Why did Trump overperform George W. Bush in South Texas?

[Woody]

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX and FL aren't battlegrounds, but GA and NC are, Warnock, Perdue will win but due to Cuban Embargo in FL and gun rights in TX, NC and GA are purple states🤣🤣🤣

[Bomster]

Post deleted by moderator  

Uh can we not?

[OSR stands with Israel]

SNIP

You should be ashamed of your self for posting such a racist and bigoted post

[Bootes Void]

Presumably ground game and maybe alot of people work in border patrol so Dems threatening it could mean less employment opportunities. I would also argue oil as well, as the 2020 Dems are most hostile to fossil fuels than they were back in 2004.

Lastly social/cultural conservatism may play a role as the Dems have been more associated social/cultural liberalism than they were in the past

[MR DARK BRANDON]

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Why did Biden overperform Clinton 1996 in Georgia


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[It’s so Joever]

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Why did Biden overperform Clinton 1996 in Georgia


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Suburbs.
Now answer the original question.

[Tartarus Sauce]

He didn't outperform Bush though, at least not in the major populous counties.

Cameron County
2000: 53.5 D, 44.8 R
2004: 49.2 D, 50.3 R (Bush flipped it)
2020: 56.1 D, 42.9 R

Hidalgo County
2000: 60.8 D, 37.9 R
2004: 54.9 D, 44.8 R
2020: 58 D, 41 R (outperformed Bush in 2000 but not 2004)

Webb County
2000: 57.4 D, 41.4 R
2004: 56.9 D, 42.7 R
2020: 61.1 D, 37.9 R (underperformed both of Bush's runs)

This underperformance also extends out to the western region of the Mexican border, with Bush achieving 43.2% of the vote in El Paso County in 2004, but Trump only getting 31.6 in 2020. And of course, Trump massively underperformed Bush in the South Texas urban areas not next to the border. Bush won Bexar County by 10 and Nueces County by 14 in 2004 while Trump lost Bexar County by 18 and won Nueces County by only 3 in 2020.

Trump only really overperformed Bush in rural South Texas, he almost certainly underperformed him in the region as a whole, especially compared to Bush's 2004 numbers.

[Hammy]

How does a 2016-20 R swing = outperforming Bush?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

For a Biden victory, the ratio of "Why did Trump do better than ___ in ___?" threads to "Why did Biden do better than ___ in ___?" threads seem to be growing by the day


And I don't want to hear "Because Biden's was simply 'increased suburban support'" because Trump's could be simply defined by "increased minority support (And even that could warrant a distinction between urban & rural minorities)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

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Why did Biden overperform Clinton 1996 in Georgia


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Suburbs.
Now answer the original question.

I’m not answering a troll question

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I’m going to try to actually answer the question here or at least give a little detail.

After seeing all the election results for all the counties bordering the Rio Grande in Texas, the biggest observation I have is that in almost all cases Democrats slipped a bit from their 2016 vote totals (losing maybe 8-10% of their raw vote total at most) while Trump added many more votes to his total than the Democrats lost, in some cases even doubling or tripling his vote total.

Take Starr County for example, where Biden received 9,099 votes compared to Clinton’s 9,289 in 2016, for a net loss of 190 votes. If you only knew this information, you’d just conclude turnout was a bit less than 2016 and that Biden still won the county comfortably, or that there was a small swing to Trump. But Trump went from 2,224 votes in 2016  to 8,224 votes in 2020, an eye-popping increase of 6,000 votes, nearly quadrupling his number of votes from four years prior.

Therefore, my hypothesis is that Trump improved so much in South Texas because of a large number of newly registered voters who voted for him, along with perhaps a smaller number of voters who changed their minds. It would be really interesting to see demographic information on the new voters.