Who won the white vote outside the South?
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  Who won the white vote outside the South?
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Author Topic: Who won the white vote outside the South?  (Read 507 times)
TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« on: November 24, 2020, 05:28:48 PM »

I think there’s a good chance Biden won it...Romney won it while losing by roughly the same popular vote margin Trump is this time, but Trump did better with minorities.
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2020, 05:31:58 PM »

Trump by 5% I would say . I think Biden 2020 did Obama 12 among southern whites but I'm not sure about that
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2020, 05:36:13 PM »

I think Trump still narrowly won it although Biden probably won white females outside of south.  Looking at exit polls and comparing to margins I get the following:

Won both white male and white female vote:

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island

Won white vote overall but lost white male

Colorado
Minnesota
Illinois
New Hampshire
Connecticut
New York (right now shows Trump winning it but once final results in, I believe will show Biden)
Delaware
Maryland

Tied overall, Trump white male, Biden white female

New Mexico
New Jersey

Trump won white vote overall, but Biden won white female

Nevada
Wisconsin
Michigan
Alaska

Trump won white overall, tied white female

Arizona

Only blue states where Trump won white female vote were Pennsylvania, Virginia and Georgia and in first two it was by a very slim margin.  Georgia was the real outlier for white vote amongst blue states as Biden did worse amongst whites there than in many red states including even some very red ones like North Dakota, Idaho, Utah, and Kentucky. 

So I think if you remove South, Trump narrowly won white vote, but probably under 5 points but I think Biden probably won white female vote if you remove South.  Biden won whites 18-29 even with South and likely won by close to 20 points amongst them if you remove South.  Also whites 30-44, Biden probably won if you remove South, but whites over 45, Trump still won even without South.
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Annatar
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2020, 05:48:08 PM »

The Edison exit poll has Trump winning Whites aged 18-29 by 9% over Biden, 53-44.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2020, 05:53:39 PM »

The Edison exit poll has Trump winning Whites aged 18-29 by 9% over Biden, 53-44.

The Edison exit poll seems extremely wacky and f--ked up on multiple levels. And that's one of them, because I would literally bet my life that did not happen. AP/Fox seemed to be working with better data, it's much more reasonable across the board.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2020, 06:14:14 PM »

The Edison exit poll has Trump winning Whites aged 18-29 by 9% over Biden, 53-44.

The Edison exit poll seems extremely wacky and f--ked up on multiple levels. And that's one of them, because I would literally bet my life that did not happen. AP/Fox seemed to be working with better data, it's much more reasonable across the board.

I use AP Fox poll myself as seems far more reasonable than Edison one.  Looks like AP Fox also adjusted as real results come in.
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