Will partisanship be more extreme or less extreme than it was in 2020 in the 2022 elections?

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the past several cycles, partisanship has become a bigger and bigger factor in determining the outcome of down ballot races, particularly on the federal level. This cycle, it was particularly noticeable, especially in the senate; outside Maine, overperformances from "strong" canidates were underwhelming. We saw a simillar situation in the House. Many Democrats from Trump districts lost, and Democrats only flip was in a district Biden won (alongside the 2 NC default flips).

Some argue that Joe Biden brings a message of unity, and will help to decrease political tensions between the parties; yes, partisanship will still be very relevant in 2022, but people may feel more comfortable voting for someone of the other party if Joe Biden isn't as offensive as a President. This election was a breaking point because it was for the most part a binary choice; keep Trump or get rid of him, and down ballot canidates were just part of the package of that choice. This election was also higher turnout, which meant a lot of straight ticket lower propensity voters.

Others argue that partisanship and polarization has become too engrained in our nature, current trends will continue, and 2022 will be a binary decision on whether one supports Joe Biden or not. Especially if Republicans maintain their senate majority by winning at least 1 GA runoff, gridlock will only make people on all sides more and more fed up, and people will blame who they want to blame.

In my view, this sort of partisanship is dangerous. Instead of having people who work in the best interests of the state or district they represent, people vote for someone who is just a vote for a majority of certain ideologies. Remember when both parties had pretty extensive tail ends? This escalates in cycles of less split-ticket voting, causing less "swing senators or representatives", causing less split ticket voting, and so on. The Senate, and especially the House, the body set up to represent people, actually need to do their job in representing the people; most people want results, not political in-fighting. I'm sure all of us on this forum have our own beliefs on who caused this to be a problem in the first place, but I think that regardless of who you blame, we can all agree it's a problem that needs to be fixed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'll argue that 2018 was less partisan than 2016. However 2020 felt more partisan than 2018. So I would argue perhaps more partisan than 2018 but less so than 2020

I would have to agree; generally off years have a higher share of more reliable/engaged voters in the electorate, who may be more willing to split ticket for someone they like even if they were of the opposing party. With that being said, if Rs had taken WV and MT more seriously, they prolly could've won both.