Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley

[Suburbia]

I think Harris wins because Haley does not appeal to the WWC in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Vice President Kamala Harris/Former Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan-321 EV/52.5%
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley/Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty-217 EV/47.4%

[Suburbia]

Nikki Haley with probably a 40-state sweep.

Even NJ, CT, and DE?

Why would Harris lose in a 40-state sweep?

[Suburbia]

Haley will never win a GOP primary unless she can somehow find a time machine.

Ds traded a lot of rural, small city, and exurban strength for higher propensity professional voters. These people will turn out for Harris. The R side of the trade (non-degree holding voters) are potent because they turn out en masse for someone like Trump but not for someone like Leah Vukmir. Haley is almost precisely the wrong type of fit for these voters.

The more interesting question is how much does turnout plummet for a boring race like this. Harris might crack 70 million votes.

Who can attract the low propensity voters?

[Suburbia]

I can see Harris being a one term president, losing to someone like Hawley or so on in 2028

[Suburbia]

Haley would win but by less than Hawley, DeSantis or even maybe Trump against Harris. Haley's problem is that she will struggle to get the Trump base. She would end up getting most of it but I think she would lose 5 or 10% of it.

PV predictions for 2024:
Haley 48% Harris 48.5%
Hawley 50% Harris 47%
DeSantis 51% Harris 47.5%
Trump 49.5% Harris 48.5%

You think a Republican can win the popular vote against Kamala Harris?

[Suburbia]

Nikki Haley is among the weakest candidates that Republicans might could run. I can't believe people think that Republicans are going to win any meaningful percentage of the suburbs back while maintaining their appeal to the coalition that elected Trump.

Explain.