Ohio Steve Chabot pledges to run again

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveChabot/status/1331705524954542082
Not a good sign for Ds hoping for a free cinci seat.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveChabot/status/1331705524954542082
Not a good sign for Ds hoping for a free cinci seat.

Grifters gonna grift.

[S019]

I mean the reform means you basically have to cede a Cincinnati seat (you can get away with a split, but it's very ugly and would upset many incumbents), he might have a chance in a Biden midterm in that seat but will be DOA in a neutral year.

Also I believe OH has legislative referendums, so if OH Reps draw a 13-2 or 12-3, OH Dems are going to push for a genuine commission via referendum

[lfromnj]

I mean the reform means you basically have to cede a Cincinnati seat (you can get away with a split, but it's very ugly and would upset many incumbents), he might have a chance in a Biden midterm in that seat but will be DOA in a neutral year.

Lol, it wouldn't upset anyone besides Wenstrup and Chabot one of whom would have has to move out to the suburbs. But if you cede the seat both of them have to move out and primary each other.

[S019]

I mean the reform means you basically have to cede a Cincinnati seat (you can get away with a split, but it's very ugly and would upset many incumbents), he might have a chance in a Biden midterm in that seat but will be DOA in a neutral year.

Lol, it wouldn't upset anyone besides Wenstrup and Chabot one of whom would have has to move out to the suburbs. But if you cede the seat both of them have to move out and primary each other.

No, Davidson is also forced into a primary with Chabot, so one of Wenstrup, Davidson, Chabot won't have a seat

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Wonderful

[VAR]

Wonderful

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't have to worry about OH until 2024/2026, when Brown and an open Gov race, I am sure Tim Ryan is looking to 2026,, to run for Gov, he served in the House until then or if he is defeated he will be in BIDEN cabinet until 2026

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah it won’t hold lol.
I wouldn’t be concerned.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Endorsed!

[lfromnj]

Yeah it won’t hold lol.
I wouldn’t be concerned.

The gerrymander?

You are basically removing the woke parts of the county besides Cinci itself and then adding Rural Appalachia.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::00545be0-8dfe-4d4f-995e-fc9bf09d21a1

Rrh had this map and you can get it upto Trump+10 in 2016 and it was only Mccain +2 which means it actually trended R.Those rural precincts are swinging hard R. The left trending parts of Hamilton then can be placed in a more suburban oriented district thats more strongly R.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah it won’t hold lol.
I wouldn’t be concerned.

The gerrymander?

You are basically removing the woke parts of the county besides Cinci itself and then adding Rural Appalachia.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::00545be0-8dfe-4d4f-995e-fc9bf09d21a1

Rrh had this map and you can get it upto Trump+10 in 2016 and it was only Mccain +2. Those rural precicnts are swinging hard R. The left trending parts of Hamilton then can be placed in a more suburban oriented district thats more strongly R.

That’s just asking for Democrats to put an actual redistricting commission with teeth on the ballot.

[lfromnj]

Yeah it won’t hold lol.
I wouldn’t be concerned.

The gerrymander?

You are basically removing the woke parts of the county besides Cinci itself and then adding Rural Appalachia.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::00545be0-8dfe-4d4f-995e-fc9bf09d21a1

Rrh had this map and you can get it upto Trump+10 in 2016 and it was only Mccain +2. Those rural precicnts are swinging hard R. The left trending parts of Hamilton then can be placed in a more suburban oriented district thats more strongly R.

That’s just asking for Democrats to put an actual redistricting commission with teeth on the ballot.

Yeah the rest of the map is fairly clean, the Cinci district is the only district one has to make extremely ugly to make it Likely R.

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah it won’t hold lol.
I wouldn’t be concerned.

The gerrymander?

You are basically removing the woke parts of the county besides Cinci itself and then adding Rural Appalachia.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::00545be0-8dfe-4d4f-995e-fc9bf09d21a1

Rrh had this map and you can get it upto Trump+10 in 2016 and it was only Mccain +2. Those rural precicnts are swinging hard R. The left trending parts of Hamilton then can be placed in a more suburban oriented district thats more strongly R.

That’s just asking for Democrats to put an actual redistricting commission with teeth on the ballot.

They will do it anyway, OH democrats like MO democrats think the only reason they are losing is because of gerrymandering so they are probably going to try to pass an amendment similar to one which was passed in MO in 2018 (which actually would have a led to a democratic gerrymandering).

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yeah it won’t hold lol.
I wouldn’t be concerned.

The gerrymander?

You are basically removing the woke parts of the county besides Cinci itself and then adding Rural Appalachia.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::00545be0-8dfe-4d4f-995e-fc9bf09d21a1

Rrh had this map and you can get it upto Trump+10 in 2016 and it was only Mccain +2. Those rural precicnts are swinging hard R. The left trending parts of Hamilton then can be placed in a more suburban oriented district thats more strongly R.

That’s just asking for Democrats to put an actual redistricting commission with teeth on the ballot.

They will do it anyway, OH democrats like MO democrats think the only reason they are losing is because of gerrymandering so they are probably going to try to pass an amendment similar to one which was passed in MO in 2018 (which actually would have a led to a democratic gerrymandering).

It’s absolutely why they don’t have a Cincinnati anchored seat. That’s not really debatable. Steve Chabot will only remain in Congress long-term if he’s given a gerrymandered seat again.

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah it won’t hold lol.
I wouldn’t be concerned.

The gerrymander?

You are basically removing the woke parts of the county besides Cinci itself and then adding Rural Appalachia.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::00545be0-8dfe-4d4f-995e-fc9bf09d21a1

Rrh had this map and you can get it upto Trump+10 in 2016 and it was only Mccain +2. Those rural precicnts are swinging hard R. The left trending parts of Hamilton then can be placed in a more suburban oriented district thats more strongly R.

That’s just asking for Democrats to put an actual redistricting commission with teeth on the ballot.

They will do it anyway, OH democrats like MO democrats think the only reason they are losing is because of gerrymandering so they are probably going to try to pass an amendment similar to one which was passed in MO in 2018 (which actually would have a led to a democratic gerrymandering).

Have you seen the Ohio map?
Yes OH Democrats have more problems besides gerrymandering, but the Cincinnati seat is an egregious mander.

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean the reform means you basically have to cede a Cincinnati seat (you can get away with a split, but it's very ugly and would upset many incumbents), he might have a chance in a Biden midterm in that seat but will be DOA in a neutral year.

Lol, it wouldn't upset anyone besides Wenstrup and Chabot one of whom would have has to move out to the suburbs. But if you cede the seat both of them have to move out and primary each other.

No, Davidson is also forced into a primary with Chabot, so one of Wenstrup, Davidson, Chabot won't have a seat

Davidson is from Troy, which is quite far from the Cincinnati area. He lives quite close to Jim Jordan (Urbana) though.