Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley
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Poll
Question: Who wins this matchup?
#1
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)
 
#2
Ex-Gov. Nikki Haley (R-S.C.)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley  (Read 2999 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: November 24, 2020, 10:41:43 AM »

I think Harris wins because Haley does not appeal to the WWC in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.


Vice President Kamala Harris/Former Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan-321 EV/52.5%
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley/Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty-217 EV/47.4%
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2020, 10:49:46 AM »

Nikki Haley with probably a 40-state sweep.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2020, 11:22:06 AM »

Nikki Haley with probably a 40-state sweep.

Even NJ, CT, and DE?

Why would Harris lose in a 40-state sweep?
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Camaro33
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2020, 11:42:34 AM »

Nikki Haley easily. She recaptures a lot of the suburbs and women, to at least between 2012 and 2016 levels (or better), while maintaining Trump margins in rural areas. She'd probably win the popular vote.
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peenie_weenie
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2020, 11:47:28 AM »

Haley will never win a GOP primary unless she can somehow find a time machine.

Ds traded a lot of rural, small city, and exurban strength for higher propensity professional voters. These people will turn out for Harris. The R side of the trade (non-degree holding voters) are potent because they turn out en masse for someone like Trump but not for someone like Leah Vukmir. Haley is almost precisely the wrong type of fit for these voters.

The more interesting question is how much does turnout plummet for a boring race like this. Harris might crack 70 million votes.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2020, 12:28:09 PM »

Haley will never win a GOP primary unless she can somehow find a time machine.

Ds traded a lot of rural, small city, and exurban strength for higher propensity professional voters. These people will turn out for Harris. The R side of the trade (non-degree holding voters) are potent because they turn out en masse for someone like Trump but not for someone like Leah Vukmir. Haley is almost precisely the wrong type of fit for these voters.

The more interesting question is how much does turnout plummet for a boring race like this. Harris might crack 70 million votes.

Who can attract the low propensity voters?
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leecannon
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2020, 12:34:31 PM »

Haley would loose cause she’d severely underperform with loyal republican voters
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2020, 12:38:14 PM »

I can see Harris being a one term president, losing to someone like Hawley or so on in 2028
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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2020, 12:40:13 PM »

I can see that map happening but the shading in a few states seems off.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2020, 01:09:08 PM »

I can see Harris being a one term president, losing to someone like Hawley or so on in 2028
Can you see the Democrats losing the White House for 12 years or so after 2028?
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SN2903
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2020, 01:59:08 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2020, 02:06:49 PM by SN2903 »

Haley would win but by less than Hawley, DeSantis or even maybe Trump against Harris. Haley's problem is that she will struggle to get the Trump base. She would end up getting most of it but I think she would lose 5 or 10% of it.

PV predictions for 2024:
Haley 48% Harris 48.5%
Hawley 50% Harris 47%
DeSantis 51% Harris 47.5%
Trump 49.5% Harris 48.5%
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bronz4141
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2020, 02:13:25 PM »

Haley would win but by less than Hawley, DeSantis or even maybe Trump against Harris. Haley's problem is that she will struggle to get the Trump base. She would end up getting most of it but I think she would lose 5 or 10% of it.

PV predictions for 2024:
Haley 48% Harris 48.5%
Hawley 50% Harris 47%
DeSantis 51% Harris 47.5%
Trump 49.5% Harris 48.5%

You think a Republican can win the popular vote against Kamala Harris?
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2020, 02:25:23 PM »

I don't see how republicans will win the PV unless they run up the score in red states and keep it close in Blue states.

Also Lol at the people who think the suburbs will go back to magically voting R once Trump leaves
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2020, 02:30:39 PM »

Haley will never win a GOP primary unless she can somehow find a time machine.

Ds traded a lot of rural, small city, and exurban strength for higher propensity professional voters. These people will turn out for Harris. The R side of the trade (non-degree holding voters) are potent because they turn out en masse for someone like Trump but not for someone like Leah Vukmir. Haley is almost precisely the wrong type of fit for these voters.

The more interesting question is how much does turnout plummet for a boring race like this. Harris might crack 70 million votes.

Who can attract the low propensity voters?

The only person that we know for sure can do this is Trump. But I imagine DeSantis, Noem, Hawley, and Carlson could and maybe even Cotton, R. Scott, and Rubio. But Haley and other voters lab-designed to appeal to Romney-Clinton voters (T. Scott, Hogan) would fail in these areas like Romney did.

The difference between 2008/2012 and 2024 is that Kamala Harris is no Obama. She would still bomb really, really badly in core R areas. But the turnout for her opponent wouldn't be as high.
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Avery
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« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2020, 02:50:53 PM »

Harris would win, she would recapture some of the Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump base and hold on to the Obama-Obama-Trump-Biden base and likely hold on to, if not expand into, the white suburb vote that Biden won this year. She would also likely expand on Biden in the south. Haley wouldn't have the appeal that Trump did, she wouldn't be able to keep the turnout that Trump managed.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2020, 03:09:23 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2020, 07:50:53 PM by DaleCooper »

Nikki Haley is among the weakest candidates that Republicans might run. I can't believe people think that Republicans are going to win any meaningful percentage of the suburbs back while maintaining their appeal to the coalition that elected Trump.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2020, 03:20:57 PM »

Kamala would curb-stomp Nikki Haley lol.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2020, 03:30:13 PM »

Nikki Haley is among the weakest candidates that Republicans might could run. I can't believe people think that Republicans are going to win any meaningful percentage of the suburbs back while maintaining their appeal to the coalition that elected Trump.

Explain.
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VBM
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« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2020, 05:21:34 PM »

Haley is one of the few politicians who is actually more overrated than Harris
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2020, 07:03:28 PM »

Probably the two most overhyped political talents going. But your map is basically where I have generic d vs generic r, so I’d say it’s about right.
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SN2903
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« Reply #20 on: November 24, 2020, 07:32:16 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2020, 07:38:03 PM by SN2903 »

Haley would win but by less than Hawley, DeSantis or even maybe Trump against Harris. Haley's problem is that she will struggle to get the Trump base. She would end up getting most of it but I think she would lose 5 or 10% of it.

PV predictions for 2024:
Haley 48% Harris 48.5%
Hawley 50% Harris 47%
DeSantis 51% Harris 47.5%
Trump 49.5% Harris 48.5%

You think a Republican can win the popular vote against Kamala Harris?
Yes I do. She is an awful candidate. GOP is gaining with minorities.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2020, 07:34:26 PM »

It's very difficult to imagine a universe where Haley wins the primary, but in one where she does, she likely wins the general.
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SN2903
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« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2020, 07:35:55 PM »

I don't see how republicans will win the PV unless they run up the score in red states and keep it close in Blue states.

Also Lol at the people who think the suburbs will go back to magically voting R once Trump leaves
No but the dems overperformed in the suburbs in 2020. There will be movement back in 2024. GOP can win the PV by running up the south, getting to 35 36% in CA, winning the Midwest big 3 states by 3-4% (MI, WI, PA) and increasing with Hispanics: winning Arizona, Nevada and getting close in New Mexico.
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SN2903
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« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2020, 07:37:28 PM »

Haley is one of the few politicians who is actually more overrated than Harris
How? She could be underrated.
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« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2020, 08:56:07 PM »

Nikki Haley would win. Might be closer than expected though.
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