y prematurely

What’s the largest margin a y has ever gone on to eventually win by?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2020, 05:31:13 PM »

I think David Valadao had a 7 point lead in his 2018 race.


I worded my question weird, sorry

I mean this:

Let’s say networks call x as winner over y prematurely

What’s the largest margin a y has ever gone on to eventually win by?

Cori Bush I think beat Lacy Clay by a rather comfortable margin.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2020, 07:06:02 PM »

I think David Valadao had a 7 point lead in his 2018 race.


I worded my question weird, sorry

I mean this:

Let’s say networks call x as winner over y prematurely

What’s the largest margin a y has ever gone on to eventually win by?

Cori Bush I think beat Lacy Clay by a rather comfortable margin.

I think you're misunderstanding the question.

It's probably NH SEN 1996.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2020, 11:16:58 PM »

I think David Valadao had a 7 point lead in his 2018 race.


I worded my question weird, sorry

I mean this:

Let’s say networks call x as winner over y prematurely

What’s the largest margin a y has ever gone on to eventually win by?

Cori Bush I think beat Lacy Clay by a rather comfortable margin.

I think you're misunderstanding the question.

It's probably NH SEN 1996.
1996 was a year where polls had Clinton up by much more than the eventual margin and the exit polls supported that idea. The networks were making calls for a Clinton +15 year when it turned out be Clinton +8, leading to a lot of questionable early calls and a few wrong ones.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2020, 02:26:24 AM »

1948?
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kcguy
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2020, 10:35:02 AM »

Before the internet days, the networks would have a continuous scroll of down-ballot races at the bottom of the TV screen.

On election night 1998, I seem to remember CNN having a win indicator beside Congressman Mike Pappas's name.  After all the votes were counted, Rush Holt would beat him by 2.9 points.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2020, 09:13:42 PM »

I think David Valadao had a 7 point lead in his 2018 race.


I worded my question weird, sorry

I mean this:

Let’s say networks call x as winner over y prematurely

What’s the largest margin a y has ever gone on to eventually win by?

Cori Bush I think beat Lacy Clay by a rather comfortable margin.

I think you're misunderstanding the question.

It's probably NH SEN 1996.
1996 was a year where polls had Clinton up by much more than the eventual margin and the exit polls supported that idea. The networks were making calls for a Clinton +15 year when it turned out be Clinton +8, leading to a lot of questionable early calls and a few wrong ones.

The 1996 polling error might be more similar to this year's error than the 2016 one actually, given how big it was and that both Biden and Clinton had landslide leads. However, if Trump had gotten the same error as 1996 he would have won.
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