Rank GOP candidates on best to worst performances in NYC tri-state area in '24

[Suburbia]

I think Donald Trump or Charlie Baker would do the best in terms of performance in the NYC tri-state area in 2024 if they are the 2024 GOP nominee and Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton doing the worst

I can see Suffolk County and Monmouth County going Democratic if Cruz or Cotton are on the ticket.

Best
Donald Trump (If they run)
Donald Trump Jr.
Charlie Baker
Larry Hogan
Josh Hawley
Ron DeSantis
Mike Pompeo
Nikki Haley
Ted Cruz
Tom Cotton

Any more?

[Bootes Void]

All of them would do really poorly in the Trip state area except for Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Ron DeSantis, and maybe Nikki Haley and Donald Trump though the last 2 are really up in the air.

Djt Jr would tank badly nationwide while the evangelicals/middle of the country types like Cotton, Cruz, Pompeo, Hawley and maybe Haley would do very poorly

[Roll Roons]

Hogan/Baker tie
Haley
DeSantis
Hawley
Pompeo
Cruz
Cotton
Trump
Junior

[KaiserDave]

Decent
Charlie Baker
Larry Hogan
Bad
Nikki Haley
Very Bad
Josh Hawley
Ron DeSantis
Mike Pompeo
Disgustingly Bad
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump
The Hangman of the Republic
Tom Cotton

[Suburbia]

Hogan/Baker tie
Haley
DeSantis
Hawley
Pompeo
Cruz
Cotton
Trump
Junior

Can you really see Hogan or Baker winning the cops and the firefighters on Long Island and Staten Island, the heart of the Trump base?

[Roll Roons]

Hogan/Baker tie
Haley
DeSantis
Hawley
Pompeo
Cruz
Cotton
Trump
Junior

Can you really see Hogan or Baker winning the cops and the firefighters on Long Island and Staten Island, the heart of the Trump base?

Yes. Those types do exist in Maryland and Massachusetts, and both Hogan and Baker have done very well with them.

[Suburbia]

Hogan/Baker tie
Haley
DeSantis
Hawley
Pompeo
Cruz
Cotton
Trump
Junior

Can you really see Hogan or Baker winning the cops and the firefighters on Long Island and Staten Island, the heart of the Trump base?

Yes. Those types do exist in Maryland and Massachusetts, and both Hogan and Baker have done very well with them.

They are probably Gore-Bush-McCain-Obama-Trump-Trump voters, they voted for Bush because of Iraq and 9/11, voted McCain 2008, but voted for Obama 2012 and they loved Trump's law and order rhetoric. Not all of them are hard core Republicans, some of them are pro-choice, pro-minimum wage, but when it comes to national security and policing, they vote Republican. They are the Giuliani 2008 base--had he been the nominee.

[kwabbit]

Trump had a lot of cultural appeal in the NYC tri-state area, particularly in areas like Staten Island and the shore area of Jersey. Trump was the closest thing to a Guido president. Most southerner types would tank. Cotton in particular would be a disaster. He would probably lose Monmouth, Suffolk, and Staten Island, lose ground in Ocean, and get completely destroyed in Nassau and Bergen.

Baker
Hogan
DeSantis
Trump
Haley
Hawley
Pompeo
Trump Jr.
Cruz
Cotton

[Yellowhammer]

Hogan/Baker tie
Haley
DeSantis
Hawley
Pompeo
Cruz
Cotton
Trump
Junior

Can you really see Hogan or Baker winning the cops and the firefighters on Long Island and Staten Island, the heart of the Trump base?

Yes. Those types do exist in Maryland and Massachusetts, and both Hogan and Baker have done very well with them.

Hogan and Baker might combine for about 7-8% of the vote in a GOP primary.

[Suburbia]

Trump had a lot of cultural appeal in the NYC tri-state area, particularly in areas like Staten Island and the shore area of Jersey. Trump was the closest thing to a Guido president. Most southerner types would tank. Cotton in particular would be a disaster. He would probably lose Monmouth, Suffolk, and Staten Island, lose ground in Ocean, and get completely destroyed in Nassau and Bergen.

Baker
Hogan
DeSantis
Trump
Haley
Hawley
Pompeo
Trump Jr.
Cruz
Cotton

This. He was a Guido president. Most of the Italian Americans in my area never got attracted to politics until Trump came on the stage. McCain and Romney don't interest them compared to the Carmels and the Bloomfield Hills people.

Trump may be the first and last Guido president.

[Suburbia]

And if he’s faded from view into his law practice and a comfortable semi-retirement in Manhattan and the Hamptons, the fiery former mayor is still a big draw locally, especially among blue-collar conservatives in Staten Island, Long Island and Queens.

New York’s Republican circles might be shrinking, but Giuliani is still active in them, endorsing candidates and appearing at fund-raisers. City Councilman Joe Borelli still uses Giuliani in his campaign mailers – and they resonate, he says, his Staten Island city council district is dominated by Irish and Italian cops and firefighters who lost comrades on 9/11.

The former mayor is especially popular in among the city’s white ethnics on Staten Island and Queens, Borelli said. Those are the same voters Trump will need to turn out if he wants to win states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

“He’s certainly still relevant, and he’s still relevant because I think we can look back at his record, particularly on the reduction of crime, as a success,” Borelli said.

The Republicans need to appeal to that wing of the party, not the crazy Bible Thumpers in Alabama and sadly now Missouri.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/rudy-giuliani-republican-convention-trump-225744

[Suburbia]

Trump had a lot of cultural appeal in the NYC tri-state area, particularly in areas like Staten Island and the shore area of Jersey. Trump was the closest thing to a Guido president. Most southerner types would tank. Cotton in particular would be a disaster. He would probably lose Monmouth, Suffolk, and Staten Island, lose ground in Ocean, and get completely destroyed in Nassau and Bergen.

Baker
Hogan
DeSantis
Trump
Haley
Hawley
Pompeo
Trump Jr.
Cruz
Cotton

Vivek would lose Staten Island and Suffolk to Biden, I think, so would Haley.

[kwabbit]

Trump had a lot of cultural appeal in the NYC tri-state area, particularly in areas like Staten Island and the shore area of Jersey. Trump was the closest thing to a Guido president. Most southerner types would tank. Cotton in particular would be a disaster. He would probably lose Monmouth, Suffolk, and Staten Island, lose ground in Ocean, and get completely destroyed in Nassau and Bergen.

Baker
Hogan
DeSantis
Trump
Haley
Hawley
Pompeo
Trump Jr.
Cruz
Cotton

Vivek would lose Staten Island and Suffolk to Biden, I think, so would Haley.

The GOP might've made durable gains in SI/Long Island. It could've been the environment in NY in 2022, but in 2021 the GOP also did very well in these areas. Vivek would win SI and likely Suffolk IMO. He would be an interesting GE candidate simply for the fact that with no real record he could pivot. He seems like someone who would have no qualms pivoting.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump had a lot of cultural appeal in the NYC tri-state area, particularly in areas like Staten Island and the shore area of Jersey. Trump was the closest thing to a Guido president. Most southerner types would tank. Cotton in particular would be a disaster. He would probably lose Monmouth, Suffolk, and Staten Island, lose ground in Ocean, and get completely destroyed in Nassau and Bergen.

Baker
Hogan
DeSantis
Trump
Haley
Hawley
Pompeo
Trump Jr.
Cruz
Cotton

Cotton is particularly bad but he won't be the nominee. But I'd expect even the southern GOP candidates to improve with asians/hispanics/blacks. It's white people that I think they will crash with

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Trump performed relatively well for a Republican in 2016/2020 in NYC. I think he will do well in 2024 given the state of the NY Democratic Party and the ongoing fallout from the Cuomo scandal.

[Suburbia]

Christie if he was formidable would be good here too, but he is not going to be the nominee.