CIP Election Tracker - November 2020

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election Final
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 36 votes 55.38% ✓
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 29 votes 44.62%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Lincoln Referendums Final

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 43 votes 66.15% ✓
Aye: 18 votes 27.69%
Abstain: 4 votes 6.15%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Nay: 35 votes 53.85% ✓
Aye: 21 votes 32.31%
Abstain: 9 votes 13.85%

Last Vote Counted: Illiniwek
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/29 6:50 PM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 36 votes 55.38% ✓
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 29 votes 44.62%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: R2D2 +7 votes 10.76%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

[OBD]

Glad to announce that KoopaDaQuick will be helping with election night graphics! Welcome to the team!

In other news, I've made some slight changes to the Election Tracker - I've moved my estimations of the state of the race to the EVP. Speaking of the EVP, if anyone has suggestions for alterations to the algorithm I'd be happy to hear them (it hasn't been tweaked since the October elections).

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

ftr gonna clarify that these are my graphics and that i also gave my full consent to cascadian cyan canine to use 'em

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 22% reporting (14/65)
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 7 votes 50%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 7 votes 50%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Lincoln Referendums 22% reporting (14/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Aye: 7 votes 50%
Nay: 7 votes 50%
Abstain: 0 votes 0%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Aye: 9 votes 64.29%
Nay: 4 votes 28.57%
Abstain: 1 votes 7.14%

Last Vote Counted: Mike88
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/27 10:02 AM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 35 votes 53.34%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 30 votes 46.66%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: R2D2 +5 votes 6.58%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

Good morning, Atlasia!

Thus far, not much interesting has occurred in this race, though there are a few surprises. In the all-important gubernatorial election, R2D2 and Ninja have been trading blows throughout the night and are now tied. With no surprises yet, this race appears to be a turnout game - in light of this, we're downgrading R2D2's victory chances to 60%, as Ninja has been able to remain tied despite a voter registration deficit.

Meanwhile, in a major surprise, the Sanction Fast Food referendum actually appears to be competitive - it's currently tied 7-7, with the parties - and zombie voters - being all over the place on this issue. Interestingly, both Gubernatorial candidates oppose this measure, with the pro-side led by Councillors Wulfric and Ishan. Lastly, the Value Added Tax measure appears to be cruising to passage. 

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 34% reporting (22/65)
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 13 votes 55.56%
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 9 votes 44.44%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Lincoln Referendums 34% reporting (22/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 12 votes 54.55%
Aye: 10 votes 45.45%
Abstain: 0 votes 0%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Aye: 13 votes 59.09%
Nay: 8 votes 36.36%
Abstain: 1 votes 4.55%

Last Vote Counted: Blairite
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/27 9:44 PM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 33 votes 50.26%
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 32 votes 49.74%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: Ninja +1 votes 0.52%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

With more votes in, Former Councillor Ninja has taken a 4-vote lead, inching closer to an upset victory. While there haven't been any defections yet, it appears the opposition has carved out a turnout advantage - which is big enough to push the EVP into forecasting Ninja as a narrow one-vote winner, a first. While outstanding Labor votes put R2D2 in a reasonable position, we're downgrading this race to a pure tossup. It's a turnout game now.

Meanwhile, the "Nay" side has taken the lead in the Sanction Fast Food Act referendum, which will surely reassure the bipartisan coalition against it - however, its lead is just 2 votes, which is far too close to comfort. Meanwhile, the Value Added Tax measure has tighted, with "Aye" now just under 60%.

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 49% reporting (32/65)
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 18 votes 56.25%
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 14 votes 43.75%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Lincoln Referendums 49% reporting (32/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 21 votes 65.63%
Aye: 10 votes 31.25%
Abstain: 1 votes 3.13%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Nay: 16 votes 50%
Aye: 13 votes 40.63%
Abstain: 3 votes 9.37%

Last Vote Counted: PittsburghSteel
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/28 9:44 AM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 33 votes 50.01%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 32 votes 49.99%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: R2D2 +1 votes 0.02%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

Saturday Morning Update

[tmthforu94]

Glad to see this stupid fast food bill is failing, just read up on it. The fact that it even passed in the first place just shows (once again) how completely out of touch the Lincoln Council is with reality and how elections are having such little consequence.

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

I could be wrong, but it appears like this isn't a party-line issue.  Everyone is all over the place on it.

However, were such a bill to grace the Southern Chamber, I believe it would be DOA.  We love our Chick-fil-a, Milo's, and Whataburger in the South.

[Continential]

I could be wrong, but it appears like this isn't a party-line issue.  Everyone is all over the place on it.

It passed because of the fact that Wulfric is a meme mainly.

The reason why it's did well in the first place is because of zombie voters not reading it and voting yes and thus not knowing what it is.

[Sirius_]

I could be wrong, but it appears like this isn't a party-line issue.  Everyone is all over the place on it.

However, were such a bill to grace the Southern Chamber, I believe it would be DOA.  We love our Chick-fil-a, Milo's, and Whataburger in the South.

It seems like it was more Labor people voting for it (a few Liberals), but the coalition against it is multipartisan. Like Ishan said the ones voting yes probably didn't read it and simply saw "condemning fast food" as a health thing or an anti-business thing and didn't realize what it did. It was a mistake on our part not to take the referendum seriously at first but now that we've organized our efforts it seems to be going down at the voting booth.

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 60% reporting (39/65)
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 22 votes 56.41%
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 17 votes 43.59%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Lincoln Referendums 60% reporting (39/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 27 votes 69.23% ✓
Aye: 10 votes 25.64%
Abstain: 2 votes 5.13%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Nay: 18 votes 46.15%
Aye: 15 votes 38.46%
Abstain: 6 votes 15.38%

Last Vote Counted: OneJ
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/28 9:35 PM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 34 votes 52%
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 31 votes 48%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: Ninja +3 votes 4%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

About 24 hours to vote are left in Lincoln, and we're now able to make our first projection of the weekend - the Sanction Fast Food Act has been defeated. After taking an early lead to the shock of many, a concerted effort from both governing Labor and the opposition has apparently succeeded in defeating it. Meanwhile, the Value Added Tax also appears to be struggling, losing by 3 votes with a significant amount of abstentions.

Meanwhile, the Labor turnout machine appears to be dropping the ball, as Ninja continues to hold a 5-vote lead. As less and less vote is left to report, this has pushed the EVP to project a modest Ninja win, and our needle has shifted towards the former Councillor accordingly. That said, there could very well be a Sunday Surprise for either side, so stay tuned.  

Also, as I only do updates periodically, there's now a link to Live Updates - ie the spreadsheet where I keep tally of the results as they come in. Feel free to check it out!

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 75% reporting (49/65)
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 25 votes 51.02%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 24 votes 48.98%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Lincoln Referendums 75% reporting (49/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 34 votes 69.39% ✓
Aye: 11 votes 22.45%
Abstain: 4 votes 8.16%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Nay: 23 votes 46.94%
Aye: 17 votes 34.69%
Abstain: 9 votes 18.37%

Last Vote Counted: Peanut
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/29 9:30 AM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 34 votes 51.81%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 31 votes 48.19%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: R2D2 +3 votes 3.62%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

Link to live count

It's officially the final day of the postponed election, and after a mini-dump overnight Governor R2D2 has taken a narrow 1-vote lead, erasing his previous deficit. While there have STILL been no defections, a strong DA-Fed turnout operation has kept this race tight, and regardless of the result they should be proud of their performance. The EVP currently forecasts that R2D2 will ultimately defeat Ninja by around 3 votes. Interestingly, now is the first time since early Friday that Labor-Peace made up a plurality of the electorate.

Meanwhile, the margin against the Sanction Fast Food Act continues to grow, while the Value Added Tax appears unlikely to pass at this time due to a late break towards the NAY side.

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 88% reporting (57/65)
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 29 votes 50.88%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 28 votes 49.12%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Ninja must win 62% of the remaining vote to win.

Lincoln Referendums 88% reporting (57/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 39 votes 68.42% ✓
Aye: 14 votes 24.56%
Abstain: 4 votes 7.02%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Nay: 28 votes 49.12% ✓
Aye: 20 votes 35.09%
Abstain: 9 votes 15.79%

Last Vote Counted: DPKdebator
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/29 2:01 PM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 33 votes 51.29%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 32 votes 48.71%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: R2D2 +1 votes 2.58%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

Link to live count

CIP can now project that the Value Added Tax has been defeated, despite initially being expected to sail through without opposition.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 88% reporting (57/65)
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 29 votes 50.88%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 28 votes 49.12%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Ninja must win 62% of the remaining vote to win.

Lincoln Referendums 88% reporting (57/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 39 votes 68.42% ✓
Aye: 14 votes 24.56%
Abstain: 4 votes 7.02%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Nay: 28 votes 49.12% ✓
Aye: 20 votes 35.09%
Abstain: 9 votes 15.79%

Last Vote Counted: DPKdebator
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/29 2:01 PM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 33 votes 51.29%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 32 votes 48.71%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: R2D2 +1 votes 2.58%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

Link to live count

CIP can now project that the Value Added Tax has been defeated, despite initially being expected to sail through without opposition.

Wut

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 88% reporting (57/65)
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 29 votes 50.88%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 28 votes 49.12%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Ninja must win 62% of the remaining vote to win.

Lincoln Referendums 88% reporting (57/65)

on the passage of the Sanction Fast Food Act
Nay: 39 votes 68.42% ✓
Aye: 14 votes 24.56%
Abstain: 4 votes 7.02%

on the passage of the Lincoln Value Added Tax
Nay: 28 votes 49.12% ✓
Aye: 20 votes 35.09%
Abstain: 9 votes 15.79%

Last Vote Counted: DPKdebator
Invalid:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is a version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing).

updated 11/29 2:01 PM PST

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 33 votes 51.29%
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 32 votes 48.71%
Other: 0 votes 0%
Predicted Margin: R2D2 +1 votes 2.58%

Live Rating:
graphics made by KoopaDaQuick

Link to live count

CIP can now project that the Value Added Tax has been defeated, despite initially being expected to sail through without opposition.

Wut

Well, referendums usually seem to pass, and this one was far less controversial than the Sanction Fast Food Act. This references the early lead it had on Day 1.

[OBD]

Lincoln Gubernatorial Election 94% reporting (61/65)
Governor R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania): 33 votes 54.1% ✓
Fmr. MC Ninja0428 (Democratic Alliance-New Jersey): 28 votes 45.9%
Other: 0 votes 0%

After a closer than expected race, CIP can now officially call the Lincoln Gubernatorial election for incumbent Governor R2D2 in a critical hold for Labor. Congrats, Mr. Governor-Elect!


graphics made by KoopaDaQuick